Tag Archives: Dominica Artis

On the Oregon Ducks’ Lack of Defense

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For some time now I’ve speculated about the Oregon Ducks’ defense. I’ve had my concerns about it but I was having a difficult time picking on a team that was 13-0. I also couldn’t pinpoint the issue. If any at all. Perhaps I need to up my criticism game? But since winning their lucky thirteenth, the Ducks have stopped exactly no one from scoring.

Without the advantage of having watched a ton of Oregon basketball and with the advantages of having a social life and a highly analytical mind (which behooves me in sports and torments me in dating), I’ve come to the following conclusion about Oregon’s defense: they’re the perfect storm of bad. I’ll explain.

On Dana Altman’s roster, there are just a shade under two million guards. Loyd, Artis, Joseph, Calliste, and Dotson make up one of the most formidable back courts I’ve ever heard of. Offensively that is. Otherwise they’re a group contributing to the nation’s 152nd best defense. My assumption has been that the guards aren’t carrying their weight considering four of their top five players in terms of %min are guards. So I don’t think they’ve done their light front court any favors.

I’ll begin anecdotally and tell you that, certainly in their conference games, this perimeter group hasn’t done much to limit dribble penetration. It’s what my Buffalo friends told me. My Cal friends told me it had to do with an inability to protect the paint. Even my Oregon compatriots confirmed.

Porous perimeter defense theory confirmed anecdotally? Check.

Jim-Halpert-Sarcastic-Fist-PumpBut anecdotal tales of a perimeter defense lost at sea aren’t going to cut it here. This is PacHoops and while I talk to some of the most brilliant and trusted minds in Conference of Champion theory – seriously, my g-chat windows are to Pac-12 thought what Cafe Trieste was to the Beatniks – we need more than perception. This is some Ginsberg, Kerouac shit.

Let me begin by saying we’re going to go ahead and agree and assume that Oregon’s front court is already not the best defensively. They’re undersized and undermanned with Mike Moser (6’8″) and Richard Amardi (6’8″) getting the lion’s share of big man tick. Size doesn’t dictate defensive prowess but sometimes being the 11th worst defensive rebounding team in the conference (and 230th worst in the nation) while combining to commit more than 11 fouls per forty minutes can support that assumption. Ben Carter was expected to have a bit more impact but he sold his shoes and so he’s just now getting to lace them back up. Let’s move on.

Here is what Oregon’s defense breaks down to:

Oregon's DI’ll get this started with the jump shooting defenses and leave the rim stuff for later. The rim stuff is my favorite so we’ll call it dessert. The shooting D is slightly below average. The yellow indicates they allow an average amount of twos and threes as well as an average 3FG% against (158). That’s fine. Average defense masked by a superior offense can get things done. But that’s only on threes which is generally not the most exciting defense to discuss because, as KenPom explains, sometimes taking a three is like playing the lottery. Thus, three point defense becomes an interesting point of defensive philosophy. For the Ducks it seems to be a shot they’ll let opponents take a comfortable amount of, letting them gamble a little but not a lot.

So with regards to my porous perimeter theory, I’m left to see that against that very average number of two-point jumpers, teams are hitting a very un-average percentage of them. Opponents are shooting 37.3% in the two-point jumper range and that ranks 251st in ‘Murica. To me, and in an effort to support my theory, this suggests that the already undersized and undermanned front court is being confronted with the defensive challenge of stopping dribbling guards. To stop the same guys who’ve just blown past a Duck guard and who are now able to do one of two things:

  1. Hit a relatively uncontested two point jumper that teams are doing at a relatively high level, OR
  2. Getting to the rim!

Oregon is allowing 39% of shots against them to come at the rim which ranks 205th in the nation and 11th in the Pac-12. Now this doesn’t necessarily mean they do a poor job of defending the rim so we can cite their opponents’ FG% at the rim. This is 59.1%, 186th in the nation and 9th in the conference. Those powers combined – high percentage of shots at the rim and high percentage being made – and you have the perfect storm of bad defense. Penetration leads to easy jumpers or a shot at the rim.

