Monthly Archives: October 2013

Getting to know Utah: Playing hard

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For awhile now I’ve been stuck on this quote from Larry Krystkowiak at media day. The 6’9″ catcher of bike thieves had this to say about his program:

I think, that playing hard is a talent.

And I don’t think he’s wrong. I really don’t. But my goodness is this the most little brother thing imaginable? I can wrap my mind around the fact that you’ve been overhauling a roster for three consecutive seasons and started with a squad capable of being one of the worst high major, D1 teams of all-time (finished 6-25). I don’t love this quote because I feel it’s a consolation; an admission that everyone is going to be better than you before anyone steps on the floor. We’re going to play harder because it’s our only shot. It’s commonplace that high motors win ball games, and so starting each game under the guise that you can only win if you play hard feels short sighted. Defeatist. But before I get too far in to one quote, allow me…

Why I love them: Jordan Loveridge. I’ve said it in a previous post that one man does not a team make but one man can redefine a program. While those statements contradict one another, Loveridge is a talented ball player; and not just because he plays hard. He’s a big body with the ability to stretch the floor and he can cause fits. Particularly with the emergence of fellow sophomore Brandon Taylor. A season ago, Taylor took his sweet time in finding the floor and perhaps letting his talents flourish. But as the season wore on, he garnered more tick and didn’t let K down – averaging 11/1/2 in the season’s final five games as the Utes closed 4-1 with a win over #19 Oregon (in which Taylor dropped 14 points). What I’m getting at is he peaked as the Utes were peaking and I like these sort of coincidences. I like maturing freshmen heading into their sophomore seasons. I like Brandon Taylor and Jordan Loveridge. I’m beginning to like Utah’s actual talent.

Why I hate them: Once again Larry K is bringing in a fresh new crop of Runnin’ Utes. This year it’s seven noobs which means we have to call the aforementioned Loveridge and Taylor “veterans.” Laughable, no? Such is reality inside the Huntsman Center and it’s reason enough not to love this team. Continuity will go a long way in restoring what this program will become and that begins with Loveridge and Taylor.

Stat you need to know:

40

Percentage of returning minutes played. That’s the fewest in the Pac-12. The question, however, becomes whether or not that’s good or bad news. The perspective of the former would suggest that one wouldn’t want to return too much from a 15-18 team that finished 10th in the conference. Not returning much is another clean slate. The contrary opinion is such that 15-18 was an improvement. Losing 60% of the minutes that contributed to the Utes’ best season since 2009 is detrimental to the continued, year-over-year progress K has been making. What do you think?

Quotable:

“Larry Krystkowiak would back everyone down and you wouldn’t be able to keep him from scoring in the paint.  Not that he couldn’t shoot.  But that’s what he would do.  Then he definitely would foul you every time you had the ball.  So he would be tough.” – Lorenzo Romar on which Pac-12 coach wins in a 1-on-1 tournament

Outlook: It’s an improving one. The Runnin’ Utes aren’t soon to compete for a Pac-12 title or even a first round bye in the Pac-12 tournament (top-4 finish); but they’re going to be better once again and we can start to take them more seriously. Their schedule is starting to look less MWC and more Pac-12. Only St. Katherine College is a glaring blemish of childishness this season. Of note: The StK Firebirds will be taking on my Alma Mater, the UCSD Tritons, on 11/27. Larry K is building a good thing in Salt Lake but he’s taking his sweet time. That’s probably the right thing to do but with that comes with further growing pains and 2013-14 won’t soon be any different. But it will be better and they’re going to win a handful of those games you thought they had no business competing in. Because, you know, playing hard takes talent.

Getting to know USC: They’re nice

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Let’s get serious. If we’re going to discuss USC basketball we’re going to talk about Andy Enfield’s wife comments about UCLA, “Wanna play slow? Go to UCLA.” Boooom! And then he swiftly glowed about his respect for “Steve” and the UCLA program. I don’t doubt his sincerity, but I also don’t fully believe the fact that he wants that spice behind closed doors. In a recent meeting a co-worker told me that if you’re going to write a marketing email that everyone is going to like you’re going to be boring. No one likes boring. No one plays for boring. So Dunk City needed to make a splash. Dunk City has to come into Los Angeles – which is UCLA’ s town – and make itself loved. To be loved, someone’s gotta hate you. Because you’re either loved, hated, or forgotten. Andy Enfield aims to not soon be forgotten.

Amanda_Marcum-5

Why I love them: This team has almost nothing going for it from the standpoint of a talented roster. This is a predicament that – in the realm of sports – not conducive to left column. USC is not going to win many ball games. But they’re winning the press conference. They’ve won a recruiting battle. And Mrs. Enfield. Pe’Shon Howard is a nice transfer and Omar Oraby is gigantic. Byron Wesley returns after a sound sophomore campaign and JT Terrell is going to shoot more often than Lane Kiffin changes jobs. Darion Clark won a title at Oak Hill Academy and arrives in LA by way of transfer from Charlotte. DJ Haley brings all seven feet of himself to the Galen Center from VCU… along with his 1.9 points and 1.9 rebounds per game. So many nice parts, right?

Why I hate them: Ever asked someone how their date went and they say, “Good time. He was nice.” Yeah, game over. Nothing good is ever nice and everything inside the Galen Center just feels nice. JT Terrell is stoked to be let loose as an athlete (“Been a lot of people getting dunked on in practice”) as I imagine everyone else is. But when two of your greatest assets – at least on paper – are seven-plus footers (Oraby and Haley), well then your run-n-gun, up-tempo offense wouldn’t seem to have the right pieces. I’m excited about USC’s direction, but it’s just really nice right now.

