Monthly Archives: January 2014

A Friday Runaround the Pac: Adam Edition

Pac-12

This weekend will provide me a second opportunity to watch Arizona with my own face and my own friends. This time it will be inside Cal’s Haas Pavilion which should make for a rowdy Saturday night. Subsequently, my recommendation is twofold: 1) Go to your favorite team’s away game. This weekend. 2) Read the following items I created for other internet sites. The former is a strong suggestion. The latter is neurotic.

Enjoy your weekend and don’t fault me for some overlap in Pac-12 thought:

  • The times they are a’changin – Inside The Keg, things don’t seem too hoppy and it’s my impression that something needs to change. The something, in my estimation, is a slower pace and a dedicated effort to getting the rock into the hands of half-court-effective, Josh Scott. Tad Boyle, however, says he’s “sticking to the script.”
  • Marching to Vegas: On Utah, Colorado and a Forced Rivalry – So I went further into Saturday’s Utah-Colorado game because it’s a really interesting one. CU needs it. Utah needs it.
  • More and everything about Arizona on the Zach E. Clark Show – I dropped a line to Tucson so ZC and I could pick through Arizona’s win at Stanford, talk about Aaron Gordon’s ability to be effective in the face of 5-22 shooting, and preview the Cats’ trip to Tucson. Also, I make a Superbowl pick.

#1 Arizona Wins at Maples: How and Why

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Dwight Powell’s six-foot-ten-inch frame had just taken the ball baseline for a reverse layup in a fashion few other six-foot-ten-inch men can do. The score was tied with less than one minute remaining. Crunch time, as it were, and Maples Pavilion had the acoustics of Y2K. Tiger Woods wasn’t there but Andre Iguodala was. Johnny Dawkins was more this, than this.

And if you haven’t been paying attention, here’s a quick breakdown of what Arizona does really well, their brand:

  • Defensive eFG% – #1 in the nation
  • Defensive efficiency – #2 in the nation
  • Offensive rebound % – #11 in the nation
  • Nick Johnson

These are the things that Arizona does so well and what they’ve ridden to an unblemished mark. Knock them off of these pillars and you have a good chance to win. Here is what Stanford did up until the game’s 9:58 point (more on that later, or rather, everything on that later):

  • 46% shooting – would’ve been third highest against AZ this season – to the 9:58 mark
  • 38% free throw rate and more stats that suggest Arizona’s defensive efficiency was threatened but it’s a wildly complex stat so I can’t really provide you context. Know that no other team has out-rebounded Arizona this season and Stanford did.
  • 2 offensive boards. That’s how many Stanford allowed Arizona to get up until the 9:58 mark. Arizona averages 13/game. The Cardinal’s work was roughly the equivalent of just one Belieber passing out at a Bieber show.
  • 9 points for Nick Johnson. He averages 17.

As I’ve often said before, Arizona does a phenomenal job of disregarding an opponent and playing their own brand of basketball. A brand defined by the former set of bullet points and a brand not being upheld as evidence of the latter set. Kudos Stanford on their first 30 minutes and 2 seconds of work.

So with Stanford’s effort as our backdrop, let’s look at that final 9:58, the final minutes, and how Arizona played Arizona basketball.

Powell’s bucket was Stanford’s first FG since the 9:58 mark. They were 1-9 during that 8:37 dry spell. They closed the game 1-10. We could include Powell’s two missed free throws in that window, too; but I learned in second grade that if the numerator is zero the answer is zero no matter the denominator. It’s not worth our while to include Powell’s free throws. They made just the herculean, NBA-esque Powell layup and two free throws Arizona intentionally made Chasson Randle shoot.

Defensive eFG%? Check.

Across roughly fifteen possessions, the Cardinal managed just the Powell layup on their sixteenth. Arizona forced two turnovers and had two blocks. They committed just the one foul and allowed just one offensive rebound.

Defensive efficiency? Check.

The play initially wound up in the hands of Brandon Ashley who had previously broke the back of the Wolverines. But he missed; and for all the aforementioned defensive success of the Wildcats, they were not matching it on offense. They were 3-13 in the same 8:37 window of Cardinal ineptitude plus one turnover. From 9:58 to end, Arizona grabbed four offensive boards. And so up went Ashley’s shot with seemingly a 77% chance of missing. It did and the live ball was grabbed by Kaleb Tarczewski.

Offensive rebounding? Check.

Yup, tied and ear splitting, we had a ball game. The giant, Polish, New Hampshite (?) had procured an offensive rebound which Arizona does at an elite level because they miss shots pretty regularly. Darwinism. Out the ball went and Nick Johnson squared up to his fourth three-point shot of the night – a fresh :35 be damned. This shot, like two of the three prior, went in. 58-55, Arizona. Johnson would grab the ensuing rebound on Chasson Randle’s eleventh miss of the night (Johnson, while we’re on it, guarded Randle the whole game and forced him into 3-15 shooting, 20%. Randle’s average game is 6.0-12.5, 48%). He’d sink two more free throws (we’re ignoring the one-and-one front he missed because I have a narrative to fill), head to the lockers with 16 points (game high), 5 boards, 4 assists (game high), zero turnovers, Arizona’s final 7 points, and get love from gold medalist, Iguodala. Arizona wins.

Nick Johnson? Check.

WANE: Our First Expert!

Podcast of Champions: PacHoops Podcast, , , ,

From the get-go we’ve asked for patience as we work through not only a rough patch in Pac-12 hoops, but our lack of tech savvy. In this week’s WANE the ineptitude on the production side isn’t all that apparent but if you were a part of the mess, you’d understand. Listen for yourselves, however, because we did have our first guest – ever – on, and most certainly is an expert.