Furthermore – and this might be the toughest part of it all – the Ducks are allowing the 226th highest free throw rate in the nation meaning – and this is a very loose description – opponents are getting to the line on about 43.1% of their possessions. This of course isn’t taking into account all of the factors that define a game’s possessions but it’s how I’ve chosen to explain FT rate in this context. It gives us an idea not a fact, chill out.

But why it further contributes to this poor Duck defense is that Oregon is playing with the 18th most possessions per game in the nation. Ipso facto, Duck opponents are getting more possessions too and if they’re getting fouled on those – or easily to the rim – then they’re going to score more points. More points = bad defense.

Porous perimeter defense theory confirmed quantifiably ? Meh.

Halpert ShrugDefense is so difficult to quantify and it’s really tough to pinpoint a single weakness without watching all of their games, breaking down tape. I’m not going to watch all of their games. And I won’t soon tell you Oregon is a good defensive team. We’ve gone pretty extensively into a few reasons why they struggle. Areas in which they can and need to improve.

I can say that Oregon is an average defensive team. Their defensive efficiency ranks just a few tenths of a point above average (103.3 vs. 104.1) and prior to entering Pac-12 play, Oregon had played a very average schedule. Their non-conference strength of schedule ranked 211th. Average opposition + average defense + elite offense = 13-0. Note that the Ducks’ three conference losses are to 3 of the 4 highest KenPom rated teams they’ve played. It’s why the Duck SOS was on my Fourteen Things to Watch list (#5).

This isn’t a Duck death certificate. As good friend and Duck fan Matt told me, “Altman’s defense is a process, not a formula.” I love this concept and believe he’s right. There were going to be growing pains with such turnover and Altman should be applauded for what he’s done. A season ago he was coaching a top-10 defense and a season later he’s coaching a top-10 offense. He’s done both successfully. Their current slide perhaps supports the adage that defense wins championships. The Ducks, after all, did win the 2013 Pac-12 Tournament.

The best part about defense, however, is it can often be a simple test of fortitude. Sometimes you can just choose to be a better defender. With Arsalan Kazemi not soon to walk into Matt Knight, I wonder what direction these Ducks will take?

Getting to know Oregon: Not calling them TransferU

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This team is completely different looking from last year’s sweet sixteen team. Which was completely different looking than the previous year’s NIT team. Which was completely different looking from the previous year’s CBI team. Dana Altman must have an advanced degree in change management because that’s all he’s done at Oregon. Most importantly, have you been noticing the Altman-era win column? Allow me: 21, 24, 28. The Altman-era conference finishes? Again, my pleasure: 7, 2, 2. On to 2013-14…

Why I love them: The guards. Artis quickly became a favorite of mine and clearly an integral piece to what the Ducks were trying to accomplish (5-4 without, 24-4 with). I also liked the guy – now a senior – that filled in during Artis’ absence, Johnathan Loyd. And I’m also very much loving this backcourt with Friday’s definitive addition of Houston transfer, Joseph Young. The team swapping junior brings his 124.1/22.7 (ORtg/%poss)…hold up, did I just tell you that Oregon adds the nation’s 26th highest ORtg to their roster? If that doesn’t meant anything to you I’ll synopsize: he’s good at scoring. And I’ll drop some similar ORtgs from last year: Kelly Olynyk, (123.3), Nate Wolters (123.5 – he’s the guy who dropped 53 in a game last year), and Victor Oladipo (122.8). His ORtg would’ve ranked second in the Pac only to Arizona’s Kevin Parrom who dialed in at a far lesser 17% usage rate. You loving this Oregon backcourt yet? I bet, AND I HAVEN’T EVEN MENTIONED DAMYEAN DOTSON. This guy might be my favorite back there. He arrived in Eugene, a late signee to an underwhelming 2012 class beyond the heralded Artis. Dotson swiftly dropped double figures in his first three collegiate games and never quite looked back. It was his efforts on the perimeter – hitting the three ball which Oregon struggled to do – that was integral in guiding Dana’s Ducks to a Pac-12 tournament championship and the sweet sixteen. Dotson hit 17 of his 47 total three pointers during the season’s final six games (P12 and NCAA tourneys). He showed up in the season’s biggest games and I LOVE THAT. Oh, and if it’s 2011-12 Mike Moser taking graduate coursework in Eugene…look out.