Stat you need to know:

11:38:56

Andy Enfield’s time on stage at Pac-12 Media Day. Worth noting, Steve Alford’s time on stage was 14:54:45. Who’s faster?

Quotable:

“We play up-tempo basketball here. If you want to play slow, go to UCLA.” – Andy Enfield’s quote that ain’t going anywhere.

Outlook: I suppose it’s a loaded question because, amongst all of the teams we’ve previewed, in the long term USC has the greatest ceiling. Or at least they’ve got the best opportunity to become a regular dancer. They’re sure as shit not there yet. Katin Reinhardt is riding the pine and won’t take the court until Jordan McLaughlin arrives on campus. 2013-14 won’t be easy to swallow in the Galen Center but neither was Bozo Ball. Did you know that one of KO’s USC teams had the 335th best offense in the nation (87.9 ORtg)? In a word: awful.  On to the Enfield-era where offenses move like grandmas with cheetahs taped to their backs and dunks flow like 405 traffic after a SigAlert clears. You wanna play slow? Go to…

Getting to know Washington State: Brock’s in Italy

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I’ve been struggling to piece this one together. I think from the outset components of Ken Bone’s time at Washington State have been doomed. Tony Bennett is one of the few coaches who can compete with him in the cool name department (see QUOTABLE below) and who also set an unparallel-able bar in Pullman. Now to be clear, I’m not writing a fire and brimstone preview. I’m also not about to say “quite the contrary.” I’m just saying that there isn’t anything particularly interesting about this team. They’ve lost one of my favorite Pac-12 players of All-Time in Brock Motum. The Australian was my two time reigning Australian of the Year (which I’ve already awarded to Angus Brandt for this season) and he was really good at basketball. The saving grace of Cougar hoop. And now he’s gone to Italy and so too is long time assistant, Ben Johnson. They’ve lost him to Australia, too. Something about down undah.

Why I love them: It’s hard to love something you don’t know and there really isn’t a ton to know about this Cougar team. So I went to their Official Roster and that’s when I fell in love. For someone working in UX (user experience) and guiding different design teams to optimize a digital experience, I appreciate things like hover boxes that help with name pronunciation. You would think Apple Cup rivals, the Washington Huskies, would develop a stand alone page to help with the pronunciation of Giles Dierickx. The Cougars may not get a ton of love nationally or coastally, but god dammit you’re going to pronounce their names right. Additionally, I appreciate the back court of DaVonte Lacy and Royce Woolridge. They’re veterans (JR and rJR, respectively) and have shouldered the point guard role in the excuse of Reggie Moore. They were due help in the arrival of Danny Lawhorn – a JuCo standout set to take over at the one – but HEGONE. I have heard good things about red-shirt freshman, [cue] Johnson, and Dexter [KER-nick]-Drew. So there’s that.

Why I hate them: BROCKMOTUM. How can you be a fan of this conference and be glad to see him leave? He was the consummate collegian and I loved his game. How glorious was it to see him go HAM in Vegas – 28 points in a loss to UW – during his final game (a friend of mine saw him going the other time of HAM on the Strip but that’s a different tale and please note that Aussies party harder than anyone else. Anyone.). Alas, their roster comes at us guard heavy and in a league that already touts Jahii Carson, CJ Wilcox, Justin Cobbs, Nick Johnson, Jordan Adams, Damyean Dotson, TJ McConnell, Spencer Dinwiddie, Chasson Randle, Jarbari Bird, Joseph Young, Nigel Williams-Goss, Jermaine Marshall, Aaron Bright, Dominic Artis…do you get my point?

Stat you need to know:

-.134

To be honest, I have no idea what this number means as a number by itself. With context however, this is the 345th worst luck in Division-1 basketball. It basically means that the Cougars were in a lot of ball games (projected to win, arguably) that they wound up losing. There were 10 games last season they lost by 5 or fewer points. Often a poor luck scoring can translate into an improved record the following year. The logic suggests that you lost a bunch of games you were projected to win one year (youth, tough bounces, monitors) and that you’ll get those bounces the following year. Ya know…get better. But I wouldn’t soon hang my hat on luck, Cougar fans, but it is something.

Quotable:

“I’m cheering for Washington State to win the Pac-12 this year only because I don’t want their coach to get fired. There aren’t enough good porn names in sports, so Ken Bone getting axed would be a huge loss.” – Mark Titus

Outlook: Bleak. There’s early hot seat talk and that’s never a good thing. There’s nothing returning in the front court and lots lost. DJ Shelton will man the middle. He did tout a 21.7 DR% which I suppose is encouraging. Addtionally, Ken Bone’s best teams play fast. Or at least swifter than the average bear. His last three seasons, however, Bone’s teams have been playing increasingly slower from his better teams. They’ve also been getting increasingly worse in the ORtg and DRtg department. In analytics we call this a downward trend. But how about that Titus quote, eh?

 

Getting to know Cal: A balancing act

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Cal has made the most buzz in their off-season not necessarily surrounding anything they’ve done. To address what they’ve done is to tell you they’ve compiled a sound team with compelling pieces up and down the roster. They’re maybe not deep but they’re balanced. I like Cal’s roster. But that’s maybe not why you’ve heard about them. No, you might’ve heard that Dough Gottlieb of CBS-lore has picked Cal as his 10th best team in the nation. Rush the Court asked how and I’m curious, too. But ultimately, that’s Doug’s prerogative and I don’t care that much. He’s the paid contrarian and I’m not even about to mention his brother being on Cal’s staff – though I just did. So with that out of the way, we’ll focus on whether these Bears can replace Allen Crabbe, the reigning POY; if balanced is enough; whether Richard Solomon can make the jump.