Ryan Gorcey – the editor of BearTerritory.net – joined Spencer and I to talk about the Cal Bears; a balanced team that’s endured a few different injury bouts and who jumped to a 5-0 conference record. They toe-stubbed in LA (which Ryan tells us about) and will host the desert duo this weekend in Berkeley.

 

We greatly appreciate Ryan joining us and are bummed we won’t be taking in Saturday’s Cal-Arizona game in his company (the people demand recruiting!).

The Table:

1:23 – Adam interupts to admit he can’t say “technologically”

1:40 – THE BIG REVEAL! Who WANE’s first guest is

2:22 – Spencer uses the term “beneath dead”, and then pics out his favorite “beneath dead” google image result to illustrate his words.

3:01 – ATTACKED BY SOMETHING!

4:18 – A discussion of the Sun Devils? A discussion of the Sun Devils.

5:30 – “Terror Alert Cardinal and Navy” means drop everything, evacuate your current whereabouts and head towards the closest cats team.

5:50 – Zack Clark show referenced…!

6:35 – BearTerritory.net referenced

7:00 – Spencer says, “damn it’s tasty!” with regards to the UCLA @ Oregon game. And then we talk about it for awhile. GotW and Something to Prove.

9:45 –  Adam starts a transition into Utah @ Colorado but we get disrupted by narcism and talk about ourselves and how WANE is more important than Gameday in Boulder. We eventually get to discussing the Utah and Colorado basketball game by 10:46.

11:00 – Spencer’s argument indicates he thinks Utah is squarely on the bubble. We are not experts.
12:10 – Here is visual proof that you can scheduling cupcake time without necessarily eating them.

13:49 – Adam drops off and screws up BEARTERRITORY.NET. For shame.

14:41 – RYAN! RYAN! RYAN! RYAN! RYAN! RYAN! RYAN! RYAN! RYAN! RYAN! Twitter follow: @RGBearTerritory

14:47 – Ryan on what happened to Cal in getting swept out of Los Angeles. And how it’s all a big wear-and-tear on Justin Cobbs. Also how Richard Solomon never really got things going against the Wears. Yes, those guys.

17:16 – A Monty team not playing defense? Ryan agrees with Spencer’s observations that hard defense didn’t travel to LA. Also that Jabari Bird is getting his legs back, the Bears are a little thin and that takes a toll on tough D. And rolling pups out there to guard isn’t the most reliable.

19:53 – If you haven’t heard of Jahii Carson, you should. Cobbs will guard that shifty scorer.

21:55 – Spencer asks about Corey Matthews’ (doh, Jordan Matthews) rise, which Gorcey quickly points out is silly as Boy Meets World stopped airing in 2000, further asserting Gorcey as an expert. In everything.

24:32 – Cats talk ensues!

26:28 – Local boy, Spencer, pumps his original court, Haas. Ryan kind of poopoos it. But Haas will be loud Saturday.

28:04 – The on-going prospects of Cal’s season and some end-o-year thoughts from Ryan.

29:20 – Touché, Mike Montgomery
31:20 – What does Cal need to do down the stretch to fell comfortable on Selection Sunday?
Thanks, Ryan!

 

 

 

BB: #NoTreeDunk

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On Monday, Stanford Athletics published the following video in anticipation of #1 Arizona’s visit to Maples.

It has been viewed more than 4,800 times and includes 15 dunks on the lonely Wildcat and one milk-carton smash. The title includes #TreeDunk and that is what most caught my eye. Because there really isn’t much to suggest Johnny D’s team is dunking. I mean, they have to go to school for it. There’s more.

The Cardinal get the third lowest percentage of shots at the rim (32.9%) in the Pac-12 which is good for 285th in the country. That’s very little time around the tin despite being the ninth tallest team in the country! That’s right, the average height of a 2013-14 Stanford Cardinal is 78.4 inches and they never dunk.

#NoTreeDunk

But maybe the Cardinal, despite taking so few shots in the success zone (should we call it that moving forward?), make a ton of ’em? Nope. They’re just very un-Stanford which is to say: average (whomp, whomp). The D-1 average FG% at the rim is 60.9%. The Card sink 60.6% of ’em – fourth lowest percentage in the Pac-12.

#NoTreeDunk

Furthermore the Wildcats are the stingiest rim defense in all of America. Just 17.8% of shots against the Sean Miller Monsters come in the ‘success zone.’ It’s near impossible to put your hands on whichever basket Arizona is defending. Ugh, sure they yield an insanely high FG% up there (69.1% the 10th highest FG% at the rim nationally). But getting to the rim against the Wildcats is so difficult it’s like winning the Hunger Games: you’re gonna get rewarded. In NCAA-terms it’s an easy basket. In Peeta Mellark-terms it’s at least a few make outs with Katniss. Winning.

#NoTreeDunk

#NoTreeDunk

But maybe Stanford already knew all of the above. The video calls for #TheyWontKnowWhatHitThem which would be about right if dunks ensue. They could abandon their affinity for the 2pt jumper (38.8% of total shots at a 43.2% FG% ranking 25th and 6th, respectively) as Arizona’s defense is built to force this shot (54.3% at a 30.7% clip, 1st and 45th). We dissecting similar prior to the UCLA-Arizona game, and how’d that work out? Defense prevailed. So yes, should Maples Dunk City arrive, #TheyWontKnowWhatHitThem and I imagine no one else would either.

I don’t see a floppy tree throwing many basketballs down on Wildcats any time soon.

