It’s raw. It’s perhaps not technically sound. But what would it be if not unexpert. WANE: Technical Difficulties is back. Spencer and I get back on the podwagon a week deep into 2015 (there’s New Year’s talk) and a week deep into conference play (SPORTS!). We begin season two.
LISTEN:
(you can also jam it here, on Sound Cloud):
When the rains subsided and the sun peaked out again, it was SantaCon in my neck of the woods. For me that meant the bar seemed full of Arizona and Utah fans – red galore. That’s why I was there, at least. For everyone else it was… well in New York, this guy mixed parties. In other news, I’m all about the news right now. I crushed All the Presidents Men and The Newsroom series finale last night. The latter of which I might be spoiling in the next paragraph:
A few thoughts on Charlie Skinner’s funeral: 1) Inordinate number of mega babes , 2) His grandson is always in the garage to play standup bass by himself? 3) Was Neal’s return the most triumphant return of all time or ever? 4) Seriously Jim? That’s your first move in that role? 5) Charlie stood for a renaissance of decency. That’s what Sorkin said. I’ll miss that show.
DaVonte Lacy is taking 67% of his shots from deep which seems like an exorbitant amount of three pointers. He’s shot 68 treys and made them at a 35% rate. Hoop-math unfortunately doesn’t do individual rankings but in my poking around, I built a hack-of-a-list of some of the most voluminous bombers around:
With 5:24 remaining in their game against Army, the Trojans led 63-54 and had about a 95% chance of winning. They lost, yielding an unfathomable 31 points over those final five minutes plus overtime. Army shot 95.45% eFG% over those final 10 minutes.
Before this season started I’d considered having an OSU tracker, noting on a regular basis how close to the major conference cellar these guys were. Turns out, they’re not going to be that bad and they’re a pretty good defensive unit. They’re limiting teams to the twelfth lowest eFG% in the nation and just this week picked up their first non-conference, high major win since beating Purdue on November 12, 2012.
I had a few things to say about Colorado last week and I said them in the following places:
How does one oversleep on the day of your first game in two weeks? Anthony Brown reportedly did exactly that Saturday morning which baffles me. Maybe he was exhausted from finals? Nevertheless, after sitting briefly he managed to score 17 points as the Cardinal had to comeback from an 8-point halftime deficit against Denver.
In conversating about the RTC Team of the Week, Andrew Murawa was trying to make the argument for Oregon as such. I ultimately talked him into picking Utah for the honor as I’m a sucker for road games. With that said, however, the Ducks did collect the best win (by KenPom rating) of the Pac-12 week. They knocked off KenPom’s #38 team, Illinois, in the less-than-triumphant return to the Pac-12 for Ahmad Starks. Also, for just the second time this season, Joseph Young did not lead the team in field goal attempts.
UCLA has almost no depth and it’s going to hurt them on occasion. You perhaps know my feelings on the overrated nature of depth, but the Bruins lack both depth and experience and that can often be a lethal combination. Four Bruins played 35-or-more minutes while the Bruins rank 333rd in % of bench minutes. UCLA didn’t lose to Gonzaga because they didn’t have enough players – Gonzaga is really good – but it didn’t help, either.
Wyoming is perhaps the most deliberate team in the country. They’re more contrived than a Newsroom monologue. So when they marched into Haas and exacted their style all over the Bears – a snail’s 55 possessions – it was impressive that Cal beat them at their own game. Cal is not one of the more offensively gifted teams in the conference so with the Cowboys trying to force Cal into long possessions and a slow pace, Ty Wallace asserted himself as the best player on the court (17 points, 8 boards, 5 assists).
Against what I’m told is a pretty good Eastern Washington team, the Huskies began raining threes late prompting this tweet:
Goss has Isaiah levels of clutch.
— Sean Kramer (@SKramerWrites) December 15, 2014
for this play:
WATCH: @UW_MBB‘s Nigel Williams-Goss pulls up from Queen Anne and nails the triple to put EWU away. #EWUvsUW http://t.co/A7u5gJ6zJl
— Pac-12 Networks (@Pac12Networks) December 15, 2014
Ya know, just some Delon Dunks:
I’m a little bit tired of the RichRod-Arizona-Michigan narrative but it seems to be a significant one. A recap of events from the McKale Center and Arizona’s most complete game of the season, an 80-53 drubbing of the Wolverines:
We’re going to give Power Rankings the old college try. Hike up the back of our drawers, grunt twice, and force rank folks one-through-twelve. My focus could meander, I make no promises on continuity or sense. Here’s our PacHoops Power Rankings debut.
But…before we get started, I’m open to suggestions on what to call this. Hit me up.
Look, you know my stance on this institution. My intro will therefore take a very matter-o-fact tone. Only later will I decide whether or not to let you fill in the blanks or if I color it for you.