Why I love them: That balance I’ve been talking about? I’m really high on it and what’s more is they’ve got veterans in the right places and particularly in the two most important. You know about Mike Montgomery so allow me to get to the point: Justin Cobbs (see what I did there?!). He’s hit big shots and played in big games. He’s a senior at the most critical position in college basketball and one cannot begrudge the Bears that. It is their most endearing quality. But one senior does not a team make. No, filling out their back court is the highly touted Jabari Bird for whom Monty has been trying to taper expectations, “I don’t want to put expectations on Jabari.  I want him to develop, I want him to learn as a freshman.  Certainly coming in with the ability he has is going to give him a great opportunity, but the expectations is that he has a great freshman year and he helps us win basketball games.” Sure, Monty’s got a fine freshmen, but one freshman does not a team make (with apologies to ‘Melo). I’m not about to carry on with the different components that alone do not make up a team, but I will tell you that I’m a big Ty Wallace fan. He had a good freshman campaign and – if my calculations from a year ago stand true – he projects to have a much improved sophomore effort. The one additional thing that’s also got me high on this team is who Richard Solomon might become. He’s athletic and lengthy and we find him in his final season at Berkeley. How is he going to handle that urgency? If he manages to channel it into continued rebounding success (high OR and DR rates) and improved offensive output (just 55th in the conference in ORtg) then the Bears would seem to have further filled out an already nice lineup.

Why I hate them: OK so I like Richard Solomon. I want to believe that he’s going to have a big senior year – a fact I plan to expand upon in a later post. But if we’re looking at this team and its front court, we’re indeed left with Solomon and David Kravish. Sound players but with the body of work we’ve previously been presented with, I’m not about to consider this a Pac-12 contending front court. They’ve lost the Thurmanator who gave them big minutes when Solomon was in foul trouble (ranked 3rd to last in fouls committed/40 minutes) and I don’t foresee Kameron Rooks or Roger Moute a Bidias soon jumping into significant roles. Cobbs, Bird, Kreklow, and Wallace are going to win this team plenty of ball games, but it’s Solomon and Kravish who could help differentiate them.

Stat you need to know:

22

Percentage and number of three pointers that Ty Wallace hit last season for the Pac-12’s worst three point shooting team. I love Ty Wallace’s game but he needs to learn that his game isn’t to be firing from deep. In fact, see Exhibit Quotable…

Quotable:


Outlook: Maybe I don’t love this Bears team but there’s plenty here to like. I’ve discussed balance. That can cause problems for people; as does a Mike Montgomery defense. The Bears have had a top 50 defense in each of the last three seasons under Monty and project to have the 29th best this year per KenPom. Speaking of which, it might be worth noting that Ken rates Cal as the fourth best Pac-12 team and 36th in the nation. A season ago they wrapped the year rated 56th OR, twenty spots lower than they currently project. By my amateur math, this would suggest that the Bears are improved despite the loss of Crabbe. But enough quantitative predictions. I think Cobbs is senior enough to Dance with help from Bird and a much improved Ty Wallace (might be my favorite player in the league). And yes, in my final sentences, I’ll acknowledge that Cobbs suffered a foot injury. I don’t think this will prove a major set back. He ain’t missin much. Look at how cool new Haas is:

Haas Floor

 

Getting to know Colorado: Altitude the dog

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Did you know that these Buffs return four starters from an NCAA tournament team? Google translator will tell you that means high expectations. And indeed expectations are high in Boulder as I think they’re now wearing a target. But interestingly, despite this gaudy number of starters heading back to The Keg, Tad Boyle’s opening statements at Pac-12 Media Day were to call these accusations of experience a “misnomer.” Ten of the thirteen players on this team are freshmen or sophomores. It’s a youth movement out there but one of those non-yougins’ is Spencer Dinwiddie. And he has a mustache.

Why I love them: It’d be easy to sit here and tell you how great Spencer Dinwiddie is. That he represented USA basketball at the World University Games and that he gets to the free throw line than faster than a co-ed to The Sink for dollar wells (more later). Spencer Dinwiddie is good and it’s going to get boring how good he is. And so I love the Buffs because of Xavier Johnson. The athletic wing is versatile and the kind of matchup that causes havoc. Remember that Roberson guy? Think of him with a legitimate shot at legitimate outside shot. He shot 44% from distance a year ago and had a 57% eFG. That eFG compares favorably to the following 2012-13 performances: Anthony Bennett, Jeff Withey, and Seth Curry. Maybe you’ve heard of them. And if we’re talking about loving the Buffs, I must mention that an improved Josh Scott makes for a frightening team. There isn’t much depth after him but he’s a game changing kind of player – especially if Askia Booker is shooting well. Much gets made of Booker’s volume shooting. The fact of the Colorado matter is they get things done defensively. They had a top 20 defense last year (90.9 AdjD was 19th in the country). That’s how Tad butters his bread: with your bricks. I also just need to go in on Dinwiddie and the free throw line real fast. 76.7 FTRate from last year and it was the nineteenth best rate in the nation. He was just one of a handful of guards to have such a high rate and with this season’s rules changes and a presumed increase in whistles, expect to see Dinwiddie imposing Hack-a-Mayor on the opposition.