Why I hate them: I don’t know them and we tend to fear what we don’t know. Granted, I know my ex-girlfriend and I kind of hate her but I don’t really know anything about these Ducks. Their front court is completely rebuilt, do you know who Ben Carter is? Google his name and you get the website of a potter. As for the hoopster, I’ve been hearing buzz around his name but I’ll wait to see the honey. One Duck confidant called him “Arsalan Junior” which would suggest big things for the kid (see the QUOTABLE for more Carter love). There’s  Moser, he’s fantastic, but the same can’t necessarily be said about Waverly Austin. On the transfers-not-named-Moser front, Richard Amardi would seem to bring some heat. Again, unproven so we’ll see. As mentioned and highlighted, this is an overhauled front court missing Arsalan Kazemi, Tony Woods, and EJ Singler. I might even toss Carlos Emery onto that list. Point is: this team isn’t taking a whole new identity, they’re taking a whole new style. I think they’re talented enough to do it but it may take some growing pains.

Stat you need to know:

42

Three point shooting percentage of Joseph Young who is joining a team that shot just 33% from distance (202nd best in the country) last year. With open arms they welcome a shooter.

In their words: Matt writes for Addicted to Quack and he’s addicted to quack. He co-hosts the ATQ podcast and his favorite bird is a Duck. Has to be.

Coming off a Sweet Sixteen run, Dana Altman did this off season what Dana Altman does.  He reloaded with transfer players, 5th-year seniors and a couple of highly regarded prospects.  In the age of one-and-done players in college basketball, Altman isn’t afraid to utilize the same strategy, he just tends to make the 1 year the player’s 5th year in college basketball.  Add Mike Moser to the list of Arsalan Kazemi, Olu Ashaolu, Devoe Joseph, and Jay-R Strowbridge.  Moser is a huge addition to the front court for a unit that, while talented, is pretty young.

The strength of this team however is going to come in the back court.  Oregon is going to field one of the best back courts in the Pac 12, if not the country.  Dominic Artis, Damyean Dotson, and Pac 12 Tourney MVP Johnathan Loyd return for the Ducks.  Add to that 5th-year senior Jason Calliste (from Detroit 11.1 pts/gm) and transfer Joseph Young (from Houston 14.8 pts/gm) and Oregon has 5 sharp shooting scoring threats to throw at teams on a nightly basis.
All in all, don’t expect much different from the Ducks strategically.  With their talented back court and versatile front court, Oregon will continue to use the high post offense that keeps guys moving and gets guys open for shots.  On defense expect more pressure though.  With so much depth on the Ducks, Altman may be able to finally implement the full court pressure defense for 40 minutes that he’s always wanted to do.
Fans should be pretty excited coming off their first NCAA Tourney run in 5 years as the Ducks looked positioned for another chance to take the Pac 12 crown and make it back to March Madness.

Quotable:

“The frosh got some major burn early, then fell out of favor as the older Ducks took over during their Sweet 16 run. Carter is a former teammate of Shabazz Muhammad at Bishop Gorman in Las Vegas and was very well coached in high school. With Mike Moser as a 4/3 hybrid in the “pinwheel” offense, Carter can play both 5 and 4.” – Doug Gottlieb on Ben Carter’s potential to breakout

Outlook:  It’s nice, real nice with the addition of Young. I’m fully sold on what Dana Altman is doing up there that I’m considering wearing pleats, a white button down with green tie, and impeccable hair for Halloween. Sure there’s some concern about the sustainability of this transfer model but let’s ignore that until we see something that doesn’t resemble year over year improvement, deal? Now I’m not about to tout them as a top-10 team a la Gottlieb, but I clearly like this team’s back court and I want to go to South Korea with them (11/8 vs. Georgetown).