Herb’s contract was extended on the heels of beating Arizona and a return to the NCAA tournament. Herb achieved the tourney invite by playing the fastest brand of basketball he’s ever coached. Not coincidentally, last year’s team was also the best defensive team (by national ranking of AdjD) Herb’s had in Tempe. Their offense was the second most productive (109 ORtg) he’s built in Wells Fargo. That tempo was motored by Jahii Carson. That defense was anchored by dPOY, Jordan Bacnynski. That offense was stabilized by Jermaine Marshall and the vaunted Jahishall (a three pointer assisted by Jahii – and while I can’t tell you exactly how many Jahishalls were made, 57% of Marshall’s shots were threes, 92% of those that he made were assisted, 62% of Jahii’s assists resulted in a three – that’s a lot of Jahishalls). Those three are gone. What remains? The Guilty Remnant Cult.
Why I Love Them:
I’m a big proponent of keeping local talent local around and so when Herb Sendek secured a commitment from Jahii Carson – and then much later received his NCAA clearance – it was a big. Huge for a program that went 12-19 the year before Carson enrolled and 10-21 the year he rode the pine. Once he saw the court, the Sun Devils were a bubble team right up until Vegas and finished 22-13. Need further proof that the kid’s a program changer? Carrick Felix’s ORtg without Jahii: 95.1. With Jahii? 110.4 and Felix was drafted by an National Basketball Association team. Maybe you’ve heard of that league. Jahii Carson changes lives.
Why I love them: Carson is the obvious reason to think highly of the Devils. He’s fully deserving of any print or voice he’s getting as an All-American. And have you been following any of these NCAA rules changes? Of course not. I did for whatever reason, however, and now allow me to synopsize with a quote from Bobby D (Pac-12 Coordinator of Officials):
“We are probably going to see more whistles than we have in the past.”
Well shit. And he quoted this in regards to hand checking rules and do you know who often draws the most hand checks? Riquickulous water bugs who blow by their defenders and already get to the line at a 42.4% clip. Expect the fastest guard in the conference, if not nation, to benefit from these rules changes. Of course Jahii is only 5’10” so he’s not always going to get a shot off. He’s gotta find someone to dish to, right? Enter Penn State graduate transfer, Jermaine Marshall. The numbers suggest that Marshall is a jump shooter – he took just 15% of his shots last year at the rim. Then, on all those shots he’s taking of the jumping variety, a high percentage of those are being assisted. Translation: Jermaine moves off the ball, gets open, hits shot. The off ball focus (also addressed by Bobby D) should behoove such a player as he runs around screens unimpeded by superfluous bumps and grabs. Between Jordan Bachynski on the block and Carson, Marshall should see plenty of open looks from the perimeter; a shot he’s proven he can make.
Why I hate them: HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAH
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
Ok, now that we’ve gotten that out of the way, I’m really not certain these Sun Devils are going to be able to defend at the level they need to. Carrick Felix was a huge defensive asset, capable of guarding up and down a lineup. In his stead, Jonathan Giling’s role grows and so too will his defensive assignments. Last year was Herb Sendek’s 4th worst defense – 97.4 AdjD – in his coaching career; Herb’s only real comments about defense – the cornerstone of his coaching resume – is that the new rule changes “could really have almost a revolutionary effect on the game.” Now I pulled that quote out of media day when Hyperbole Herb saw everything on the most macro level imaginable. But when I hear a man vaunted for his man-to-man defensive genius call certain rule changes “revolutionary,” I hear a man about to focus on speeding up his offense.
Stat you should know:
97
That’s the number of shots that Jordan Bachynski needs to block this season to become the Pac-12’s all-time leading shot blocker. He’s blocked 181 to this point – good for 11th in conference history. Last season the big Canadian dismissed 120 would be buckets. A repeat performance and he stands alone as the Prime Minister of Prevention.
Quotable:
“But we went through a period of time when we had more NBA draft picks than any conference in the country. We were spitting out lottery picks like nickels … our talent level is as good as it has been in a long time.” – Hyperbole Herb on the health of Pac-12 hoops
Outlook: I think the Devils have some really nice pieces and a relatively balanced roster. They’ll introduce to us a pretty good fill-in for Carrick Felix when MSU transfer Brandan Kearney becomes available during the second semester. And with one of the nation’s best players, you really can’t count the Devils too far out of things. Hell, Matt Norlander picked them to finish third. I’m not that high on them but Herb has pieced together a pretty decent little ball club. This year it’s been noted that he’s sitting on a pretty warm seat for past performances (see: 2010-12) and we haven’t seen the Devil dance since James Harden donned the maroon and piss gold. Are they going to be good enough to dance? JAHII WILL DANCE IN HIS FINAL COLLEGE SEASON (I’m going to regret that later). For the first time in a long time, the Sun Devils are playing a non-conference slate that’s a touch better than cupcake (@UNLV, Marquette, Creighton) and, because, Jahii.