Why I hate them: Well all that inexperience exposes an evaluation of the Buffs to a lot of question marks and last year – even with “seniors coming off the bench” as Boyle reminded us – they played like a youthful group. Remember when they beat Arizona in Boulder? Then they lost to ASU in Boulder. Remember when they beat Oregon in Boulder? Then they lost to Oregon State in Boulder. To the untrained eye, maybe the Buffs just lose to State schools? But you and I understand that these guys play emotionally, they recognize the given “magnitude” of a game and seem to have the gift/curse to play to their opponent. Now to be clear, I’m judging this group off of last season’s performance which may or may not be fair. But if Boyle wants to make it clear that this team is inexperienced, then maybe he has another thing coming. Also, ASKIA BOOKER TOOK 29% OF HIS TEAM’S SHOTS A SEASON AGO WITH THEIR FOURTH WORST ORTG. THIS CAN SERVE AS A RECIPE FOR DISASTER. That is all.

Stat you need to know:

10.5

This is the number of points that home court advantage at altitude is worth. Playing at altitude is a bitch. Seriously. You click that link and you’re getting a face full of data that boils down to that conclusion: 10.5 points. For comparison’s sake, the normal home court advantage is just 3.5 points. Boulder’s Keg is 5,430 feet above sea level where UW, USC, UCLA, Cal, and Stanford play and practice. A group that has combined for just two wins in Colorado. Yeah, it’s a bitch.

In their words: From @CUGoose, an admin at AllBuffs and a damn fine Buffalo, man, and interwebs presence.

Adam has just spent 500 words going over the brilliance that is The Mayor. And he’s not wrong. But while I will be enjoying The Mayor’s last year in Boulder this year, I will also be keeping a close eye on the best big man in the Pac-12 – Josh Scott. While Arizona’s horses up front may be a better unit, there’s not a better talent than the man known as Jelly. He’ll get some help this year from redshirt freshman Wes Gordon (who will do his best to replace Dre’s defense in the post) and a group of four true frosh who all bring different things to the table (keep an eye out for Jaron Hopkins, who could have a Dinwiddie-esque career in Boulder when it’s all said & done). But Jelly will be leading the pack. Expect a breakout year from the sophomore as he and the Mayor lead the Buffs to a top 3 finish in the Pac.

Quotable:

“Spencer has emerged as a valuable point guard for us. He can play three different spots and is able to get his shot. He could be the catalyst for setting the tone for our defense.” – Bob McKillop, Head Coach, USA World University Games

Outlook: I like this year’s Buffs. Spencer is practically that senior guard I love as he’s darned near gone to the League. Josh Scott gives them a legitimate threat on the post and I love Xavier Johnson’s motor. The culture they’re touting heading into the season gets me heated as a Wildcat fan and appreciative as a bystander. Askia Booker has just enough DGAF to be the instant offense this team needs when they’re shooting turns abysmal. I can’t say it enough: playing at altitude is a bitch. And despite this being a roster of newcomers, if they aren’t going to be relied upon for offensive output (I see you Scott, Dinwiddie, and Booker returning your respective 22, 22, and 29 percent of shots) then Tad – with depth for one of the first time’s in his CU tenure – can throw defensive bodies onto the floor for as long as the flat irons are beautiful. Dancing Buffs.

Getting to know UCLA: Who cares if they’re slow

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We’re all getting to know UCLA right now. Will they play fast? Well? With a point guard? Recruit well? Collapse? Thrive? With Steve Alford at the helm, I’m fascinated. And it’s not so much an Alford thing as it is a UCLA thing. Alas, he’s in charge and he’s only going to be successful if he’s allowed to be his own man. He had that at New Mexico whereas at Iowa, it seemed he was still that hot shot Indiana kid, biding his time to take the lead chair in Bloomington. He never quite got it going there. But now he has no other chairs to fill. This is it. Steve Alford has reached the pinnacle of college basketball coaching – by way of job title – and it’s one of the most unique jobs around. The nameplate in his office drips with history and the expectations of a pyramid that he must uphold. A glorious set of standards but not necessarily Steve’s. Step one is surely to respect that history and embrace himself. Prepare yourself for me to opine on this a lot in the coming months.

Why I love them: The mid-range game is a dying art and understandably so. It’s the longest distance from the basket with the lowest reward (2 points). That’s high risk, low reward. There are defenses designed (like the packline at Arizona) to force teams into shooting mostly in this area. Last year, the Wildcats forced 39% of shots from that range. UCLA, meanwhile, took 44% of their shots in that range (compared to 29% at the rim and 24% beyond the arc). Subsequently the Bruins swept the Wildcats in three games. MATH! And the man I want to highlight here is Jordan Adams. He’s a terrific talent that got lost behind Shabazz and his very similar game. Did you know Adams made zero post-season lists? I mean, honorable mention all-freshmen, sure, but damn. Welcome back Pac? He’s one of seven returning Pac players to score 15ppg last year. He’s going to score in bunches and greatly utilize that 2-pt jump shot. Last year he took 40% of his shots from there and made them at a 45% clip – the highest rate of any contributing Bruin (only Josh Smith, yes that guy, and Tony Parker had higher FG% there). Now it’s worth noting here that there was a regime change in Westwood – I’m not sure if you noticed – and so one might wonder if that will have an effect on the Bruins’ style of play. The short answer is: duh. However, with regards to what we’ve been discussing here, we can peak at New Mexico’s shot distribution. In 2012-13 the Lobos took about 36% of their shots from 2pt jumper-town. Alford offenses are generally deliberate and predicated on set plays, getting a shooter – say, Jordan Adams? – an open jump shot. Conclusive? Hardly, but if you’re touting a team who’s primary ball handler is likely to be a 6’9″ bad three point shooter and that has the Wear family, I imagine there will continue to be jumpers abound in Westwood.

