Category Archives: Stanford

PacHoops Two-A-Days: The Bay Schools (Cal & Stanford)

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We’re finally previewing the Pac-12. This week, the last before games actually tip, I’ll post two previews of travel mates (i.e. UW and WSU will appear in the same post) and, in the interest of being fully prepared for Friday’s hoop joy, I’ll post two-a-day. Thus the title. Although it’s 4 previews-a-day. Regardless. Enjoy. (Other school previews)

California Preview

cuonzo-martin

We’re entering year three with Cuonzo which is his average tenure. He stayed three years at Missouri State before earning a Sweet Sixteen and a ticket to Knoxville where petitions were started to oust him. The people demand Bruce Pearl! And now we’re here. He’s got an outbound lottery pick, a four-year-five-star, a Columbia grad transfer, and Marcus Lee on the bench. His athletic department has significant deficits but Cuonzo got a contract. Alas, that’s a grim outline for what’s generally viewed as a promising season. The Bears were picked to finish 4th this season and, despite my run down, all can’t be bad in Berkeley (I have friends that live there!).

Last season on “Everybody Love Cuonzo”

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2015-16 Stanford Basketball Preview: The same but the same

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Allow me to make a mountain out of a mole-scrimmage. As a rule, we shouldn’t read into scrimmages. They’re for entertainment purposes, a means to generate hype around the team, program, and season. I’m not talking about the “secret scrimmages” sealed as tight as a government drone policy. But I can’t help being shocked that in Stanford’s brief (20-minute) Cardinal vs. White scrimmage, one team managed to outscore the other by sixteen. I confess, this is nothing to be startled over. But the final score was 40-24 and it made sense but it didn’t. Like how do you evenly split your team into a blow out? Or why not pause and mix things up to allow for even play? It’s your scrimmage. Like I said, this is admittedly making a mountain out of a molehill but it just seems odd. Arizona’s Red-Blue game yielded an 8-point scoring difference, Cal’s was 3…in three overtimes. Of course Oregon State’s scrimmage was a 77-54 blowout (NOTE: the Beavers never scored 77 points in a Pac-12 game last season) so who really knows. But because the conversation of Stanford basketball has often been player development, I’m curious who’s learning from such a game? This type of competition? Of course I didn’t see the game and – by rule – we’re not to make anything of it. But this feels fittingly familiar for the least familiar Stanford team we’ve seen in awhile. Gone is the “core” that won two NIT titles and beat Kansas. Is that Stanford basketball? It might be. But this year really doesn’t project to anything “special” which at this point at Stanford is an 18-11 regular season, .500 ball in conference, and a strange post-season (but a post-season nonetheless I suppose).

Why I love them

*turn on the new Adele album to read the following sections Continue reading →

The Only Two Pac-12 Player of the Year Options

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I subscribe to the idea that it’s never too early to talk Player of the Year. This, of course, is an irrational subscription. We can’t even agree on what generally qualifies a POY. Is it the MVP? The best player on the best team? The player with the gaudiest stats? A career achievement piece? Sports is not a place for agreement.

Nevertheless, when it comes to the three-bid, underwhelming 2015 Pac-12, there will be nothing underwhelming or controversial about its Player of the Year. Because it is going to be one of the following two – highly deserving and non-Jorge Gutierrez – players:

PPG RPG APG FG% 3FG% Ortg Usage
POY1 19.8 3.1 2.7 43% 39% 114 26.90%
POY2 15 4.5 5.8 55% 22% 119 25.50%

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Eight Observations From Inside Haas Pavilion

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From inside the Haas Pavilion for Cal-Stanford, I observed things. This is what I went home thinking about after an entertaining 69-59 Cardinal win.

1) Basketball Players are Big

I laud you to finagle yourself into excellent basketball tickets. They are a dish best served free so always say ‘yes’ when offered tickets. It remains my life’s greatest regret that I adhered to a study schedule (yes, that was a component of college life for me) rather than accept the owner (owner, as in: Man who shelled out cash to make decisions) of the San Diego Padres’ tickets. Of note, I did not study and watched the entire game on television. I digress. When you’re up close for a basketball game you get to see exactly how seven feet fills up a lane. Suddenly, ‘points in the paint’ isn’t a statistic, it’s a goddamn Purple Heart. Length isn’t so much a draft component, it’s the tentacles of The Kraken.

2) Adam’s an Architect

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How Very Stanford: Navigating the Circle of Suck

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By: Spencer Smith

The Pac-12 this year is Utah, Arizona and the field. And while pretty much no one expects the other 10 programs to challenge the Utes and Wildcats for a conference crown, there is still plenty to be played for.