Week 5 Pac-12 Hoops Preview

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Had the President addressed the State of the Pac-12 (SOTP) I think he would have had a difficult time explaining it. Particularly to a democratic nation. After all, the Pac-12 right now resembles an oligarchy. Anyhow, that’ll do for the politics speak unless you want to watch COTUS react to FOTUS and LeBron. Anyhow, this is the last weekend of the first half and we’ll finish it in February which is four weeks away from March and :). Yeah, an emoji. Gameday is following me to Boulder and, to my Colorado readers and my Washington readers, good luck.

GotW: There are some good ones on the slate. I think Arizona has one of its toughest tests at Cal on Saturday (#ImGoing) and I think the Rocky Mountain Riot – or the Snow Fight, or the Ski Skirmish, or the Mountain Melee, or the Rocky Rumble – is huge (Saturday 11am PST)! Utah hasn’t won on the road and really needs to pick one up because the “awww! they played really tough” dialogue is fulfilling for only so long. At a certain point they’re going to have to fill the win column before they’re forced to think they suck (they don’t). Meanwhile, the Buffs need a win to convince themselves they’re capable of doing such without Spencer Dinwiddie. But that’s not even the GotW! I’m picking UCLA @ Oregon (Thursday 6pm PST) as the GotW because UCLA is the real deal and Oregon used to be. This is a great opportunity for the Ducks to get their mojo back – I mean their real mojo – because Illinois is now just slightly worse than Georgetown who’s just slightly worse than Mississippi. Let’s call it “How Dana got his grove back?”

Game to Avoid: I understand the expansion of the schedule to Wednesday-Sunday; but maybe, just maybe, we avoid Superbowl Sunday? This year, tipping off pre-noon and right about the time we’re exploring prop bets about seeing Bruno Mars’ exposed-yet-not nipple, UCLA will be tipping off against Oregon State. The interesting thing, however, is this is probably a very watchable game. UCLA on the road is anything but a sure thing and Oregon State is enigmatic and a possible Sunday spoiler. Furthermore, I know you’re going to be in front of a TV. Therefore, this game very well may be un-avoidable. Instead I’m going to say that you should avoid USC at Oregon State because it’s at the same time on Thursday (6pm PST) as UCLA at Oregon and that’s some must watch right thurrrrr (aforementioned GotW).

Something to Prove: Last week the Oregon Ducks had something to prove and split their trip to Washington. I don’t entirely know if that’s necessarily proving anything but it did end the losing streak. They remain in the conversation of dancing teams with a top-50 KenPom and RPI. But now’s their chance to actually prove something. The UCLA Bruins – in the aforementioned PacHoops GotW – will pay a visit to The Matt as the highest rated team (21st in KP) the Ducks will have played since last March. Whoa! Things aren’t dead for the Ducks – not by any means – but at 2-5 with no wins at home Dana’s boys are going to have start taking care of business at some point. How Dana got his grove back!

Something to Lose: I’m split here. On the one hand we have the Arizona State Sun Devils. This is a team that dropped their first conference game to UW at home then seemed to fall off the radar. Since then they’ve dropped games – on the road! – to Arizona and UCLA, aka the conference elite. In some regard, that’s excusable. But the Herbivores are in the Bay Area this weekend and that can be one of the toughest road trips going. They get swept and we’re looking at a sub-.500 conference team. It might be split-or-go-home time. Then there’s my other team with something to lose. The Arizona schools are tough and pose a great threat to most any squad. Thus, the California Golden Bears are faced with tough home task. The expectation is obviously to win – or at least a split since they’re playing #1 – but the formula that USC used to whoop Cal is a familiar one to ASU. Pe’Shon Howard (12/6/10) at the point and Nikola Jovanovic (23/2) as a scoring big could resemble something of a Carson/Bachynski combo. Precedent set.

The YouTuber: I hope this is happening right now as you read this:

Week 4 Pac-12 Hoops Review

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There’s a phenomenon known as the Sunday Blues in which life hits you like a Sean Miller Pac-12 tournament tirade and you just get sad. It sucks. But when it was settling in for me this weekend, I remembered I still had three Sunday evening games to absorb. So we got a giant pasta bake going, watched sports, and picked up a couple of bottles of red and boom! blues-be-gone. I’m not sure the same holds for Colorado (0-2 at -32), Washington State (0-2 at -38), Cal (0-2 at -20), or Utah (0-2 at -15). I just feel really strongly that I won Sunday.

Leader in the Clubhouse: We could very easily award this to the undefeated and top-ranked-for-eight-weeks Arizona Wildcats. The team allowing Pac-12 opponents to score 10 fewer points per 100 possessions than any other team. I’d rather cite our clubhouse leader as someone else in the midst of some odd Pac times. Hello, UCLA Bruins! They impressively and resoundingly held serve in Pauley this weekend. The Bruins are a road hiccup at Utah (what’s proving to be a pretty damn tough team) away from being a top-15 team. This weekend, however, the Bruins played precisely their brand of hoop – forcing 31 total turnovers and getting 38 points in transition. Also helped to get a Jordan Adams appearance. He was 6 for 11 (55%) en route to 19 points against Stanford. In all other Pac-12 conference games, Jordan is shooting just 34%. Oh by the way, welcome back to the win column, D. Nothing like playing the Cougs to jump start your defense!

Biggest Loser: There’s an unfortunately long list of teams this weekend. Utah has yet to win a road game, Cal lost to USC, Colorado can’t score, and Washington State is. And let’s be honest, I have issues with decisiveness. But for you guys – for us – let’s pick one. If we run with Utah then we forget the fact that they were on the road and played very competitively (second best ppp vs. Arizona in conference play). The road is tough to win – always – which is why I’m even inclined to ignore part of Cal’s transgressions. They had been playing pretty out of character good and they were due to come back down to earth. Biggest loser seems a tough label. A similar argument can be made for Colorado who lost their best player and has since played three of their four best opponents (per KenPom). Remarkably bad timing. Then, to call WSU the biggest loser just seems mean. Wait. Did I just talk us out of making any decision? Dammit.

