Tag Archives: Richard Solomon

Session 3 Preview: Wildcats, Utes, Bears, Buffs

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Moving forward, we shall call three-pointers made in the final minute Dakari Ices. Fading jumpers at the horn are still – and always will be – Cobbsicles. Back to the action. Because the real action begins today. I mean no offense to the games played already, they’ve been great. There has been a lead change in the second half of each and the first session was as March as it gets. Byron Wesley had a fair look at his own version of a frozen treat. It rimmed out.

But the real drama – games with Big Dance implications – begin today. We’re about to run through the lineup – some previews – but just take inventory for yourself. What are you doing for lunch? How can you find the Pac-12 Networks? Have you called Doug at Hooters San Bruno and heard him lament his DirecTV? I have. Today is the kind of four game slate that had me polling the g-chat brain trust whether naming my price on round trip airfare and bailing on two days of work like an obsessed super fan was rational. It’s not. So I’ll preview and stream, head to John’s – local deli with P12N – for lunch. Like an adult. I hate it.

Arizona vs. Utah – Noon PST
The Trifecta Game

Arizona swept the Utes this season which means about as much as a Frank Underwood hand written letter. Completing such a trifecta is rare and difficult [insert the number of times it’s happened because mining three seasons of conference data isn’t in the cards tonight]. UCLA managed to pull the trifecta on Arizona last year; and it cost their coach his job! So clearly the stakes are high.

But diving into the match ups, Utah is a terrible match up for the Wildcats. They have the size to force Arizona into two things they don’t like to do: shoot and not rebound. Apologies for the double negative and now let’s address the former. In Tucson, the Cats walked away with what looked like a relatively cozy win – 65 to 56 – but Arizona shot a sub-par 40%. The Utes forced more than 80% of the Wildcat offense away from the rim. Comparatively, Arizona usually takes 31% of their shots there. Utah forced the Wildcats to shoot and they missed. But they also rebounded, offensively (pun intended). In that game, Arizona grabbed 50% of the available offensive rebounds and subsequently turned those efforts into a win. Utah managed to flip the script in SLC, limiting the Wildcats to a minuscule 31% OR% (compared to their normal 38%). That game saw the Wildcats take 25% of their shots at the rim (better) and shoot the ball better (42% from distance).

ArizonaUtah

But ultimately, that game came down to two teams matching wills, a game the Utes had all but locked up. Until they didn’t. Should this game follow the aforementioned suit, TJ McConnell – for all of his facilitating glory – will need to hit some shots. Notice all that red space on the right pie? McConnell leads the team in FG% on 2-point jumpers. Utah is daring him to beat them. It’s obvious that All-American Nick Johnson (I like saying that) will need score, too. But the X-factor (and it was the case in Salt Lake and the guy we’ve kept an eye on all season) is Gabe York. The sharp shooter took his spot for the first time post-Ashley against Utah and promptly scored 15 points. Arizona would need every one of them to win in overtime and they’ll need every one of them again to advance.

To fulfill the Utah narrative, what would a win here mean? In short: lots. Larry Krystkowiak said his team would win this tournament. He has a terrific back court (everyone’s favorite and the most critical in March) and that aforementioned front line that has the ability to limit what Arizona does, offensively. Utah came out of the gates like a sorority girl out of a breakup: destroying cupcakes. They led us to believe, in pounding the second worst non-conference SOS in the nation, that their offense was their strong suit. They were scoring more than 80 points per game and lead the nation in 2pt FG% (I see you, Delon). But enter conference play and we saw the Utes’ true colors: the under-talented-but-hard-playing team Larry K told us they’d be in November. They’re the third best defense in the Pac-12 and the 29th best in the nation. How do they do it? To be honest, nothing particularly stands out about them. Statistically speaking that is. But they seem to do everything pretty damn well which, in my estimation, further fulfills the playing hard narrative K kicked all of this off with.

But do we really need to be discussing this much defense? Maybe the question is not so much can the Utes stop the Wildcats but rather outscore them? Probably not considering they’re the top defense in the land. But let’s just say this thing remains a scoreless battle (average 0.94 points per possession which is about equal to the offensive output of 7-23 Rice University). Where does Utah stand a chance in scoring? Delon Wright gets to the rim – in case I’d never mentioned it – but Arizona protects that space as well as anyone. Raising the topic Tony Jones and I discussed on the Twitter: spot up shooting. It’s a nice thing to have (Arizona doesn’t really) and a great thing to have with a creator like Wright. Brandon Taylor has filled that role effectively (40% on threes) but if he’s the only shooting threat on the floor (Loveridge 30%, Wright 25%) then it’s not terribly effective. But Dakari Tucker (Dakari Ice) can stroke it (38%). He doesn’t get the most tick (50.4% minutes) but he poses a threat perhaps otherwise unknown from Utah. And you saw Jason Calliste shoot Arizona out of Eugene coming off the bench. And you saw Dakari Ice do it to Washington yesterday. There’s a precedence for making hitting threes to beating Arizona. Is Tucker the answer? And because we discussed 2-point jumpers so much already, it’s worth noting that Arizona forces the highest percentage of 2-point jumpers in the country (51.7%) and Utah doesn’t want to take that shot. They rank 204th in percentage of 2-point jumpers taken and 133rd in FG% from there. Utes offense comes at the rim. Like their defense, they don’t overwhelm in one area of their offense, but when they do get to the basket, they’re making it – fifth nationally in FG% at the rim. Arizona, on the other hand, protects the rim as well as any team in the conference country.