Why I hate them: Kyle Anderson is a very talented basketball player. That’s not why I hate the Bruins, mind you. Kyle’s so talented that this is his final season at UCLA. It’s yet to be determined if he can be the primary ball handler – as I think he’ll need to be – for a highly competitive basketball team but that doesn’t really concern me. Kyle Anderson at the 1 is a defensive liability and defense is the cornerstone of Steve Alford teams. He’s never coached a team who’s AdjD didn’t rank in the top-100. He’s also never coached a team without a direction in its name to the sweet sixteen (Southwest Missouri State, 1999 S16). No one is soon to call Jordan Adams a stopper. Same with the Wear family (who by the way are remarkably solid basketball players with roles escalated beyond what they’re equipped to produce). Norman Powell is a great athlete and might be their best defensive player but ultimately, I’m not certain this group of Bruins can play the excellent defense that’s going to be asked of them.

Stat you need to know:

1.3

Percent increase in AdjT between Steve Alford’s last 11 seasons (67.11) as compared to Ben Howland’s last 11 seasons (66.22). Personally, I think style of play is overrated. One of my favorite hoops fans has little to no problem annually cheering his Badgers to 24 wins on about 60 possessions/game. Winning is all that matters. I’ll judge Steve’s left column.

In their words: Making his PacHoops debut here, Luc Bergevin brings some fresh UCLA perspective as all things become new again in Westwood. Read more of his good word at The Stoop Kids

And so year one of the Alford experiment gets underway. Coach Alford was not the guy many of us wanted, (that would be Stevens, Donovan, Pitino, Shaka, etc.) but he’s the coach we’ve got, and so we support him. I especially like his hiring of assistant coach Ed Schilling, who previously ran Adidas Nations and has great credibility as a clinician. I could also see Alford being a guy the players get up for, which is something we sorely lacked in the last few years of the Howland regime.

We’ve got solid depth on the wings, but the questions this season hinge on who will be running the point and who will separate themselves down low. For my money, I hope we see Kyle Anderson as the primary ball handler, with Wanaah Bail and Tony Parker getting meaningful minutes over the same old Wears. Be ready for quick and loud cries of nepotism should the young Bryce Alford get too many minutes at the point without stunning success.

I think the overall athleticism of this team is improved from last year, especially if my hopes for the post come to fruition. Alford is not the stubborn gruff Howland was, so I expect to see more zone on the defensive side of the ball. I love the athletic upside of freshman combo guard Zach Lavine, and I think this could be the year things finally click for Norman Powell. I don’t know exactly where to set my expectations for this year, and that may set up for a pleasant surprise as the season unfolds.

Quotable:

“Steve Alford fails in an epic fashion in the recruiting trail in his first year by striking out with all key point guard recruits in his first year at UCLA, possibly making him a damaged good for rest of his time in Westwood.” – Bruins Nation

Outlook: By no stretch do I dislike this team. I’m not sold on their top asset, defense, but I love Jordan Adams and while Kyle Anderson may be porous on the defensive end, he’s a matchup nightmare offensively and has no bones exploiting that: “Some games I’m going to be asked to score the ball more or go inside and rebound more. And I’m willing to.” As I’ve stated ad nauseum, I love seniors, and David and Travis will be hometown seniors. Their long and unique collegiate journey is coming to an end. How will they be remembered? They won’t soon be remembered as Bruin legends but they’re damn fine ball players. I imagine the Bruins to be one of six Pac-12 teams dancing in March.

Getting to know Washington: Name game

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For whatever reason I’m compelled to open by citing that the Abdul Gaddy era in Washington has officially come to a close with…the emergence of a promising local, five-star point guard expected to be a game changer. Anyhow, the parallels are always funny but that’s the beautiful promise of change. And change the Huskies have, going all high-post offense and sh** while missing on Mike Moser and Aaron Gordon. But that’s neither here nor there. It’s Nigel-time.

Why I love them: I can’t figure out whether or not I love that there are Huskies named Nigel, Giles, and Perris. Those are some James Bond villains right there and have you seen Giles Dierickx’s bio pic? Allow me:

GilesDierickx

C K X

The guy’s name ends with three consonants. Three consecutive consonants is a sound. If a seven footer with an onomatopoetic closing to his last name doesn’t dispel some of the Huskies’ post issues, then I don’t know what will. If you listen to Romar, however, he feels it’s going to be Perris Blackwell – a USF transfer weighing in at 275lbs – who’s going to give the Dawgs a post presence they haven’t “had in years.” Romar told us he could threaten for leading scorer which is saying something considering the reason I really do love the Huskies is their guard play. CJ Wilcox can flat stroke it and carried this team for much of last season. He lead the team in both percentage of shots taken AND ORtg. Gotta like that combination. If nothing else, the thick bodies of Perris and Shawn Kemp Jr can set monster screens for that guy to get open. Additionally, his running mate doesn’t just have two first names, but rather TWO OF THE SAME NAMES! Andrew Andrews, folks.