What we Learned: There are some really good players in this conference. From Roberto Nelson and CJ Wilcox scoring all over the place in the Northwest; to Josh Scott and Delon Wright doing their respective things in the mountains. Need a tiny guard shout out? Jahii Carson and Chasson Randle are terrific. None of them are as good as Nick Johnson and Kyle Anderson. Johnson is playing with at a level I didn’t know he had. He has asserted himself as the unquestionably best player on the unquestionably best team in the country. He’s scoring and stopping the best player on your team. Meanwhile, Kyle Anderson is a one stop shop of effectiveness. Points and passes and rebounds and shooting; I think he’s more versatile than Myles Jack. I love POY races and so I present to you the Pac-12’s. It’s gonna be awesome.

In Defense Of: I used 175 words to basically defend every team that got swept away this weekend so I’m not entirely sure I’ve got anyone to defend. As an eternal optimist, however, and in light of some negative commentary I had regarding the turn of this Pac-12 season, I’m inclined to defend this Conference of Champions. Parity is a word that gets thrown around to excuse shit. That’s really just the way it is. But there’s something to it. There’s something to noting that a team can blow out Washington and Oregon, then lose to USC (Cal). KenPom discusses it and says that this year, amongst all others, there may actually be true parity – or at least moderate discombobulation – across the country. I don’t intend to excuse what I perceive as a rough 3 weeks for the conference, but perhaps Utah is just a good basketball team? Maybe Oregon just hit their growing pains a little late? Suppose Jahii Carson just hit a wee slump? The damn Sunday Blues, I’m tellin’ ya.

The YouTuber: I’ve watched this at this point now but knew I had to include it, sight unseen, because it sounded perfect. And it is. Or at least bear with it until the end:

A Friday Runaround the Pac: It Sucks Edition!

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Today, with an emphasis on brevity, I wanted to fly through the Pac-12 as we watch it somewhat begin to bottom itself out. I ask that you read that opening line with that wide-eyed look of faux joy and genuine insincerity when you say something true and painful that you don’t really want to wrap your mind around but you must. Because this conference currently has teams in free fall, limbo, shock, and infancy. There’s one team of predictable performance and after that things appear to suck (they don’t but let’s just be fans on a Friday before a fun weekend. Hey…WHO’S BROTHER IS IN TOWN? This guy!)

Utah – They’re lost on the road, struggling to survive and scraping by on whatever they can. They’re not winning but they’re not dying either. This is a brief plot summary of Utah’s season and Cormac McCarthy’s The Road. Larry Krystkowiak, fortunately, is more articulate than The Son.

Washington State – You need talent to win basketball games and DaVonte Lacy hasn’t played (excluding an injury inducing 11 minutes against ASU) since Bieber retired. Also, not even DaVonte is enough here.

Washington – The Huskies are proving that you can win with a bad offense and a bad defense. Seriously, they’re 4-3 and yet in the bottom half of in the conference in ORtg, eFG%, TO%, OR%, FTrate, 2P%. 3P%, FT%, and Tempo and each of the corresponding defensive calculations. That’s bottom half in 16 of 18 categories and the only two (defensive eFG% and 3p% against) correspond mathematically and the latter is often tossed up to luck. You silly purple team.

USC – DJ MalSki, their top defender.

UCLA – “You’ve got to make Tony mad. He had a really ugly outfit on. He wore red in our office, and that’s just something you don’t do. Make fun of his outfit a lot and that bothers him.” – Steve Alford on how to get Tony Parker going. He’d score 22 on 9-14 against Stanford. Curious if Xavier Johnson was listening?

Stanford – Just not that good. But maybe tonight?

Oregon State – FLOTUS GIF!

Oregon – I mean, why not Washington State, too?

Colorado – There’s still something there (if not just a raging, irrational fire in the belly of Xavier Johnson who has now predicted a 20-point blow out of #1 Arizona on 2/22 in Boulder a game I will be attending) but it’s tough to play the two best teams in the conference after losing your best player. That said, in light of XJ’s comments, maybe a shift in humility is in order?

California – I’m going to chalk up their loss at USC to the MalSki effect. Cal’s seen zone defenses and fast offenses and man defenses and deliberate offenses, but they ain’t never seen beats like that.

Arizona State – Jahii Carson shoots 31% in ASU losses (5) and 50% in ASU wins (14). Stop Jahii, win the game. And may the odds be ever in your favor.

Arizona – “What a team. What a game. How fun. I’m going to sleep in the desert tonight.” – Bill Walton.

UCLA’s Transition Offense from Defense and More. Much More.

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Take this journey with me because that’s what it became. I’d set out to discuss UCLA versus Cal and their contrasting abilities to steal the ball and to not let the ball be stolen, respectively. But then a Wonderland twist of fate had me follow John Wooden down the rabbit hole and I wound up with an opinion on Westwood’s coaching situation. Like I said, buckle up cause it’s a long strange journey and that’s not even a Walton reference.

The UCLA Bruins aren’t soon going to be confused for a great defensive team – they’re good so don’t get me wrong – but not great. They yield 97 points per 100 possessions which is 50th in the nation. That’s good but like I said, it’ ain’t great. They rate as just the sixth best defense in the conference (the same conference that rates Oregon’s defense).

But what you might be able to say about their defense is that it is opportunistic. Like any intelligent entitiy, they recognize what they do well and they exploit it. It’s why Katniss Everdeen grabs the bow and Jordan Belfort grabs the blow. What UCLA does so well is get into transition. They take 29.7% of their offense in that go-mode (12th in the nation) and having watched them play, they make a very concerted effort to get into this facet of their game.