Look, I tried to paint a positive picture of offense but it just might not be there. Does Utah have the size (again) and the shooting (first time for everything) to avoid the trifecta? Could we see some Swoop magic as Jordan Loveridge and Dakari Ice get hot from deep? Trifecta averted?

Or will Arizona just go on being the tournament’s odds on favorite?

Colorado vs Cal – 2:30pm PST
The Golden Goal Game

Let’s get this out of the way early because I’m not the type to live in conjecture or bracketology. This game is for Cal’s NCAA tournament-lives. They lose this game and they don’t deserve to be in the tournament, resume be damned. By no means is losing to Colorado a blemish but they’re just 7-8 since late January and you can only cling to beating Arizona for so long. This game ultimately embodies all of the drama of March considering these two couldn’t have played each other any closer than they did last week. Look at this roller coaster:Screen Shot 2014-03-12 at 11.06.21 PM

This was played into free basketball with fourth place or eighth place on the line for the Bears. Playing Colorado with significant ramifications is nothing new to Cal. But the same can be said for Colorado facing Cal. In 2011 – when all of the #RollTad got rolling in Boulder – Colorado defeated Cal twice in the course of two weeks en route to winning the inaugural Pac-12 tournament. Is it time for Cal to return the must-win favor? Or will this confidence shine through:

The Buffs – confident as it were – are pretty comfortably in the NCAA tournament. I’m not entirely sure what that means for them beyond the fact that they just played about even with the worst team in the Pac-12. But if we’ve learned anything about the Buffs, it’s a propensity to play to their opponent. We can take a Vegas theme to this and note that they’re 17-14 against the spread. Certainly they’re above .500 but not by much. They play right about to expectations. Nothing wrong with that so long as the left column is the one you’re filling up. Of course, per KenPom, Colorado is expected to win this game by just one point suggesting we’re in for a good one.

But not worthy here is the seniority factor. This, above all of our other four previews, is the one I lean the least on for statistical analysis. Neither team is easy to figure out and each has plenty going for and against them. Which leads me to Cobbs and Solomon. They’re the only contributing seniors on the floor in this game. The only affecters to be potentially playing their final game. That means something in March. It means something that Cobbs has scored 19 or more points in four of Cal’s last five wins including 21 points and 4 assists (0 TO) in beating Colorado last week. Richard Solomon added a double-double in that must-win for the bears. And once again these seniors are faced with a must win. Pay attention.

WANE: Our First Expert!

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From the get-go we’ve asked for patience as we work through not only a rough patch in Pac-12 hoops, but our lack of tech savvy. In this week’s WANE the ineptitude on the production side isn’t all that apparent but if you were a part of the mess, you’d understand. Listen for yourselves, however, because we did have our first guest – ever – on, and most certainly is an expert.

Ryan Gorcey – the editor of BearTerritory.net – joined Spencer and I to talk about the Cal Bears; a balanced team that’s endured a few different injury bouts and who jumped to a 5-0 conference record. They toe-stubbed in LA (which Ryan tells us about) and will host the desert duo this weekend in Berkeley.

 

We greatly appreciate Ryan joining us and are bummed we won’t be taking in Saturday’s Cal-Arizona game in his company (the people demand recruiting!).

The Table:

1:23 – Adam interupts to admit he can’t say “technologically”

1:40 – THE BIG REVEAL! Who WANE’s first guest is

2:22 – Spencer uses the term “beneath dead”, and then pics out his favorite “beneath dead” google image result to illustrate his words.

3:01 – ATTACKED BY SOMETHING!

4:18 – A discussion of the Sun Devils? A discussion of the Sun Devils.

5:30 – “Terror Alert Cardinal and Navy” means drop everything, evacuate your current whereabouts and head towards the closest cats team.

5:50 – Zack Clark show referenced…!

6:35 – BearTerritory.net referenced

7:00 – Spencer says, “damn it’s tasty!” with regards to the UCLA @ Oregon game. And then we talk about it for awhile. GotW and Something to Prove.

9:45 –  Adam starts a transition into Utah @ Colorado but we get disrupted by narcism and talk about ourselves and how WANE is more important than Gameday in Boulder. We eventually get to discussing the Utah and Colorado basketball game by 10:46.

11:00 – Spencer’s argument indicates he thinks Utah is squarely on the bubble. We are not experts.
12:10 – Here is visual proof that you can scheduling cupcake time without necessarily eating them.

13:49 – Adam drops off and screws up BEARTERRITORY.NET. For shame.

14:41 – RYAN! RYAN! RYAN! RYAN! RYAN! RYAN! RYAN! RYAN! RYAN! RYAN! Twitter follow: @RGBearTerritory

14:47 – Ryan on what happened to Cal in getting swept out of Los Angeles. And how it’s all a big wear-and-tear on Justin Cobbs. Also how Richard Solomon never really got things going against the Wears. Yes, those guys.

17:16 – A Monty team not playing defense? Ryan agrees with Spencer’s observations that hard defense didn’t travel to LA. Also that Jabari Bird is getting his legs back, the Bears are a little thin and that takes a toll on tough D. And rolling pups out there to guard isn’t the most reliable.

19:53 – If you haven’t heard of Jahii Carson, you should. Cobbs will guard that shifty scorer.

21:55 – Spencer asks about Corey Matthews’ (doh, Jordan Matthews) rise, which Gorcey quickly points out is silly as Boy Meets World stopped airing in 2000, further asserting Gorcey as an expert. In everything.

24:32 – Cats talk ensues!

26:28 – Local boy, Spencer, pumps his original court, Haas. Ryan kind of poopoos it. But Haas will be loud Saturday.

28:04 – The on-going prospects of Cal’s season and some end-o-year thoughts from Ryan.