Why I hate them: They’ve lost Aziz and really don’t have anything proven in the post besides a guy better recognized for his name than his game: Shawn Kemp, Jr. They run a high post offense which is to ask a lot of their bigs to be decision makers. Good decisions – like wisdom – generally come with age and familiarity and unfortunately the Husky frontcourt returns players who posted the following in % of minutes: 59.3% (Desmond Simmons), 37% (Kemp), 28.7% (Jernard Jarreau). Now, inexperience is not the kiss of death, but it sure ain’t helping me love the Huskies any more. Blackwell helps, though.

In their words: More coming here but the guest post was so damn well done it’s going to get it’s own posting.

Stat you need to know:

183

That is the KenPom AdjT ranking of the 12-13 Huskies – their first in the high post offense. That  pace was the lowest a LoRo offense has ever ranked by 146 spots. That’s right, the previous LoRo slow was ranked 57th in the nation at 70. Last year they paced out at 65.7 – nearly the only ever Romar team in the 60s. Alas, after finishing 18-16, Romar has vowed to pick things up again.

Quotable:

“The heat will get hotter unless there’s a noticeable shift upward either this season or next. The good news for Washington is that freshman point guard Nigel Williams-Goss is the type of prospect who could spark a turnaround.” – CBS Sports’ UW preview

Outlook: These Dawgs are increasingly interesting as I absolutely love senior guards and the Huskies have CJ Wilcox. Their frontcourt pieces are intriguing but not necessarily promising like their backcourt. Nigel Williams-Goss is a pleasant addition and I always love a Lorenzo Romar offense. A season ago he was missing the depth to really get things going. It seems the Dawgs have the opportunity to regain some of that high octaine swagger we all know and love from Seattle. I don’t think Washington fights for a Pac-12 championship or really even much of an NCAA birth. They’re going to spend the season causing problems for people and then giving us a few head scratchers. They’ll pose a threat inside HecEd but I can’t see this group getting mentioned on a Sunday afternoon CBS show.

Getting to know Oregon: Not calling them TransferU

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This team is completely different looking from last year’s sweet sixteen team. Which was completely different looking than the previous year’s NIT team. Which was completely different looking from the previous year’s CBI team. Dana Altman must have an advanced degree in change management because that’s all he’s done at Oregon. Most importantly, have you been noticing the Altman-era win column? Allow me: 21, 24, 28. The Altman-era conference finishes? Again, my pleasure: 7, 2, 2. On to 2013-14…

Why I love them: The guards. Artis quickly became a favorite of mine and clearly an integral piece to what the Ducks were trying to accomplish (5-4 without, 24-4 with). I also liked the guy – now a senior – that filled in during Artis’ absence, Johnathan Loyd. And I’m also very much loving this backcourt with Friday’s definitive addition of Houston transfer, Joseph Young. The team swapping junior brings his 124.1/22.7 (ORtg/%poss)…hold up, did I just tell you that Oregon adds the nation’s 26th highest ORtg to their roster? If that doesn’t meant anything to you I’ll synopsize: he’s good at scoring. And I’ll drop some similar ORtgs from last year: Kelly Olynyk, (123.3), Nate Wolters (123.5 – he’s the guy who dropped 53 in a game last year), and Victor Oladipo (122.8). His ORtg would’ve ranked second in the Pac only to Arizona’s Kevin Parrom who dialed in at a far lesser 17% usage rate. You loving this Oregon backcourt yet? I bet, AND I HAVEN’T EVEN MENTIONED DAMYEAN DOTSON. This guy might be my favorite back there. He arrived in Eugene, a late signee to an underwhelming 2012 class beyond the heralded Artis. Dotson swiftly dropped double figures in his first three collegiate games and never quite looked back. It was his efforts on the perimeter – hitting the three ball which Oregon struggled to do – that was integral in guiding Dana’s Ducks to a Pac-12 tournament championship and the sweet sixteen. Dotson hit 17 of his 47 total three pointers during the season’s final six games (P12 and NCAA tourneys). He showed up in the season’s biggest games and I LOVE THAT. Oh, and if it’s 2011-12 Mike Moser taking graduate coursework in Eugene…look out.

Why I hate them: I don’t know them and we tend to fear what we don’t know. Granted, I know my ex-girlfriend and I kind of hate her but I don’t really know anything about these Ducks. Their front court is completely rebuilt, do you know who Ben Carter is? Google his name and you get the website of a potter. As for the hoopster, I’ve been hearing buzz around his name but I’ll wait to see the honey. One Duck confidant called him “Arsalan Junior” which would suggest big things for the kid (see the QUOTABLE for more Carter love). There’s  Moser, he’s fantastic, but the same can’t necessarily be said about Waverly Austin. On the transfers-not-named-Moser front, Richard Amardi would seem to bring some heat. Again, unproven so we’ll see. As mentioned and highlighted, this is an overhauled front court missing Arsalan Kazemi, Tony Woods, and EJ Singler. I might even toss Carlos Emery onto that list. Point is: this team isn’t taking a whole new identity, they’re taking a whole new style. I think they’re talented enough to do it but it may take some growing pains.

Stat you need to know:

42

Three point shooting percentage of Joseph Young who is joining a team that shot just 33% from distance (202nd best in the country) last year. With open arms they welcome a shooter.

In their words: Matt writes for Addicted to Quack and he’s addicted to quack. He co-hosts the ATQ podcast and his favorite bird is a Duck. Has to be.

Coming off a Sweet Sixteen run, Dana Altman did this off season what Dana Altman does.  He reloaded with transfer players, 5th-year seniors and a couple of highly regarded prospects.  In the age of one-and-done players in college basketball, Altman isn’t afraid to utilize the same strategy, he just tends to make the 1 year the player’s 5th year in college basketball.  Add Mike Moser to the list of Arsalan Kazemi, Olu Ashaolu, Devoe Joseph, and Jay-R Strowbridge.  Moser is a huge addition to the front court for a unit that, while talented, is pretty young.