Before going into the offense – because I already defined this a defensive article and the Bruins are really effing good at the offense – I want to establish the components of UCLA’s defense and how it opportunistically feeds their offensive beast. We could break this down by a good, bad and ugly with the caveat that it’s really more like the good, less good, and meh:

The Ugly/Meh: Kyle Anderson’s goatee. Too far? Sorry. UCLA doesn’t protect the rim. They allow opponents to shoot 61.8% (260th nationally) and take more than a third of their shots there. That’ll add up.

KA HairThe Bad/Less Good: Teams manage to shoot pretty well against the Bruins. They “limit” teams to an average eFG% which is a combination of the aforementioned rim protection and a very high percentage of three pointers taken against them. Make more threes, increase your eFG%. This is essentially a matter of math but it’s an average output by the Bruins regardless. Regarding the threes, teams have been allowed to jack up 6th highest percentage of threes in the nation and they make a little bit below the average 3FG%(33.8% ranks 153).

The Good/Good: Steals! UCLA has the third highest steal percentage in the nation and has taken away 192 basketballs (interestingly that’s second most in the nation to Shaka Smart’s VCU team whom many UCLA fans thought should be the head man in Westwood because of the defense he coaches – just an interesting note). Furthermore, while the ‘less good’ section informed us that teams are making shots against the Bruins, when teams do miss, the Bruins do a pretty good job of jumping on the defensive glass. Go Joe Bruin was quick to note it isn’t necessarily a Bruin strength but they do manage to clean up alright: teams garner just 27.3% of their own misses against the powder blue (26th best in the nation).

Feeling settled on the defense? I feel like I understand it better and recognize that – again – it’s not great but it more than gets the job done. But what is the job? Traditionally a defense is built to limit the opponent. But if defense isn’t necessarily the Bruins’ strong suit, if they play more zone than a Steve Alford team is accustomed to, then the ‘job’ of the defense isn’t necessarily to stop the opponent but to accentuate the Bruins’ strengths. That’s arguably why they play more zone than man. They’re just better suited to it.

Here is a breakdown of how UCLA uses it’s defense to feed their offense:

UCLA's Transition OffenseIt’s pretty clear to me that UCLA would get a higher percentage of their transition shots off a rebound as teams are likely missing more shots than UCLA is stealing basketballs. The chart confirms that they use all those steals to ignite their fast break (12.8% of which I wish I had a national ranking). But we still don’t really have much context. Allow me another sweet graph, this time comparing the transition ignition breakdown including the next best Pac-12 transitions teams, Oregon and Colorado:

UCLA, Oregon, Colorado TransitionUCLA blows these guys out of the water in our third column (steals) while Colorado leads the break out of rebounds and Oregon out of opponent scores. The Buffaloes are great defensive rebounders. The Ducks are great opponent-letter-scorers.

But more on Steve’s team. UCLA’s offense ranks 22nd in the country by ORtg and 10th in eG%. It is their greatest strength and it is fed – as stated – by their transition offense which is fed by the aforementioned defense. The equation of it all looks a lot like this:

Steals + Defensive Rebounds = Transition Offense

Very simple, yes, and probably flawed, but this where it all gets fascinating. Steve Alford, in the Ken Pom era (since 2003) has never coached a top-100 steal percentage team. Additionally, the last two teams he coached at New Mexico didn’t come remotely close to the top of any transition offense list (ranking greater than 200th in % of offense in transition in both 2012 and 2011). Furthermore, this team’s defensive efficiency is the fifth worst amongst Alford coached teams since 2003 and the hands down best offense in that span.

What I think just happened is that I explained to us that Steve Alford is doing one helluva job. This team – a team he inherited and didn’t build but with his own son – is doing things no team of his has ever done. He recognized where and how this team could be its best and made sure to accentuate what he felt they could be best at.

I opened this piece by telling you that the defense was opportunistic. We moved our way along to discover that they used steals and defensive boards to ensure they could do what they do best. Then the journey took us down the path of discovery that Steve Alford has made adjustments, been anything but bullheaded, as the leader of the most storied basketball program in the history of the sport.

In light of such, I’m tempted to follow another tease down the judging coaches rabbit hole. But that would put us in some sort of a Catch-22/hypocrite scenario in which I’d diatribe about not judging a coach with 900 words sitting above that diatribe about what a great coach the coach we shouldn’t judge is. I’ll refrain.

Besides, Alford and his transition show just dropped a game at Utah and has one tough assignment ahead of them with Stanford and Cal coming tonight and Sunday, respectively.

And with that, I’ll transition out. The journey endures.

Q & A with Colorado Buffaloes. No Reviews.

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The Colorado Buffaloes will be returning to the unfriendly confines of the McKale Center. They haven’t been there since last January when Sabatino’s perfect hair hit an imperfect buzzer beater. And that’s the last of our monitor mentions (not). But ultimately that just adds to the lore of this budding rivalry. Did you know that the average score – since both were Pac-12 teams – is 69-66, Arizona? They’ve split all six meetings. This, is a rivalry whether you want to admit it or not.

And therefore I go to the enemy – once again – to gain insights into the program that plays its games in a Keg and encourages its fans to blackout. Here is the roll call:

  • Jason Gilligan – Here is your new barometer for statistical analysis. I don’t write anything about an advanced stat before running it past JG (contributes to All Buffs)
  • James Lucas – Admin at All Buffs and resident oil connoisseur. But oil is irrelevant to the fact that he is, first and foremost, a Colorado Basketball fan (aka, football didn’t lure him into the black and gold). Not a lot of those.
  • Ben Burrows – Author, editor, brilliant mind behind Rumblin’ Buff – The Rumblings of Deranged Buffalo. He knows all about Buffs and Beer.

I always appreciate these guys’ insights and know you will, too. What’s more, I can’t wait to absorb the 2/22 tilt in Boulder with these guys. While my family and some of my best friends go to my ex-girlfriends’ wedding, I’ll be in The Keg.

Just try, give me something, about Spencer Dinwiddie and then we’ll drop it because otherwise it’s detrimental.

Jason: I miss him and I hope I never see him in a CU uniform again.  I hope he gets healthy quickly, gets drafted in the first round and fulfills his childhood dream of playing in the NBA.

James: There are no words for how bad I feel for that kid. Well, not in English. They may have one in German, but the loose translation of it to English is “fastidious burrow”.

Ben: There are no words, at least ones worth putting to paper, that can adequately describe my feelings when I saw Spencer Dinwiddie collapse in Seattle.  I was stunned into numbness.  It struck me to my very core.  Surely, much of that is borne out of, what you termed, the ‘selfish joy’ of getting to watch the young man ply his trade on the hardwood, but it goes deeper than that. I feel for him.  It’s genuine heartbreak.  With the understanding that Dinwiddie is an honestly good kid who worked extremely hard to get where he is today, to see him reduced to tears for playing the game he loves… it’s hard to comprehend. With the diagnosis now official, at least there’s finally some direction to the story.  Spencer is done for the year, and, now after a successful surgery, will be able to focus on his recovery.  As with all things in life, the narrative doesn’t end, it just transforms.  He will be back, and we will all get to share in that ‘selfish joy’ once again, whether here or in the NBA.

Most important player: Askia Booker, Josh Scott, other?

Jason: Booker, CU needs Booker to play well to win; he has the ability to shoot CU out of games.  Scott is clearly the best player on the team right now, but Ski is more important in my opinion because of the way he can negatively impact the game.

James: Gotta be Ski. Josh is our best player now, but Ski is the heart of the team. And watching him the last two games has been incredible. Re-enforces the belief that some had that a lot of his “wildness” on the court was due to the fact that he had Spencer to keep it calm. Now that Spencer’s gone and Ski runs the team, he’s been an efficiency machine. As Ski goes, so go the Buffs. Meanwhile, Josh just dropped another 19 & 8.

Ben: Tough one. Both are vital to the Buffs without Dinwiddie, and both have stepped up in his absence (Scott – 39 points, 16 rebounds last weekend; Booker – 34/8/8; combined – 61% from the field).  Both are team leaders, and a quiet night from either severely limits Colorado’s ceiling. In reality, the answer is Scott, if only because there are few players in the conference that can actually guard him.  He demands a double-team on the block, which opens up opportunities for others, and his 15-18 foot jumpers make him a very difficult assignment. Askia’s transition into a more efficient player will be very important, but the offense (and, to an extent, defense) now runs through Jelly. It must be said, however, that they can’t do it alone.  Just look at last Thursday’s game against UCLA.  The pair had a fantastic game (40 points combined), but CU rarely threatened in the second half.  The culprit was the 16 point, 13 turnover, 22% shooting effort from the rest of the roster.  Whether it be Xavier Johnson, Jaron Hopkins, or the rare assertive offensive night from Wes Gordon, someone else has to contribute for CU to compete.

Last season, when Colorado was outdueling Arizona, they shot exceptionally well from deep. This season the Buffs once again aren’t the greatest three point shooting team (31% ranking 287th nationally, 11th in the conference). Are there any deep threats or does Colorado really just need to cross its fingers when it’s time for bombs away?

Jason: Booker is always a threat to shoot a lot, but not necessarily to make them, but CU’s got to hope for the best, there are no “shooters” on this team.  It is interesting though that CU took 15% more than their average amount of shots from mid-range against USC; maybe they were just prepping for Arizona, because Arizona limits shots at the rim and from 3 and makes opponents shoot mid-range jumpers.

James: Do we count Beau Gamble who’s lighting teams up at a 40% clip? No? OK. Then no, we don’t have anyone and it’s prayer time. There’s always the hope that Ski gets hot from behind the arc, but we’re not going to be a bombs away squad.

Ben: Ski’s gonna Ski, and, while the erstwhile John McClane of the basketball world has calmed a bit in the wake of Spencer’s injury, he’s always weapons free from beyond the arc. Beyond Booker, however, three-point shooting is significantly less promising and consistent. ‘Big X’ Xavier Johnson is fantastic as a set-shooter, and, if he doesn’t have to move, can lob bombs from the top of the arc with accuracy.  The problem is, he’s fallen in love with moving into his shot as of late, and he isn’t nearly as accurate off the dribble, or even just stepping into his attempt.  As a result, he has lost 12 points off of his percentage from a year ago, making him decidedly less dangerous. I like ‘Little X’ Xavier Talton from range, but the numbers won’t help me.  He’s got a compact, calm, repeatable mechanic that seems destined to become lethal.  To date, however, he isn’t nearly consistent enough (7-32), which is very surprising.  He should be more productive. Freshman (and Arizona local), Jaron Hopkins has made a couple of big shots this season, but is more of the spray-and-pray type.  Sometimes I think he’d be better off closing his eyes when he heaves.  If he’s making threes against you, just shrug your shoulders and move on.

But offense was never necessarily the way Colorado would won this game. Defense, as it were, is the crux of Tad Boyle’s success. Let’s start at the rim (I love analyzing shooting at the rim). Boyle made a point of protecting the rim and you, Jason, broke down Colorado’s rim protection. To note, the Buffs allow just a 51.9% FG% at the rim. Thirty-sixth best in the nation. How does Colorado do this? (NOTE: Arizona has the 3rd highest FG% at the rim: 76.7%)

Jason: CU doesn’t gamble on defense, they don’t deny passing lanes, they don’t deny the post, they just play solid man defense.  So they don’t give up a lot of layups due to lobs into the post nor do they give up a lot of backdoor cuts (I see you Oregon).  Guys are rarely out of position which makes protecting the rim much easier because there are actually guys between the ball and the rim…..

James: We don’t gamble. I wish we were a little more adventurous at times, but Tad has pretty much made it obvious that his plan is to line up against our opponents and say “we think our guys are better on D than yours are on O”.

Ben: Coach Boyle has instilled a paranoia in the team as regards to rim defense.  They’d much rather give up numerous open and semi-open perimeter looks than give up even one layup attempt.  As a result, the pack-line is well defended, and there are few opportunities for easy looks outside of transition. I should also mention that Coach Boyle’s recruiting philosophy plays a large part in this.  He loves the ‘tweener’ athlete build, so if you’re 6-6 with good length and strong defensive habits, expect a call from Coach.  The effect is that almost anyone in black and gold is comfortable defending in the post.  

Tell me about the strengths of this front court. UNLV successfully used their front court strength to get the Wildcats uncomfortable and open some things up for shooters. The Rebels didn’t win but they got damn close. How might the CU collective do similarly?

Jason: I was cautiously optimistic about this game a couple of weeks ago, Arizona really only goes 7 guys deep and Spencer and Scott are two of the best in the Pac12 at drawing fouls and getting to the line.  I think that’s a key to this game, if CU has any shot, they’ve got to get Scott the ball where he can hopefully be efficient and get the Arizona bigs into foul trouble. 

James: We need Josh Scott to go beast mode. If he can get all 9 of your big men in foul trouble, we may have a chance on this one.

Ben: I cannot emphasize how good Josh Scott is becoming. Ask USC, eschewing a double-team of the Colorado Springs native is done at your own peril.  The weight he put on over the offseason has paid off, allowing him to take more shots at the rim (20 points higher than his freshman campaign), and play more of a factor on defense and the boards. Compounding the issue, he’s becoming more comfortable with that 15-18 foot jumper, making him lethal from all areas of the court.  Oh, and he also hits his free throws at a 83% clip.  There’s a reason, after all, that he’s only finished two games with a sub-100 offensive rating this season.  College defenders just don’t see a player of his skill set that often. Wes Gordon compliments him very well. He’s still very raw, but his defense alone makes him a worthwhile addition in the paint.  He’s got hands of stone, but he gets those rocks on plenty of loose balls.  Not much of an offensive piece yet, but he has shown flashes (13 points against Washington). Combined, they play very good defense around the rim, stretch would-be defenders to guard outside of their comfort zone, and rarely foul (both in the national top-500 in fouls called per 40 minutes). If Josh has a monster game, and Wes does his damage without the ball, CU could be alright.

Furthermore, Arizona crushes the offensive glass (9th best nationally). How much of a concern is that for the Buffaloes considering they’re the 4th best defensive rebounding team in the country?

Jason:  I want Arizona to crash the boards; this is the only way CU has a chance to pull off something improbable.  CU’s defensive rebounding numbers are largely inflated because teams (USCB, Wyoming and Harvard) didn’t even try to go after offensive boards, instead sending defenders back on defense in order to keep CU out of transition.  If Arizona goes after offensive boards, that means CU’s getting opportunities to get out on the break where they take the 17th most amount of initial FGA’s in transition (34.2%), please go after offensive boards.

James: Big concern. Our defensive numbers are slightly inflated because no one crashes the boards against us because they don’t want us to run. Arizona can crash and still get back. It’s going to be interesting to see how Sean handles this.

Ben: I’ll admit that some of CUs defensive rebounding numbers are skewed by non-conference games against teams who abandoned the glass almost entirely to cut off the Buffs in transition, but the Buffs are a very good rebounding team, even better than they were last season. ‘But, how can that be so,’ you ask, ‘didn’t they have the super-human rebounding machine, Andre Roberson, in ‘12-’13?’  Yes, ‘Dre was a monster with the ball in the air, but his brilliance allowed his teammates to sit back and enjoy the show.  This year, it’s a team effort, and the rate is up about five points, as a result. Certainly, the Wildcats will be a challenge heretofore unseen on the glass.  CU rebounded just fine against Kansas (another strong offensive rebounding team, held them to 8 offensive rebounds), however, giving me hope that the Buffs can continue to hold their own.

Did Askia Booker just take a jump shot? Sorry, I couldn’t tell. Maybe I’ll just check the monitors.

Jason: People lie whey they say “You’re not too bad for an Arizona fan”

James: “Hate” is a strong word. It also applies here.

Ben: You know, I’m honestly over the ‘Chen’ incident.  We got our pound of flesh between the Valentine’s Day Massacre, Ed Rush getting fired, and Askia’s Miracle.  It’s a sexy layer to the rivalry, but that’s all at this point.

What concerns you the most about this Wildcat team?

Jason: Arizona’s defense only allows 16.4% of shots in the half-court to come at the rim, CU takes 40.3% of their shots at the rim in the half-court offense.  As I stated before, CU’s strength isn’t exactly its shooting, if CU can’t get to the rim it could be a very long night.

James: Everything. They’re #1 for a reason.

Ben: Defense. The Buffs can frequently struggle in the halfcourt, and when I see defensive numbers like a 41% eFG and an absurdly-low 18% of shots at the rim, I’m smelling a rough night for Colorado. If the threes don’t fall, and if CU gets nothing in transition, it will be a long night, regardless of what Ski and Josh manage.

And the big one: How does this game play out?

Jason: CU covers the spread and keeps it around 10 points in a game that was never as close as the final score indicates (largely b/c Miller feels sorry that CU’s missing Dinwiddie)

James: When Spencer went down, I said that you can’t really count the next 4 games and that our season starts over on 2/1 against Utah. Too many unknowns, players in roles they aren’t familiar with, uncertainty everywhere. I stand by that. Combine that with the fact that Arizona knows they’re on national TV and I don’t see them letting up. Zona rolls – in a game that will hopefully lay the groundwork for CU to get their revenge on 2/22.

Ben: Wallowing in the despair of the 40 hours between the UCLA and USC games last week, I feared that CU would struggle to crack 45 against the UofA and their vaunted defense. After the sunshine of the USC game cleared my mind of such depressive thoughts, I’ve since re-evaluated. Colorado’s offense isn’t broken, it’s just a re-work in progress.  Sure, playing the #1 team in the land at their place isn’t the best time to further the educational process, but I no longer fear the epicly unwatchable. I still don’t see any chance that Colorado can steal away with a win, but I do expect them to push Arizona for stretches.  The Buffs are their ‘kryptonite,’ after all. In the end, however, CU’s struggles in the half-court, the home crowd, and the still-developing rotation take their toll, and Colorado slips in the second half. UofA 70 – CU 55

Week 4 Pac-12 Hoops Preview

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We’ve reached a little beyond the halfway point of the first half which means we’ve completed one quarter of the Pac-12 season. Math! But that’s the obvious and there’s really no need to discuss points in schedule unless it’s in reference to our proximity to the glory of March. If I had a dollar for every time I’ve had to give a tentative reply, an ambiguous answer, or a confirming no to a request for my time during March I’d have $4. That’s a lot of invites you guys! Who wants to Segway?

GotW: There is some spice in this week’s lineup with Colorado visiting Arizona, Utah hitting the road fresh off their home stand, and Oregon’s implosion (too early, right?). And while we’re taking a funneled approach to one single game, I’ll note that the Bay Area’s trip to Los Angeles is a huge road trip. Stanford is playing some inspired ball once again and UCLA is just good (I’m ok with the Utah loss). Which ultimately lands us on the anchor of the Pac-12 slate, Cal’s visit to Pauley. I think I’m going to try to extrapolate this matchup later in the week but Sunday’s battle in Westwood is a significant one as UCLA really needs this one to keep pace atop the conference. They’ve dropped one at home to Arizona and then the aforementioned Ute-flop. That’s two losses as compared to Cal’s zero. One guy that could prove important in this game is Jordan Adams. He’s unmistakably one of the best players in this conference but since the conference season started, he’s shooting just 37.5% from the field. That’s compared to 49.6% out of conference. To say Adams is slumping is to say the Ron Jeremy ‘Wrecking Ball’ video is weird. Both are true. The Bruins need Adams, however. No one needs that Jeremy video.

Game to Avoid: Oregon State is visiting Washington State and this one – on a Wednesday at 7pm – is doing nothing for me. I’ll get the obligatory positives out of the way in stating that Roberto Nelson is really great and it was a great win the Beavers on Sunday. Big kudos, guys! Later in this post you’ll even see a great GIF of Craig’s sister (it’s awesome). But I could do other things beyond watch this. Namely, DOUBLE BIRTHDAY PARTY SATURDAY!

Something to Prove: I’ve harped on their record while making passive jokes and statistical analyses of their defense. These are criticisms and I do this out of love. We believe in the things we love but at a certain point, even the things you love can let you down. SO PROVE SOMETHING TO ME OREGON DUCKS! Their road isn’t soon getting any easier even if Spencer and I called the trip to the Evergreen State the easiest. They’ve buried themselves in a hole that might not be big enough to dance in if they don’t PROVE SOMETHING TO ME. Or us. Or really – because this is all stemming from the defensive end and defense becomes a matter of effort – to themselves. The Ducks need to prove to themselves that they’re for real and they haven’t necessarily put themselves in a good position to do it. At 1-4 they’re already in an uncomfortable place and this weekend they’re not at home. If I had the insights I’d get personal and maybe start naming names but I don’t have anything beyond anecdotes and a hunch. I don’t like to call out names on that. But soon…And after all of that Duck talk, I think Arizona State has something to prove this weekend. They’ve underwhelmed thus far and that’s pretty boring. Jahii Carson should not be associated with boring. This is a big weekend for the Sun Devils if for no other reason than they should hold serve at home. Yes, Colorado and Utah are imposing threats but when you have things to prove – in my estimation – it has more to do with the man (men) in the mirror than any adversary. Whatcha got, Devils?

Something to Lose: I think we’re still at that point in the season (the one quarter point as we calculated) in which no one has anything major to lose just yet. Besides, I can’t say that Oregon has something to lose and prove in the same preview (they have more to lose). It’s UCLA here. They dropped that tough one at Utah which I’m OK excusing as a road hiccup. And now they’re back into Pauley and hosting what amounts to a pair of tough NorCal teams. Cal we’re noticing is balanced and pretty much tough as Monty’s while Stanford is enigmatically talented with age on its side. UCLA will be the best team on the court in both of their games this weekend but that doesn’t necessarily mean they’re going to win. The Bruins remain a youthful group with a slumping (as mentioned above) Jordan Adams. They’re arguably not entering this weekend the most confident group but they are at home and they are the better team. That equates to expectations and expectations mean you’ve got something to lose. Sorry Bruins.

The YouTuber: For the second straight week I’m going to drop a GIF on you and for the second straight week it’s worth it. I present to you: Craig’s sister getting buckets! And how awesome is LeBron? (ok, and the video)MichelleObama