29:20 – Touché, Mike Montgomery
31:20 – What does Cal need to do down the stretch to fell comfortable on Selection Sunday?
Thanks, Ryan!

 

 

 

Week 3 Pac-12 Hoops Review

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It was a tough weekend for the Huskies, not necessarily Seattle, but I might have found an answer to the Huskies’ front court woes. Below, pictured on the left, is a seven foot post with 360-range and a max speed of 12.5mph. Even two years of eligibility remaining. He could remedy some Dawg issues:

photo-15Indeed, that is what I spent my Saturday doing at my dad’s request and bless his heart he enjoyed every second of that Segway tour through Golden Gate Park. I didn’t necessarily want to go – and he’d be quick to tell you I fought it – but in the end I enjoyed myself. In being convinced to go, I was as defenseless as the Oregon Ducks to his paternal request. And so I rode through that park in single filed glory on the warmest day of 2014 and thus the most crowded day in GG Park. But the Segway is interesting. It’s built to be balanced. You can’t move too far forward or too far back. You can’t rock the proverbial boat as she only leans left and right. She won’t let you go too fast but also won’t ever let you be completely still. She’s ultimately engineered to move forward. And forward we shall.

Leader in the Clubhouse: Once again we could easily call this one to the number one team in the AP, Coaches, Sagarin, KenPom, and Titus rankings. But the Arizona Wildcats are best suited to just being good and not wildly discussed. I could be wrong (I am just look at the text logs between me and everyone I grew up with). So the California Golden Bears will be our clubhouse leader. They’re hotter than a [insert simile]. That aforementioned balance? They’ve got it. Yeah, they’re like a damn Segway those Cal Bears, balanced and moving forward. They’ve got seven players with a greater than 19% shot percentage. No other Pac-12 team has more than four. Everyone’s getting theirs and they’re riding that to a 5-0 conference record with an average margin of victory of lots (14.4 points). I wrote about Richard Solomon last week and could write similarly about Justin Cobbs. This team might not wow you that much (Segway) but they’re going to keep moving forward. Shout out here to the Utah Utes – home sweep – but 3-3 just won’t cut it for a clubhouse leader.

Biggest Loser: It’d be easy to say that the team I noted as having the most to lose this weekend (the Washington Huskies) is our biggest loser. After all they lost both their games and put up what seemed to be little fight. The Huskies certainly came back down to earth and indeed lost the sweet momentum they’d previously gained. But in my estimation it’s hard to call anyone but the Oregon Ducks the biggest losers this weekend. They’ve dropped four straight in conference and continue to yield well more than a point per possession in each of those losses. If their offense isn’t going to carry them through, they’ll need some stops. WHO’S GOING TO DO IT? On the Segway, while momentum will drive you forward, there’s a built in mechanism to force your weight backward, the emergency stop. Sure we’ve used the analogy of forward movement as a good thing to this point but sometimes we move forward and it’s only because that’s the direction of our momentum. Right now, Oregon needs the emergency mechanism. Yes, emergency is a big word but something must kick in to break this negative momentum.

What We Learned: A lot about the toughness of Askia Booker. I needed a place to effuse about this kid and what he’s done in the wake of Spencer Dinwiddie’s injury. He’s been a lightning bolt of criticism and I’ve defended him all over the place. In that linked piece I said, “He’s the hero Colorado deserves and the hero it needs right now.” Those words hold truer than ever as he assumes a whole new roll in Boulder. So how’d he fair in his first weekend as the man? Against UCLA he dropped 21 points on 7-11 shooting. In a word: efficient. Then, against USC he goes for 13 points on 3-5 shooting and takes 6 free throws. In a word: Dinwiddie-esque. And that’s with me neglecting to mention he assisted a season-high six assists. The hero they need.

In Defense Of: Me! Actually I can’t really do it. This is moderately inexcusable. Indefensible, really, which is to say Oregonian:

Brutal, Adam. I mean, that call was almost as bad as taking a Segway tour (love ya, pops!).

YouTuber: Just one person on our tour did anything remotely close to this and I’m proud to say it was neither me nor Pops.

WANE: The Mayor Takes Leave

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Spencer and I rekindled WANE and – on the air – declare to record weekly. In this return episode, we talk a lot about Colorado as their bad news filled the news cycles and why Josh Scott needs all the touches. Spencer (not Dinwiddie) discusses his love for the now blown-out-by-Cal-Huskies and we probably get some statistics wrong. There’s an awkward pause in there for effect; not for lack of organization. It’s worth a listen because it’s great. I diatribe briefly about Utah. Seriously amazing stuff.

 

Now that you’ve maybe clicked on the audio I’ll apologize for two things:

  1. We recorded during/before Wednesday’s games
  2. Not enough time – technical difficulties – to post this AND get you a sweet chronological table of contents. My bad

Cal Doing Big things with Improved Richard

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The Golden Bears of Cal have jumped out to a 4-0 conference record. Three of those wins are on the road and I love road victories. I also love getting swept up in momentum and the promise of what could be despite a slight sample set. Hey, getting lost in the moment is part of being a fan. Beautiful, right?

But there might be something bigger than just a moment or momentum to what these Bears are doing. It might be worth thinking about it because:

Alas, we could have a full conversation about Gottlieb but that not the point although I think he did have a point with regards to their team.

I love Cal’s lineup and I said as much in October. Veterans, youth, big, small, shooters, bangers, these Bears have pieces that can do some of everything. The only question was would they show up? Namely, would Richard Solomon please stand up? He has.