The strength of this team however is going to come in the back court.  Oregon is going to field one of the best back courts in the Pac 12, if not the country.  Dominic Artis, Damyean Dotson, and Pac 12 Tourney MVP Johnathan Loyd return for the Ducks.  Add to that 5th-year senior Jason Calliste (from Detroit 11.1 pts/gm) and transfer Joseph Young (from Houston 14.8 pts/gm) and Oregon has 5 sharp shooting scoring threats to throw at teams on a nightly basis.
All in all, don’t expect much different from the Ducks strategically.  With their talented back court and versatile front court, Oregon will continue to use the high post offense that keeps guys moving and gets guys open for shots.  On defense expect more pressure though.  With so much depth on the Ducks, Altman may be able to finally implement the full court pressure defense for 40 minutes that he’s always wanted to do.
Fans should be pretty excited coming off their first NCAA Tourney run in 5 years as the Ducks looked positioned for another chance to take the Pac 12 crown and make it back to March Madness.

Quotable:

“The frosh got some major burn early, then fell out of favor as the older Ducks took over during their Sweet 16 run. Carter is a former teammate of Shabazz Muhammad at Bishop Gorman in Las Vegas and was very well coached in high school. With Mike Moser as a 4/3 hybrid in the “pinwheel” offense, Carter can play both 5 and 4.” – Doug Gottlieb on Ben Carter’s potential to breakout

Outlook:  It’s nice, real nice with the addition of Young. I’m fully sold on what Dana Altman is doing up there that I’m considering wearing pleats, a white button down with green tie, and impeccable hair for Halloween. Sure there’s some concern about the sustainability of this transfer model but let’s ignore that until we see something that doesn’t resemble year over year improvement, deal? Now I’m not about to tout them as a top-10 team a la Gottlieb, but I clearly like this team’s back court and I want to go to South Korea with them (11/8 vs. Georgetown).

Getting to know Arizona State: Riquickulous

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I’m a big proponent of keeping local talent local around and so when Herb Sendek secured a commitment from Jahii Carson – and then much later received his NCAA clearance – it was a big. Huge for a program that went 12-19 the year before Carson enrolled and 10-21 the year he rode the pine. Once he saw the court, the Sun Devils were a bubble team right up until Vegas and finished 22-13. Need further proof that the kid’s a program changer? Carrick Felix’s ORtg without Jahii: 95.1. With Jahii? 110.4 and Felix was drafted by an National Basketball Association team. Maybe you’ve heard of that league. Jahii Carson changes lives.

Why I love them: Carson is the obvious reason to think highly of the Devils. He’s fully deserving of any print or voice he’s getting as an All-American. And have you been following any of these NCAA rules changes? Of course not. I did for whatever reason, however, and now allow me to synopsize with a quote from Bobby D (Pac-12 Coordinator of Officials):

“We are probably going to see more whistles than we have in the past.”

Well shit. And he quoted this in regards to hand checking rules and do you know who often draws the most hand checks? Riquickulous water bugs who blow by their defenders and already get to the line at a 42.4% clip. Expect the fastest guard in the conference, if not nation, to benefit from these rules changes. Of course Jahii is only 5’10” so he’s not always going to get a shot off. He’s gotta find someone to dish to, right? Enter Penn State graduate transfer, Jermaine Marshall. The numbers suggest that Marshall is a jump shooter – he took just 15% of his shots last year at the rim. Then, on all those shots he’s taking of the jumping variety, a high percentage of those are being assisted. Translation: Jermaine moves off the ball, gets open, hits shot. The off ball focus (also addressed by Bobby D) should behoove such a player as he runs around screens unimpeded by superfluous bumps and grabs. Between Jordan Bachynski on the block and Carson, Marshall should see plenty of open looks from the perimeter; a shot he’s proven he can make.

Why I hate them: HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAH
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
Ok, now that we’ve gotten that out of the way, I’m really not certain these Sun Devils are going to be able to defend at the level they need to. Carrick Felix was a huge defensive asset, capable of guarding up and down a lineup. In his stead, Jonathan Giling’s role grows and so too will his defensive assignments. Last year was Herb Sendek’s 4th worst defense – 97.4 AdjD – in his coaching career; Herb’s only real comments about defense – the cornerstone of his coaching resume – is that the new rule changes “could really have almost a revolutionary effect on the game.” Now I pulled that quote out of media day when Hyperbole Herb saw everything on the most macro level imaginable. But when I hear a man vaunted for his man-to-man defensive genius call certain rule changes “revolutionary,” I hear a man about to focus on speeding up his offense.

Stat you should know:

97

That’s the number of shots that Jordan Bachynski needs to block this season to become the Pac-12’s all-time leading shot blocker. He’s blocked 181 to this point – good for 11th in conference history. Last season the big Canadian dismissed 120 would be buckets. A repeat performance and he stands alone as the Prime Minister of Prevention.