Riquickulous:
The point of this site has never been to deliver you overwhelming statistical analysis. That’s me being honest and directing you to the likes of Ken Pomeroy and Luke Winn or some of my go to pals, @jgisland and @ontheproviso.
These are gentlemen who excel at Excel. Knuckles.
Me? I’m really damn good at watching the game and knowing that four points per game is fewer than fourteen. A regular Bill James here folks!
But let’s focus a touch deeper. I’ve always been curious about when a player makes his biggest leap. When he goes from scrub to star, role player to role model.
And this has piqued my interest because the Pac-12 has some interesting pieces getting older. Players who’ve performed well or hardly at all to date and I want to know – essentially based on anecdotal evidence (i.e. what I like to call tempo-full stats) – who we can expect big things from? Who’s going to make that leap to leader and usher his team from a Pac-12 team to the Pac-12 team.
To examine such, I compiled an arbitrary list of 21 Pac-12 players who participated in at least three seasons. The list itself was fun to build. Example: Did you know Brian Scalabrine went for 14/6/2 in 31mpg as a pup? That’s ridiculous. Do you know what Colorado fans would give to get that from Josh Scott? Or what UCLA fans would do to get those minutes out of Josh Smith – a top-5 offensive player in the conference? Alas, not every incoming player will put up White Mamba numbers but that’s what we aimed to look at here.
I was disappointed to find that there weren’t ORtg numbers going as far back as I’d like so I ran with good old fashion points/rebounds/assists and gut analysis. That’s to say, I built the spreadsheet and looked at the numbers and thought, “Yeah, those look better than those,” then highlighted the year in which the player’s numbers took the biggest jump.
I won’t spend any more of our time explaining the holes in this study and so without any further ado, the spreadsheet:
From this chart we find that 14-of-21 three year players showed their most dramatic statistical jump (most notably in points per game) from their freshman to sophomore year. Five players had their biggest jump from sophomore to junior and two players leapt into their senior year. One player had an arguably lesser sophomore season. Three players had arguably lesser years as juniors.
That’s the black and white look.
The Second-half-of-the-Wizard-of-Oz look (colorful) directs me to the Pacific Northwest and Abdul Gaddy. With this now senior, we find that his numbers didn’t quite high jump from FR to SO, but they did improve (4/1/2 to 9/3/4). But what I found most interesting is that his ORtg jumped 40 points – from 85 to 125. Ok, ok, it’s not fair to just throw ORtg stats into the equation all of a sudden but 40 is significant. It’s also not fair that Gaddy only played 13 games while recording that 125. But I’m not gunning for a Nobel Prize here.
I am, however, interested to see that guys like Patrick Christopher took his freshman year to develop into a consistent player. Dude put up essentially the same, very solid numbers for the three years following his debut at Haas. As did Arron Afflalo, the infamous Lukes, Channing Frye, and Darren Collison. Some terrific Pac participants.
What this says to me is that, above all else, players grow in confidence. Sure their minutes grow but I keep coming back to Gaddy and his improved output as an offensive player. He just became better at being a basketball player. He didn’t necessarily do more, he just did it better.
The numbers can also show us that this perceived confidence comes at different times. Look at Quincy Pondexter and Jerome Randle.
QPon perplexed and frustrated Husky fans during his tenure in Seattle but when push came to shove, he had a dynamic senior season. That’s the kind of stuff I love. That’s the fairytale stuff when the beleaguered vet wills his team to big things. He followed no traditional path but when you record 19/7/2 and lead your team to the school’s fifth sweet sixteen, you figured it out. And in the nick of time.
As for Randle – the conference’s POY in 2010 – he appears to have been the perfect recruit. He incrementally improved every year, stayed four seasons, and lead the school to a conference championship. What more could you ask for? OK, a national championship I suppose, but Randle did work year-in-year-out and it showed.
But I’ve been sidetracked from the topic at hand – biggest statistical leaps – and what we can learn from my spreadsheet.
My conclusion to this conundrum is that players make their biggest leap – as I suspected – from their freshman to sophomore season. Again, I’ll make no bones to the arbitrary nature of this analysis but I like my answer.
And you should be encouraged by my findings if you’re a fan of any of the following programs:
Colorado:
Arizona:
California:
Washington State:
And that’s just to name a few.
I’m not mentioning the likes of Chasson Randle (14/3/2) orByron Wesley (10/5/2); two very interesting players. Randle is going to be good – scary good – and so I’m not going to bother reiterating that. Wesley is no doubt solid but finds himself in a completely revamped lineup and while my “study” took into account exactly zero extenuating circumstances, Wesley is playing in an extenuating circumstance.
I’d also keep an eye on Norman Powell (5/2/1), Angelo Chol (2/2), Stefan Nastic (2/1), and Jonathan Gilling (7/2/2); players with emerging roles on each of their respective teams.
Look, this conference is back. The stage is set for a lot of this talent to emerge and if you look at the crop of sophs in the league compared to what their predecessors have accomplished, it’s my impression that the good kind of parity is back.