Solomon has the eighth highest DR% in the nation – an increase of more than eight percentage points from last season. He’s improved his eFG% by more than 20% (48.1% to 58%). And he’s decreased the number of fouls he commits extrapolated across 40 minutes by 27% (5.2 down to 3.8). As I’ve said before, the immediacy of graduation can be a confidence stimulator.

And if tempo-free isn’t your thing, Solomon is averaging a double-double each night on the court (12/10) which naturally are both career-highs. And speaking of double-doubles, he’s recorded six of them this season. In 79 career games prior to this year’s 15 games, he recorded just two. To pile on, he’s doubled the number of basketballs he steals per game.

I also see it as no coincidence that amongst Cal’s four losses, Solomon didn’t play in two of them and in the other two he posted his worst and third worst ORtg games. Did I mention he’s improved his ORtg by 8%? Dick Solo is doing work.

Richard Solomon Tommy BoyFurthermore, if you’ve paid attention to the blog, you’d know I have something of a crush on hoop-math.com. It’s where I got to learn about things like:

  • Does [player] really hit that many jumpers?
  • What does “protecting the rim” really mean?
  • Where do babies come from?
  • How does [team] beat [team]? Or vice versa?
  • How do I appear as cool as Bond, popular as Gosling, and get JLaw’s attention?

Very important site that allows me to create awesome charts that my friend Jamie hates and others seem to like (tangent). What I mostly love about hoop-math is that it allows us to understand the obvious. More succinctly, it confirms our hypotheses that things like “taking more shots at the rim will increase your offensive efficiency.” Which is indeed a theory of mine and one of the first things I check when examining a player or team’s improvement or otherwise.

Well to this point we’ve discussed the gross improvement of a certain Cal Golden Center to which I present Exhibit Solomon:

Richard SolomonFirst, and to be honest, I’m still refining my Excel game so bear with me as our X-axis is devoid context (it’s last three seasons). Secondly, notice the correlation between Solomon’s shots at the rim (yellow) and that same season’s ORtg (navy). When he’s around the basket he’s more effective. Solomon is putting up the highest offensive rating of his career (apologies that hoop-math doesn’t go beyond the 2011-12 season) while putting up the most shots he’s ever taken at the rim.

Richard Solomon was going to be a big reason Cal did whatever they were going to do this season.

And thus far he’s been big.

 

 

Week 2 Pac-12 Hoops Review

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I had a joke all lined up. I subtle jab to get our review going and remind everyone it’s just sports. But then Spencer Dinwiddie’s knee moved in a manner that would break his heart – and ours – and I didn’t feel like joking anymore. Because on the tail end of that bench, in Spencer’s red eyes, was a tragic reminder of why this is our favorite game. Sure basketball is grand but the collegiate version calls to us because we know what we have is brief – four years at best – and then it’s over. On to the next crop of kids wearing familiar colors and left to tell tales of the old days with delusions of grandeur. So when that brevity is cut further short by the body’s failures – sudden and unforgiving – it sucks. We selfishly lose out on the joy of watching our team be the best version of itself in their tiny window for success in that iteration. And then there’s the kid. The one who’d worked his ass off to get into the school, to get into the lineup, to get into the lore of this sport. The one with a mom. Maybe it is just sports but that’s not what breaks your heart about Dinwiddie’s tumble. It’s not that we won’t see him jump, pass, or shoot. It’s that he doesn’t get to.

Leader in the Clubhouse: Arizona remains the number one team in the nation and unblemished on their record. They are the definitive leader. But let’s talk about someone else this week namely the California Golden Bears. Here’s a team everyone except Doug Gottlieb has slept on and perhaps rightfully so. They then lose Jabari Bird and Ricky Kreklow heading into conference play where their first three games are on the road. So naturally they win all three of them. They are tres-and-oh and Justin Cobbs is the man. He’s scoring 19.3 conference points per game, grabbing 4.6 conference boards, and assisting on 8.3 conference baskets for his teammates. And one of those teammates is Richard Solomon who is playing like a man possessed by his seniority. This is his last hurrah and so he’s grabbing all of the rebounds (8th best DR%) and making all of the baskets (56.2% eFG up from 48.1% last year). In case basketball is new to you, when you have a point guard and a center playing well, you have a recipe for success. And Mike Montgomery has a degree from Hogwarts.

Biggest Loser: You can’t drop home games. I mean you can, it’s competition and so anything can happen but if you’re trying to win things like the conference you can’t lose at home. And winning on the road is really important because it’s really hard. Those red letters on the left link to an article I wrote about this very subject. We judge teams based on where they win or lose. I’m judging Oregon. They have not defended their homecourt or anyone for that matter. The points per possession they’ve given up in conference: .89, 1.28, 1.19, 1.21. They have little problems getting the buckets (7th best offense per ORtg) but if they’re going to be taken seriously on a national if not conference level, they’re going to have to start getting some stops.

What We Learned: Well not a whole lot more about Stanford who split their Oregon trip the way few teams will (lose in Corvallis, win in Eugene). Of course if this team’s season long improvement play (what they were going to do differently this year vs. last as told to me by Johnny Dawkins) was to think about the year differently, I’m curious what’s on their mind. They’ve started conference play 1-2 for the second straight year and have almost an identical 15 game record as last season (10-5 now vs. 9-6 then). Not so different as their ORtg and DRtg are also almost identical to the past, too. They’d also mentioned being mentally tougher (part of thinking differently) and thus winning close games. Well that’s kinda working as they squeaked out wins by 2 points at each of UConn and Oregon. Maybe we start a new segment in here that’s just called WHAT DOES THE STANFORD SAY? and then I just write or link to whatever I want and it’s wildly unpredictable and completely upsetting but you’re attracted to that instability by some unintelligible force that keeps telling you that they’ll change. Did I just describe my ex-girlfriend?

In Defense Of: I’ve been all over Utah lately and how interesting what they’re doing has been. What have they done? Well lost 3 of 4 conference games. That doesn’t sound all that interesting but perhaps lost amongst the excitement of their 11-1 start and their thrilling loss to Oregon is that the Utes never really were there. That’s to see, I wasn’t annointing them title contenders or March dancers but rather noting their marked improvement, their progress and the promise of what could be. They’re definitively not there yet. But like previously noted, winning on the road is difficult. Utah took to Oregon and left with two black eyes. But their eyes are blackened because they were in a fight, not because they got their asses whooped. They’ve now lost by a combined seven points and have held a second half lead in every one of their conference games. There’s a measurement on KenPom that looks at luck because sometimes you can’t win them all. I wrote about it with regards to Utah last year. Basically, the Utes are the 345th unluckiest team in the nation right now (see: Dotson, Damyean). They’re 1-3 but that doesn’t yet mean they’re bad. Utes, defended.

The YouTuber: Have you ever seen so much in 82 seconds?

 

Fourteen Things to Watch in Pac-12 Conference Play

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Conference play will tip tonight. That’s a fun fact to let sink and now’s a good time to let your loved ones know that Thursdays and Saturdays are booked (and the occasional Wednesday. And the occasional Friday. And the occasional Sunday. And all of March). I love conference play because it means something. A “good win” doesn’t just carry a nice perception, it moves you up the ladder. And we know that college basketball is all about getting to the top of ladders. With scissors.

Fourteen things to watch in this 2014 Pac-12 season:

  1. The Games and Stories – An elementary opening point for a ‘must watch’ list, but as we head into this most anticipated of Pac-12 conference seasons, I am acutely aware that I don’t want to watch Southern University play a ton of games. I’m not that stoked on seeing Arkansas-Pine Bluff, Weber State, or Evergreen State (St. Katherine, for that matter). And I mean no offense. I just don’t know them from Adam and I want the drama. I don’t care if UW and WSU rate outside the top-100 on KenPom. That’s the damn Apple Cup. USC is the 4th worst team remaining on UCLA’s schedule. BUT THEY’RE THE ONLY SCHOOL YAPPING AT UCLA. Suddenly we’re privy to subtext that wasn’t there when the opponents were [Directional] State Tech. Arizona is the top team, but Spencer Dinwiddie has already said he thinks his team is the cream of the crop. I have running bets about Arizona V. Oregon and I love the Arizona-Washington rivalry. Last time Cal and Stanford faced off, STANFORD’S ENTIRE ASSISTANT COACHING STAFF WAS EJECTED. Prior to last season, there hadn’t been an in-conference matchup of ranked teams since 2011. This year we’ve already got one in the first week (#10 Oregon @ #20 Colorado)…with more to follow! It’s conference time.
  2. Ben Carter – He has just three games under his belt (flipping shoe swag) and really just one of consequence. In that game – against BYU – he managed 4 points, 4 boards, 3 assists. Not quite Arsalan Kazemi yet not even close, either. But he’s long been considered a budding piece of what Dana Altman is trying to accomplish. And now’s the time. From a personnel standpoint, the Ducks can’t quite hit the boards the way they used to. Or rather, the way Tony Woods and Kazemi did. They’ve shifted from a top 10 defense to a top 10 offense. The best offensive team Dana Altman has ever coached. As we move forward, the emergence of a Robin to Mike Moser’s Batman could greatly benefit the Ducks.
  3. DaVonte Lacy – There aren’t going to be many reasons to watch Washington State so I present this guy:
  4. Washington’s Front Court… amongst so many other things in Seattle – Maybe there isn’t much to watch here as this team has become decimated through recruiting failures and injury (RIP Jernard Jarreau). Perris Blackwell is a fine player, but he’s one man. This is Romar’s worst defensive team since – well it’s literally the worst defense he’s ever coached. They rank 287th in defensive efficiency giving up 1.09 points per possession. Woof. Teams are shooting a 54% eFG against them, otherwise known as 318th best nationally. Double Woof. And that front court that doesn’t necessarily exist? Allowing 70% shooting at the rim. Teams are shooting 56% from 2-point range and I could go on but I won’t because as the Dawgs allow more and more points it raises more and more questions I don’t want to discuss about the health of Husky Hoops. So why watch? Because it could be something of a last hoorah.
  5. Oregon’s SOS – It has to improve. Or perhaps better said: it’s going to. They’ll play all of Arizona (State and the good guys) and UCLA twice while only escaping a visit from Colorado. Amongst KenPom’s top-25 teams, the Ducks have the 5th easiest schedule. Completely to their credit, they’ve handled that schedule. But as the going gets tough we’ll get to see whether or not this team will Win the Day.
  6. Cal’s Injury Bug – First they dropped two tough games without Richard Solomon in the lineup at the Maui Invitational. Then Kreklow and Bird sustained injuries and it’s pretty wide open as to when either of these two is coming back. You don’t need me to tell you that’s not good. I love Bird’s skill set and he carried the Bears through a few games earlier this year. They’ll now rely even more heavily on seniors Cobbs and Solomon as well as soph Ty Wallace and junior David Kravish. That’s a nice foursome, but nothing close to what this team is with Ricky and Jabari. Will their absence cost the Bears a chance to dance?
  7. The POY Race – I wrote really early in the year about this because why not? This is going to shake out to be a really great race because there are so many players that will be worthy of the title for so many different reasons. From Joseph Young who gets points like a Fuel Band to Kyle Anderson who does everything like a Swiss Knife,  how will voters (Pac-12 coaches) evaluate? Value (Nick Johnson, Anderson, Delon Wright, Mike Moser)? Skill (Young, Jahii Carson, Jordan Adams)? Whatever the case, it’s not going to be Jorge Gutierrez.
  8. Arizona’s Depth – Or lack thereof. They’re a damn talented team who then ranks 312th in percentage of bench minutes. The Pac-12 season is a grind and getting into the Yorks, Pitts’, and Korcheks of this lineup could help alleviate some of stress on the core-six. But it’s a really good core-six. One thing I’ve long been interested in – ever since he started the first game of the year – is the development of Gabe York. He wasn’t expected to be getting much tick – his defense a liability and a thorn in Miller’s side. But he’s shown some ability to defend but it’s his shooting ability (42% 3FG%) that I believe could make Arizona the hands down favorite to win this whole damn thing. But he’s not quite there yet. Conference play will be his chance to cut his teeth in some big games.
  9. Hot Seats – I hate this topic but it’s going to come up and as a given team maybe does worse than we might expect, there could be some seats warming up all over the conference. The influx of coaching talent across both football and basketball in the past 3 years has been impressive and if you’re not keeping up with the Joneses then you’re just losing sporting events. There are going to be a few ADs with tough decisions in the coming months. You already know which ones they are and so do they.
  10. Dunks –
  11. Delon Wright and the Scorin’ Utes – Larry K’s team has exceeded the 120-point mark twice this season and they’re third in the nation in points per game (87.4). They’ve also played nothing short of a middle school schedule but that’s a whole different topic. Delon Wright has been an incredible addition to this team. He’s doing almost everything for them: 15/7/6, 138.3 ORtg. The obvious here is that I’m intrigued to see how he fairs against better competition; which begins tonight as he and the Utes host #10 Oregon and all of the guard talent in the world. The other thing to note about Utah here is that they have the fifth highest eFG% in the nation. Again, the schedule stuff, but at a certain point we have to appreciate that what Larry K’s team is doing is simply efficient. Excited to see how it translates. They’re 11-1.
  12. Jahii Carson – Because he’s Jahii Carson.
  13. #20 Colorado – The lede here is that they’re ranked and Tad’s making a name of this program and Spencer Dinwiddie is likely league-bound and then something else about Askia Booker putting up shots like a Tri-Delt. It’s all true. But let’s take a moment to think about Josh “Jelly” Scott as we head to conference play. The guard play in this conference is obscene. The Arizona bigs have been getting their love but how about Scott? Here are his numbers in Colorado’s last four games: 15 points and 11 boards. That’s a lot of everything you’d want from your big. He takes just 7 shots per game to get his points, which is grossly efficient. And this is the point in the blurb that I mention his free throw rate: 88.2. That’s a 147% increase over last season’s FTRate. He’s drawing greater than 6 fouls per forty minutes. Once perceived as soft, he’s banging his way to the free throw line and offensive success. Such a post asset is going to bode well for the Buffs as we make our way towards March.
  14. Vegas – Things happen there that should stay there. You know this and I know this and the Vegas travel bureau markets that. Certain things should stay there including the Pac-12 tournament. This will be year two of the three year contract that I fully expect to be renewed. But I don’t expect many teams to be sticking around Vegas. What I mean is I think there’s going to be a hearty number (seven) of Pac-12 teams leaving Vegas for the big dance. I also think this Pac-12 tourney is going to be as fun as it gets. Hoops on basketball on baskethoops.

Ranking the Pac-12 front courts

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While this group doesn’t hold a candle to the collective guard talent, there are some formidable pieces. The conference has brought in solid transfer bigs and we could see a record fall in Tempe. I’ll propose the question: What is Kyle Anderson and why’d ya do it, Eric Moreland? The bigs:

  1. Arizona – Three five-stars that each bring a completely different set of skills to the table. You can push Aaron Gordon to the three and he can talk all about his desire to play there, but the fact of the matter is, the kid plays above the rim. That’s Kaleb Tarczewski big. The impending health of Zach Peters (recently cleared) offers another six-feet-and-ten-inches of unique skill set (shots).
  2. Stanford – Maybe they haven’t won much but between Dwight Powell and Josh Huestis you’ve got everything you’d want in a front court. Each has springs and can play physical. Powell can score from all over the place while Huestis is about as tough defensively as they get.
  3. UCLA – I already gave Kyle Anderson some back court love, but last season he was asked to be more of a forward and he excelled at that – averaging nearly a 9 boards/game. The Bruins already feature the Wear family who’s been formidable and while Travis is out injured right now, David is healthy again and should have an improved season from a year ago. The unknown to this group – and the piece that could make them a pretty scare team – is the improvement and conditioning of Tony Parker. It’s an unfortunate annual event that we discuss the conditioning of a Bruin big but if one of them ever gets it about them to be in shape, look out.
  4. Colorado – Josh Scott had a great first season and particularly when he had fresh legs. His output tapered some as the season dragged on but that’s what sometimes happens with freshmen. He’s now a year aged and while he lost his rebounding running mate, Xavier Johnson projects to fill in nicely at the wing-forward spot while Buffs fans are also very high on Wesley Gordon.
  5. Oregon – One of their starters was suspended but that’s not the key piece. Mike Moser has proven to be a terrific power forward. In 2011-12 he was amongst the nation’s best players. Then a year later he wasn’t. Who is Oregon getting? I’m thinking it’ll be a lot more of the former than the latter. If Ben Carter can recover from his salesmanship and produce, this group could be tough with all those guards.
  6. ASU – Depth maybe isn’t their strong suit up front but if Jordan Bachynski can replicate last season, he will be the Pac-12’s All-Time leading shot blocker. That’s saying something.
  7. Oregon State – Let’s note right up front that Eric Moreland will be out for 14 straight games. We’ll also note that he’s a very good basketball player and flirted with the NBA. The First Team also has Devon Collier and returns everyone’s second favorite Aussie, Angus Brandt. In most any other system, I think these guys might be a top-four front court. But this is a school averaging just 15 wins a year the past three seasons. Sigh.
  8. California – I’ve said it before, I like Richard Solomon. I think he could have a big year. But to this point he’s been a foul prone athlete in Cal’s paint. His services have been supplemented by a walk-on named The Thurmanator. Solomon has the skills to be great, but will he? The other big in Haas is David Kravish who has a very sound skill set, a solid big, but he’s just not that big. Front court depth will also be a Bear-issue.
  9. Washington – They lose their anchor in Aziz but they’re bringing in a very interesting piece that LoRo says has the “potential to lead the team in scoring.” That’s nice – and scary, frankly, considering CJ Wilcox is on the team – but what I like the most about the addition of Perris Blackwell is that he’s a big body who’s going to let all those guards run amuck. Between him and the Rain Man Jr. (along with Desmond Simmons), the Dawgs have a few guys to get dirty in their second attempt at the high post offense. And this.
  10. Utah – This ranking hinges squarely on the fact that Jordan Loveridge is fantastic, he’s a double-double about to happen. Maybe he’s manning the middle alone now (bye Jason Washburn), but he’s man enough to do it. Worth noting, K did mention an improved and healthy Renan Lenz.
  11. USC – I don’t think these two are well suited for Andy Enfield’s tempo but they are serviceable bigs. Omar Oraby and DJ Haley are just too big for Dunk City. This is an offense that needs to get out and move and 7’2″ and 7′ tends to be a bit rigid when it comes to the fast break.
  12. WSU – Uhhhhh. They have their full allotment of scholarship athletes?

Quincy Pondexter did it, who might this year?

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Quincy Pondexter arrived in Seattle, a five-star recruit with the promise of NBA written all over him. A program changing prospect, expectations were high. But after his first three seasons as a Husky, those seemed like empty hopes. Not to say he was a total bust, but after he came in with expectations and posted a pretty solid freshman campaign (11/4/2, 109/22), his subsequent two seasons displayed minimal improvement.

Season Pts/Rebs/Assists per game Ortg/Shot%
Freshman 11/4/2 109/22
Sophomore 10/5/2 106/22
Junior 12/6/2 112/22

Consistently sound but was this to be QPon’s ceiling? His 2007 five-star contemporaries were being drafted if not leading their teams to great places. Pondexter got to dance in 2009 but headed into 2009-10, the Dawgs didn’t have particularly high expectations for their senior.

Season Pts/Rebs/Assists per game Ortg/Shot%
Senior 19/7/2 122/26

Pac-12 tournament champions. Sweet 16. Pondexter’s monster year came in the nick of time. And that’s the beauty of college sports. Maybe there’s corruption on the recruiting side of things and a product that’s not quite professional grade, but like watching a Snap Chat, there’s something to knowing that what’s right in front of you will soon be gone. The senior is that rare position in which it’s laid on the line for one full season. There’s no next because, as the commercial says, most of them will be going professional in something other than sports (though if you have a season like Pondexter you’re probably going professional in something related to sports, namely playing them).

Quincy embodied that for a season – a relatively rare accomplishment – and I’m sure we could each recount a moment in which a senior’s gut captivated us. But there is a precedent for what QPon did. I could rattle on about Jason Terry or Kyle Fogg from my backyard. Landry Fields, Carrick Felix, Matthew Bryan-Amaning and Aaron Brooks from elsewhere. These were guys that followed similar paths as the aforementioned QPon and erupted with their NCAA clock nearing expiration.

Player Fr-Jr Averages* Senior Year Sr Year Post Season
Jason Terry** 8p 2r 3a 22p 3r 6a NCAA 3 seed. Lost 1st round***
Aaron Brooks 11p 3r 4a 102.4/20.3 18p 4r 4a 117.7/25.1 NCAA 2 seed. Lost E8
Landry Fields 7p 4r 1a 101.1/21.8 22p 9r 3a 109.6/31.2 14-18. No tournaments
Matthew Bryan-Amaning 6p 4r 1a 94.5/20.2 15p 8r 1a 112.5/24.9 NCAA 7 seed. Lost 2d round
Kyle Fogg 8p 2r 2a 106.8/17.8 14p 4r 2a 110.6/23.1 NIT
Carrick Felix 8p 3r 1a 95.1/21.8 15p 8r 2a 110.4/22.2 NIT. Lost 2d round

*These are quick and dirty averages across their first three seasons on campus
**No ORtg and %shot data available
***Utterly broke my heart to see Michael Wright mistakenly step onto the court before inbounding the ball late and sealing a first round exit for one of the greatest Wildcat seniors of all time which I watched alone in my bedroom on an antennaed TV on a Friday afternoon that somehow was a middle school half day.

And so I ask, who could do that this year? Who amongst the statesmen of the Pac-12 can embrace their impending eligibility and have a monster swan song?

John Gage, F, Stanford – This biggun was called the best shooter in the Pac-12 by Jeff Eisenberg. Not many 13mpg players get called out as being the best shooter in a conference. What’s more, Gage is a member of the senior class Dwight Powell stuck around to take care of unfinished business with. With Andy Brown unfortunately off the roster, Gage should have further chances to play that stretch forward position.

Richard Solomon, C, Cal – Another biggun making the breakout senior list, Solomon has tremendous up side that he has yet to realize. I love his athleticism and think he’s on a roster where that athleticism can flourish. He’s foul prone, sure, but if he can manage to refine his game a little, look out.

Angus Brandt, C, Oregon State – He spent last season injured and was poised to break out then. He’s now going to be relied upon even further as Eric Moreland won’t soon be joining the team.

Jermaine Marshall, G, ASU – He put up very solid numbers one season ago at Penn State (15/4/3) and then he graduated to Tempe (not from Tempe). Those are already gaudy numbers but I could see him having the opportunity to go even bigger with Jahii Carson making moves throughout the lane for this spot up shooter.

JT Terrell, G, USC – Terrell is a shooter and would likely seem to thrive in a shooting system. Exit: Kevin O’Neill. Enter: Andy Enfield. Dunk city is going to give Terrell further freedom to fire it up. He’s the top scorer returning to the Galen Center and should likely receive the lion’s share of touches.

Mike Moser, F, Oregon -This one maybe isn’t quite deserving of making this list but as compared to his previous season, Moser is poised to have another monster season. He’s in a system that doesn’t have Anthony Bennett and he’s already shown just how good he can be (2011-12 Moser was 14/10).

Somebody really cool that we barely know about who’s role is suddenly expanded or talent realized because of the fleeting nature of his time on the campus where he’s fallen in love with coaches and teammates and fans and the experience since arriving a green, 18-year-old with aspirations of t-shirts and hats – Any names come to minds?

Getting to know Cal: A balancing act

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Cal has made the most buzz in their off-season not necessarily surrounding anything they’ve done. To address what they’ve done is to tell you they’ve compiled a sound team with compelling pieces up and down the roster. They’re maybe not deep but they’re balanced. I like Cal’s roster. But that’s maybe not why you’ve heard about them. No, you might’ve heard that Dough Gottlieb of CBS-lore has picked Cal as his 10th best team in the nation. Rush the Court asked how and I’m curious, too. But ultimately, that’s Doug’s prerogative and I don’t care that much. He’s the paid contrarian and I’m not even about to mention his brother being on Cal’s staff – though I just did. So with that out of the way, we’ll focus on whether these Bears can replace Allen Crabbe, the reigning POY; if balanced is enough; whether Richard Solomon can make the jump.

Why I love them: That balance I’ve been talking about? I’m really high on it and what’s more is they’ve got veterans in the right places and particularly in the two most important. You know about Mike Montgomery so allow me to get to the point: Justin Cobbs (see what I did there?!). He’s hit big shots and played in big games. He’s a senior at the most critical position in college basketball and one cannot begrudge the Bears that. It is their most endearing quality. But one senior does not a team make. No, filling out their back court is the highly touted Jabari Bird for whom Monty has been trying to taper expectations, “I don’t want to put expectations on Jabari.  I want him to develop, I want him to learn as a freshman.  Certainly coming in with the ability he has is going to give him a great opportunity, but the expectations is that he has a great freshman year and he helps us win basketball games.” Sure, Monty’s got a fine freshmen, but one freshman does not a team make (with apologies to ‘Melo). I’m not about to carry on with the different components that alone do not make up a team, but I will tell you that I’m a big Ty Wallace fan. He had a good freshman campaign and – if my calculations from a year ago stand true – he projects to have a much improved sophomore effort. The one additional thing that’s also got me high on this team is who Richard Solomon might become. He’s athletic and lengthy and we find him in his final season at Berkeley. How is he going to handle that urgency? If he manages to channel it into continued rebounding success (high OR and DR rates) and improved offensive output (just 55th in the conference in ORtg) then the Bears would seem to have further filled out an already nice lineup.

Why I hate them: OK so I like Richard Solomon. I want to believe that he’s going to have a big senior year – a fact I plan to expand upon in a later post. But if we’re looking at this team and its front court, we’re indeed left with Solomon and David Kravish. Sound players but with the body of work we’ve previously been presented with, I’m not about to consider this a Pac-12 contending front court. They’ve lost the Thurmanator who gave them big minutes when Solomon was in foul trouble (ranked 3rd to last in fouls committed/40 minutes) and I don’t foresee Kameron Rooks or Roger Moute a Bidias soon jumping into significant roles. Cobbs, Bird, Kreklow, and Wallace are going to win this team plenty of ball games, but it’s Solomon and Kravish who could help differentiate them.

Stat you need to know:

22

Percentage and number of three pointers that Ty Wallace hit last season for the Pac-12’s worst three point shooting team. I love Ty Wallace’s game but he needs to learn that his game isn’t to be firing from deep. In fact, see Exhibit Quotable…

Quotable:


Outlook: Maybe I don’t love this Bears team but there’s plenty here to like. I’ve discussed balance. That can cause problems for people; as does a Mike Montgomery defense. The Bears have had a top 50 defense in each of the last three seasons under Monty and project to have the 29th best this year per KenPom. Speaking of which, it might be worth noting that Ken rates Cal as the fourth best Pac-12 team and 36th in the nation. A season ago they wrapped the year rated 56th OR, twenty spots lower than they currently project. By my amateur math, this would suggest that the Bears are improved despite the loss of Crabbe. But enough quantitative predictions. I think Cobbs is senior enough to Dance with help from Bird and a much improved Ty Wallace (might be my favorite player in the league). And yes, in my final sentences, I’ll acknowledge that Cobbs suffered a foot injury. I don’t think this will prove a major set back. He ain’t missin much. Look at how cool new Haas is:

Haas Floor