Quotable:

“But we went through a period of time when we had more NBA draft picks than any conference in the country.  We were spitting out lottery picks like nickels … our talent level is as good as it has been in a long time.” – Hyperbole Herb on the health of Pac-12 hoops

Outlook: I think the Devils have some really nice pieces and a relatively balanced roster. They’ll introduce to us a pretty good fill-in for Carrick Felix when MSU transfer Brandan Kearney becomes available during the second semester. And with one of the nation’s best players, you really can’t count the Devils too far out of things. Hell, Matt Norlander picked them to finish third. I’m not that high on them but Herb has pieced together a pretty decent little ball club. This year it’s been noted that he’s sitting on a pretty warm seat for past performances (see: 2010-12) and we haven’t seen the Devil dance since James Harden donned the maroon and piss gold. Are they going to be good enough to dance? JAHII WILL DANCE IN HIS FINAL COLLEGE SEASON (I’m going to regret that later). For the first time in a long time, the Sun Devils are playing a non-conference slate that’s a touch better than cupcake (@UNLV, Marquette, Creighton) and, because, Jahii.

Riquickulous:

Getting to know Stanford: Same but different?

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Obviously in the words below I’ll dive into these Cardinal but I’d like to begin with Maples Pavilion. I grew up watching the backboards sway and the floors bounce. We’d turn down the TV volume as Arthur Lee’s Cardinal became Jason Terry’s daddy. We’ve seen Tiger act-a-fan court side (hated it but appreciated it). It’s an intimate venue and an easy place to catch a game. It should be every bit of the 3.5 point home court advantage and then some. Currently, however, it is not. The team hasn’t won at Monty levels in awhile and hasn’t been subsequently supported. It’s a shame because – living in the Bay Area – I want to see some rowdy. Do I really have to head to USF for Gonzaga’s visit?

Why I love them: Dwight Powell, Josh Huestis, Anthony Brown, Stefan Nastic, John Gage, and Aaron Bright. That was Johnny Dawkins’ 2010 recruiting class and every single one of them is on this team. “There’s unfinished business,” Dwight Powell says. You’re darn right there is and that’s coming out of a senior who just may be feeling the urgency of his imminent graduation. But boy do I love seniors and boy do I love seniors that are supported by a junior, Chasson Randle. This team has talent at every position and has the quintessential PG to run a Stanford basketball team. Then there’s the whole do-it-for-Andy storyline where these guys have a teammate, Andy Brown, who will be sorely missed from this team. This off-season he suffered his fourth ACL tear, ending his Cardinal career. He’s no longer on the team but promises to be he’ll continue to be a part of the team. Powerful stuff.

Why I hate them: They ain’t done shit! As stated, this is one helluva crew and I love their makeup and the things they appear to be capable of. But that aforementioned senior class is just 26-28 in Pac-12 play with two NIT appearances (I will begrudge them a 2012 NIT championship  but will also note they closed their season 5-8 to “earn” that un-invitational). College basketball is a dance recital and the Cards haven’t been dancing. Not since 2008 when there were two guys who looked alike who you might’ve heard of (Hi, Brook! Hi, Robin!). Maybe that’s why they signed Marcus and Malcolm Allen? No, shared DNA ain’t fixing this. And I’m not entirely sure I’m buying what Johnny Dawkins and Powell were telling us about what’s different for this team, “We’re thinking differently.” What does that even mean? The team did go through NAVY Seal training (see below) and have tested and pushed themselves in ways they supposedly have not before. I applaud that. I understand and appreciate culture shifts. I actually talked to a close friend who is a Red Sox fan about John Farrell’s work in Boston. He’s taken a dumpster fire and last place team with seven free agents to the World Series and baseball’s best record. Shifts are possible. But that also included a leadership change and that’s a path I never like to head down. I’m selling the “change of thinking” thing and buying – speculatively – the urgency of seniority.

Stat you need to know:

88%

That is the usage percentage returning to Maples this season. Compare that to the next most in Pac-12: Colorado’s 69%. Frankly, I’ve already gone in on this whole what-will-they-do-with-all-that-returning-skill thing so I’ll just say remind you they’re returning a 9-9 team.

In their words: My man, @kevo408, calls D-League hoops for the Santa Cruz Warriors, is all over the Pac-12 Post, and attended this here Stanford spot. Thanks, Danna Man.

Marcus is the scorer and Malcolm the passer from what I recall. Marcus is certainly more highly touted but I’m not sure they’ll be the major factors. It’s really a do-or-die year for the Card. They’re going to be tested early with Bucknell, BYU, Northwestern, a trip to Denver and UCONN. They’ll take on Beilein’s Wolverines in Brooklyn and could draw Pitt there as well in the Legends Classic. They haven’t proven yet they can close a team out. I can’t count the number of ways these guys lost games last year: Powell missing a DUNK down two at USC; Powell not knowing the clock and making the game tying layup after the buzzer; Randle fouling beyond mid-court with less than a second left in a tie ball game. Do they haveit? I don’t know. But I want to see them in the Dance.

Quotable:

“”I just want to thank all of my teammates.”
– Andy Brown

Outlook: I want desperately to say I like this team’s prospects but they return that 9-9 team that underwhelmed me season long (except when I saw them demolish Oregon). Have I mentioned that? Everyone else across the conference is rolling out rosters that  make the Cardinal an afterthought. I keep thinking about them and I can’t imagine three guys named Allen (Marcus, Malcolm, and Rosco) making a tournament changing impact. Which means that if we’re going to believe in these Cardinal, well we have to believe something different; the same approach Dawkins and team are taking. I’m all for mental fortitude I just don’t know if you can force it. I’ve seen my fair share of players asked to be leaders and get handed the How to Lead for Dummies book. That usually turns into a disingenuous, untrusted teammate. These aren’t bad guys. Just guys who are asked to be something they’re not (perhaps reference: Lyons, Mark). But I’ll tell you what, if any school was going to be clever enough to figure this stuff out…

A video: