Monthly Archives: October 2015

2015-16 Utah Basketball Preview: Not replacing Delon

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If it hasn’t been said yet, allow me: Welcome to the Pac, Utes! From the marked and steady progress of Larry’s program to this year’s football performance, Utah has taken full advantage of its place at the big kid’s table. They’re clearly playing the part on the court. But off the court? Just a brand new $36 million practice facility. Watch the video. Larry Krystkowiak’s office is bigger than my apartment (he’s also taller than me so it’s cool). And his team is probably better than yours. If you’re reading other previews, there’s going to be a focus on “replacing Delon.” In college basketball, if you’re trying to “replace” anyone, you’re in trouble. A college basketball season is a flash in the pan, a shooting star, Josh Rosen’s hot tub. It’s a 30-ish game sample set of whatever you can milk out of immature and budding talents. Delon Wright was exceptional. So, so good. You don’t replace him. You adjust, take inventory of the talent you have and that you’ve brought in, and you coach to that roster. Look at Arizona’s “struggles” last year as they seemingly tried to “replace” Aaron Gordon and Nick Johnson. That was never Stanley Johnson’s game. What Utah has going for themselves is a lot more known commodities as opposed to unknowns. Brandon Taylor is great. Brekkot Chapman is a sophomore! Jakob Poeltl might be the best player in the conference and Dakari Tucker – not Delon Wright – was the one who drove, drew contact and hit two free throws while down a deuce with 18-seconds left against Wichita State. He’s back.

And maybe you don’t like my Arizona analogy (relax, it’s my bread and butter). For the record, it’s probably the most optimistic you’ll find. I looked at Delon’s 2015 comparables (the players, according to KenPom, that most closely resembled Delon’s contributions). This afforded us access to just a small sample set (4 players + Jerian Grant who’s Notre Dame team has yet to play a season without him). The results showed that, the season after a Delon comparable left school, those teams achieved 3 fewer wins, about a 6% drop in offensive efficiency, while approximately maintaining defensive efficiency. Is this the hard and fast rule? Hell no. But I also think this serves as a good reminder of the aforementioned fluidity, brevity and immediacy of college basketball. One player does not a team make (except for Spencer Dinwiddie at Colorado). Heading into a given season we have no barometer but those 30-ish games played by a nearly completely different group. I wonder what the average percentage of returning minutes is across college basketball? For Utah it’s 75% which is very high and – considering the past success of that three-quarters – is good stuff.

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2015-16 Colorado Basketball Preview: Happier Buffs

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Let’s cut straight to the criticisms: few players have made marked improvements in the Tad Boyle program. There have been some – even three NBA draft picks – but with regards to making an individual “leap,” we qualitatively and quantitatively haven’t seen much. It’s concerning and it draws my attention to Dom Collier. It wasn’t the glamorous freshman campaign we might’ve expected. So unglamorous that Xavier Talton ticked big minutes at the point guard spot despite an 83.4 ORtg. That’s bad. So combine this with a team that already wasn’t overwhelmingly talented and the loss of arguably CU’s most dynamic player, Xavier Johnson (achilles), and I’m not high on CU hoops. But I’m an optimist. Not Rothstein-ian, but when examining rosters in the fall, the spirit ought be hopeful. Josh Scott is healthy and the Buffs have called a spade a spade: last season was a nightmare. The first step to recovery is admitting you have a problem. The Buffs know it. Now what they do about it – or what they’ve done about it, rather – should manifest on and off the court. Maybe the season’s future isn’t bright, but this season should have a lot more external (as opposed to internal) fight.

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THREE FOR BART: Shot clock, Haden, Utah hoops

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  1. 30-second shot clock doesn’t bother Oregon basketball – My gut reaction is, “Tell me something I don’t know.” Then you read an article full of Dana Altman quotes and again I react with, “Tell me anything.” But this is worth for Dana’s passive aggressive comments about his most impactful players as well as the fact that he discusses playing 11 guys will be critical. Did you know that Altman teams have pretty traditionally ranked in the latter half of bench minutes? He goes deep into that thing. More fouls won’t be a terrible concern.
  2. Outside of USC, Pat Haden holds more than a dozen roles that pay at least a half-million dollars a year – This article says that Pat Haden is a bad athletic director because he has too many peripheral jobs. Yet, if you have any familiarity with the role of an AD, he’s being called out for over reaching in a role that’s specifically built for creating reach. Someone tell me what Haden is doing besides making bad hires because from a fiscal standpoint I believe USC athletics is doing just fine. Additionally, if any of you would like to hire me to be a professional networker, I’m your guy.
  3. 2016 wing Josh Conley commits to Utah – You all know that I’m an Arizona fan. What you might not know is that there’s a slogan flung around by Nike – presumably propigated by Miller but who really knows – that says, “Arizona Basketball Never Stops.” As it were, there’s a pretty consistent Arizona basketball news cycle: TJ McConnell a 76er, Rondae buys his mom a house, Luke Walton (35) is the head coach of the defending NBA champs, etc. But here’s a piece on Utah signing their second significant recruit of the week. Utah basketball (athletics?) might not be stopping any time soon. (they also received a commitment from Devon Daniels).

2015-16 Oregon Basketball Preview: Returning minutes

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Are we about to see stability in an Oregon roster? As we preview college basketball teams, all we have to base prognostications upon are returning players. If you’ve paid any attention to Oregon, they’ve been the butt of every transfer-centric joke the past 3-4 years. When you gain the reputation as TransferU in modern college basketball, that’s saying something. Now returning minutes has rarely proven to mean much regarding future success. But it’s also rarely hurt anyone, either. So I repeat, are we about to see what a consistent Oregon roster is or can do?

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THREE FOR BART: Managing ESPN, Managing Finances, RTC Podcast

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  1. ESPN Tightens Its Belt as Pressure on it Mounts – From a media perspective there is so much to consider when reading this article. First of all, I initially couldn’t read it. I was blocked after a paragraph or two and asked to sign in or sign up. Other avenues allowed me to read in its entirety but I’d like to put it out there: Does anyone pay for online content? I pay for hoop-math and KenPom but not for the letters so much as the numbers. The second thing to note here is the changing means of media consumption. We’ve long known that live TV (SPORTS!) has been keeping cable subscriptions alive and lucrative, but we’re beginning to see the true pull of streaming media. Fascinating. Particularly the part that notes that ESPN can be undercut by its current distributors if they try to go to a direct-to-consumer model.
  2. Before Student-Athletes Earn a Penny, a Course in How to Manage Millions – What are the prerequisites for entry into this class? If I’m not mistaken, most of these guys are “going pro in something other than sports,” which ultimately means money management shouldn’t be any less important. Which kind of gives raise to a greater issue for me: higher education. Do you explicitly use anything you learned in college? I was a human biology major. I work in healthcare marketing and haven’t drawn the organic connectivity of a molecule since 2005. But I’ve had to figure out a budget (not of millions). Similar coursework would be great for the lay student. Alas, for those who are gifted enough to make millions playing sports, and considering the rate at which pro athletes are going broke, this is probably a good move.
  3. The RTC Podcast: Offseason Storylines (and Welcome Back) Edition – Linking here to the RTC podcast hosted by Randy and Shane Connolly. Always good insights here and I imagine the more listeners they have the more likely they are to regularly produce this thorough pod. NOTE: Some pretty serious ASU basketball talk in this national preview.

2015-16 Oregon State basketball preview: The terrible twos

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The family affair has arrived! The dual duos of head coach Wayne Tinkle + four-star power forward Trey Tinkle and assistant coach Stephen Thompson + four-star guard Stephen Thompson Jr. are great additions to the overarching Beaver family. Without paternal support on the bench there’s also four-star center Drew Eubanks. It’s a nice class we’ve been grumbling about for awhile now. I’m afraid, however, they’re not getting the Beavers over the hump and into the dance. But that doesn’t mean this team won’t cause fits. They did one season ago and while I don’t think this team is going to be sneaking up on anyone, an influx of talent never hurt a roster that featured five walkons just a season ago. If you’ll recall, they projected to be the worst high major team in the country. They weren’t that. This isn’t necessarily a team lining up for a glass slipper, but it’s a program on the rise.

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THREE FOR BART: Lopez Twins, Ray Smith, SI Preview

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  1. Welcome to Lopez Land. (You may know it as New York) – There’s Pac-12 splattered throughout this nice profile of the Lopez twins. But my favorite call out is the NYT quoting of friend of the program and over all good dude, Kevin Danna. In related news, the NBA tips on Tuesday night and I’m pretty fired up for that. Think about the NBA right now. It’s as exciting and broadly talented as I can remember. The league’s best player isn’t on a talent contending team – but he might be? I won’t derail this brief into a note the Pellies but Tuesday night is exciting.
  2. Injury bug hits Wildcats again, this time in basketball – I was going to make Ray Smith the “Stat you must know” for my Arizona preview. He’s a dynamic “modern” basketball player with shooting range, length, and a bunch of other scoutitudes (that’s scout + platitude combined). You haven’t heard a lot about him because the summer before his senior year of high school he tore his ACL. Shortly thereafter he committed to play for Sean Miller and the rest of the 2015 class took to the summer circuits. Smith remained a highly rated recruit but the publicity didn’t swirl. And that was fine. Smith worked hard to rehabilitate and join a his new teammates in Tucson. And then, on Thursday night, he tore his other ACL. And that sucks.
  3. Sports Illustrated Pac-12 basketball preview – I’m a fan of the numbers. I like when we use past performance to predict future performance. The last few seasons, SI has done a great job leveraging the smarts of Dan Hanner and Luke Winn, to discuss preseason hoops. This year is no different. This preview shares some fantastic insights into the forthcoming season.

2015-16 Washington Basketball: Inexperienced abroad

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Some of you might be thinking, “Isn’t it time we read about a new head coach at Washington?” And your feelings would be valid (they’re always valid here, guys). He’s coached four progressively worse teams, had character (Robert Upshaw) and transfer/departure issues (Nigel Williams-Goss, Jernard Jarreau), has seen a steady decline in attendance, and hasn’t recruited at nearly the level he once did (ya know, like NBA players). That opening question is valid. But Lorenzo Romar is still the head coach at Washington. And this season he’s bringing…optimism? We have to be future thinking but Romar has a Top-10 class on campus right now, and another lined up for next season. You can’t tell me that anyone other than Lorenzo Romar would have Markelle Fultz – a Top-10 recruit – committing to move to Washington from Maryland. He’s a summer commit to the class of 2016. That is rare. Arizona only just got their first 2016 commitment. And Romar swooped him from Kentucky, Arizona and Louisville. In a day and age when CBB rosters are fluid, when roster management is a year-in-year-out endeavor, Romar appears to have set himself up for some annualized success. Something he hasn’t had in nearly half a decade.

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THREE FOR BART: AmeriLeague, Pac predictions, NBA scouts

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  1. AmeriLeague founder tells employees he’s actually someone else – Let’s explore this headline beginning at the end. A man assumed a fake identity and has come forth as someone else. As his employee, this can be concerning. Now, AmeriLeague? This is the professional basketball league aimed at ruining your recruiting class. “Cerruti Brown” – the man who actually doesn’t exist – had formulated a semi-Pro league in which he’d begun recruiting some of the top prep players to play, domestically, for a salary. As it were, the league has gone completely defunct, although it seems it might’ve never had nearly the juice it claimed. Or a real person at the helm. “Cerruti” was actually Glendon Alexander, a 1996 McDonald’s All-American (also on the burger all-stars that year: Bryant, Bibby, Jermaine O’Neal, Stephen Jackson, Rip Hamilton, Tim Thomas, Mateen Cleaves). Busy week for OTL.
  2. 2015-16 Pac-12 Predictions: Cal to break Arizona’s streak – It’s another week or so until I’ll publish my preseason predictions. It’s with that foreward that I leave CBS’ Pac-12 preview here without commentary…except this:
    • Agree: Conference is not “down;” Oregon is flying under the radar; Norman Powell is a huge loss; Stanford lost a ton; Enfield has a talented roster; Josh Hawkinson
    • Disagree: “…said one long-time Pac-12 coach.” That was Ernie Kent or at least he said as much; Picked Cal first only to note their returners were wildly disappointing; You don’t replace Delon Wright.
  3. Colleges Cut to the Chase, Holding Practices Just for N.B.A. Scouts – This is a great concept when it makes sense. Bold statement, right? But the reality it’s much ado about nothing, a slight grasp at some extra eyeballs (case-in-point: an article in the New York Times that mentions LSU basketball). But Ben Simmons has a great quote in there that pretty much captures my feelings on the matter.

2015-16 Washington State Basketball: Not Surprising

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“We do not notice Josh as much, and that is an indication, again, that he’s got a supporting cast around him that can score and do some things.” This is what Ernie Kent had to say about his All-Conference, baby faced Power Forward regarding the surprise that was 2014-15 Josh Hawkinson. I don’t believe it – not necessarily about Hawkinson but about his supporting cast. First of all, Hawkinson was an integral piece of Cougar overachievement last season. The Cougs were the 19th luckiest team in the nation (per the KenPom stat) which is an indication that they grossly outperformed their expected results. This stat, however, isn’t wholly predictive. So what have they added around Josh? Meh. It’s a commendable first recruiting class (not great but not abysmal) along with another year of system familiarity and growth. Will Washington State be any good? Not really. But they have an opportunity to surprise once again which – depending on whether you’re a glass half full or empty person – is a decent place to be in year 2 with a new regime (even if it is Ernie Kent).

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