There’s an amoeba of mediocrity in the middle (say that five times fast), one that starts after the aforementioned front-runners and ends at a much more uncertain place. Stanford, UCLA, Colorado, Oregon, Oregon State are in there. Washington State is making a case for being in there. Washington, Cal and Arizona State are desperately trying to convince you they are still there. USC plays basketball. Continue reading →

Stanford Cardinal Basketball Preview: Chasson Margins

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I put a lot of credence in what Dan Hanner writes at RealGM. In his Pac-12 preview, he told us that Johnny Dawkins might have accumulated his best lineup yet (I kinda disagree) and that:

Dawkins actually has the worst track record of developing players on offense.

So if I’m piecing this together, then I’m noting that the Card lose two starters who were NBA draft picks including an All-Defense performer from the second best defensive team Dawkins has ever coached as well as their second leading scorer and is replacing them with two freshmen whom Dawkins will presumably struggle to teach offense? I like the roster, I’m just expecting a lot of…variance. Maybe that’s why Hanner notes that Dawkins has never finished better than 36th in scoring margin. F*cking math.

Why I Love Them:

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Cal survives. Stanford doesn’t. Games are Played.

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It’s one of my favorite and most comprehensive college basketball websites. NROPP takes a qualitative and quantitative approach to analyzing and commenting on the game and you can’t ask for much else. On the daily – or as possible – the site drops a preview of the day’s games. Here is what he had to say about Colorado and then where it got me thinking:

Pac 12: Colorado’s got some injury issues, so on paper the 7-4 conference record looks pretty good. But when you take out the altitude, the only positive is a victory over Washington State (188) that came by 1 in OT on the road. Other road losses come at Washington (112), Arizona (1), and Arizona State (34) – and all those losses were by double digits. Five of the final seven come on the road, four against top 50 teams, and the other against USC which has been playing better as of late, but doesn’t really show because they’ve played the toughest conference schedule of practically anyone in the country to date. Colorado’s in a really, really, really difficult spot moving forward.

First of all, he’s absolutely right. Colorado does have a difficult road ahead of themselves and are riding a three game home winning streak in part due to competition. I love the analysis because it factors both quantitative (their remaining schedule is five, sevenths on the road including four against top 50 teams) and the qualitative (injuries, 7-4 is inflated). I can’t and won’t make an argument against this.

But I’m a fan. Undoubtedly NROPP is a fan too but I also appreciate seeing that Colorado has overcome some demons to win their last three. You can’t tell me Colorado had seemingly every reason to roll over and die in the face of Brandon Taylor’s overtime inducing three pointer? Xavier Johnson has played at an all league level during this win streak. Have the Buffs needed every bit of it? Absolutely. But the overarching point in my estimation is that he’s done it when he had a multitude of excuses not to.

When this blurb was passed to me, I was watching the tale end of Justin Cobbs beating another team late. This time it was the Washington State Cougars who are the worst team in the Pac-12 but you know what? Cal won. Stanford didn’t. And look at the win probability graphs side by side:

win probsBoth squads had ample opportunities to accomplish the opposite result but that’s not how things manifested. Both were expected to win for the overwhelming majority of their respective games but, as stated: Cal won, Stanford didn’t.

At this time of year, in a removed-from-qualitative-and-quantitative-analysis-state, that’s all that matters. NROPP and any other smart site or person would be wise to think that beating WSU in overtime or dropping one to UW late suggests the Bay teams’ processes are flawed. Cal won but didn’t look good doing it and demonstrated further defensive ineptitude. I mean, who allows Washington State to score 1.19 ppp? Well, only Lamar who allowed the Cougs 1.20 ppp and who are 3-20 and rank 346th out of 351 teams per KenPom. That basically means the sixth worst team in the country is the only team to defend the Cougars less than Cal did on Wednesday night.

Meanwhile, Stanford managed just four points in the final 4:23 (3-9 from the field including FTs) against the Pac’s ninth best defense. They couldn’t close (Cal could) and it cost them not only a game to Washington but – more than likely – an NCAA bid. Process – as sites like NROPP, KenPom, and even PacHoops will tell you – matters. But filling the left column matters more.

We can’t really put a value on momentum. There isn’t a confidence quotient. I’m unable to muster many stats that tell you how how hard it is to beat Justin Cobbs.

So the cards may be stacked against Colorado tonight, while they conversely were stacked in Stanford’s favor. But there’s a reason we play. We play to win the game.

Gross Conclusions and 1.26 Points Per Cougar Possession

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And how much fun is this? We’re but a few days deep and now hours into a tip off marathon where I was watching hoops deep into the night and now once again peripherally at Tucson International. We have just begun and I’m making irrational snap judgments like Carrie Mathison (i.e. Gabe York:Russ Smith::Russ Smith:Gabe York; POY trophy as the Ty Wallace Cup; Joseph Young receiving an additional year’s eligibility; lodging in Arlington; instituting a coach swap where Johnny Dawkins and Craig Robinson just switch teams – like Dawk moves to Corvallis for the year and Rob to Palo Alto just to see why the hell not; replacing WSU with Coppin State). In reality, we know very little about the teams we’ve seen play but our expectations are being teased, not tempered.

To the point at which I’d like to elaborate on the Stanford Cardinal.

Against much of my better judgment (what’s that?) I’ve ignored those trying to temper my expectations of Dawkins’ squad. I’ve thought so highly of Dwight Powell and Chasson Randle for so long now that I foresaw no way in which a team led by those two could sustain back-to-back disappointing seasons. Their talents, after all, were supplemented by Josh Huestis, Aaron Bright, and a deep cast of formidable role players. They returned oodles of experience (80% of their minutes played) and isn’t experience one thing you can’t teach? The crux of the matter, however, might not be about what you can’t teach so much as whether you can teach at all.

This comes to the forefront as Stanford – a perennial top-100 defensive unit under Dawkins – yielded 112 points at home to the WCC’s Brigham Young Cougars. That’s 1.26 points per possession. Matt Carlino just scored agai — Tyler Haws, too. Oh sure the Cards dropped 100+ themselves but who damn cares? This is a major violation of early optimism. We were promised a “different way of thinking” by Coach Dawkins and crew. To which I ask: What are you guys thinking?

Watching the latter parts of that BYU thing, Seth Greenberg yelled on and on about how Stanford had many nice pieces – the same toys I’ve mentioned above. He’d then, inevitably, arrive at his caveat (of which I paraphrase), “But Stanford has really got to find its identity. What kind of team are they going to be?” Indeed what the hell type of team are they going to be because they could be so good. Or can they?

This was one man’s proposal to which I can’t completely disagree. A 19-15 (9-9) season is being fixed by thinking differently?

It might be time for me to start thinking differently about Stanford.

Getting to know Stanford: Same but different?

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Obviously in the words below I’ll dive into these Cardinal but I’d like to begin with Maples Pavilion. I grew up watching the backboards sway and the floors bounce. We’d turn down the TV volume as Arthur Lee’s Cardinal became Jason Terry’s daddy. We’ve seen Tiger act-a-fan court side (hated it but appreciated it). It’s an intimate venue and an easy place to catch a game. It should be every bit of the 3.5 point home court advantage and then some. Currently, however, it is not. The team hasn’t won at Monty levels in awhile and hasn’t been subsequently supported. It’s a shame because – living in the Bay Area – I want to see some rowdy. Do I really have to head to USF for Gonzaga’s visit?

Why I love them: Dwight Powell, Josh Huestis, Anthony Brown, Stefan Nastic, John Gage, and Aaron Bright. That was Johnny Dawkins’ 2010 recruiting class and every single one of them is on this team. “There’s unfinished business,” Dwight Powell says. You’re darn right there is and that’s coming out of a senior who just may be feeling the urgency of his imminent graduation. But boy do I love seniors and boy do I love seniors that are supported by a junior, Chasson Randle. This team has talent at every position and has the quintessential PG to run a Stanford basketball team. Then there’s the whole do-it-for-Andy storyline where these guys have a teammate, Andy Brown, who will be sorely missed from this team. This off-season he suffered his fourth ACL tear, ending his Cardinal career. He’s no longer on the team but promises to be he’ll continue to be a part of the team. Powerful stuff.

Why I hate them: They ain’t done shit! As stated, this is one helluva crew and I love their makeup and the things they appear to be capable of. But that aforementioned senior class is just 26-28 in Pac-12 play with two NIT appearances (I will begrudge them a 2012 NIT championship  but will also note they closed their season 5-8 to “earn” that un-invitational). College basketball is a dance recital and the Cards haven’t been dancing. Not since 2008 when there were two guys who looked alike who you might’ve heard of (Hi, Brook! Hi, Robin!). Maybe that’s why they signed Marcus and Malcolm Allen? No, shared DNA ain’t fixing this. And I’m not entirely sure I’m buying what Johnny Dawkins and Powell were telling us about what’s different for this team, “We’re thinking differently.” What does that even mean? The team did go through NAVY Seal training (see below) and have tested and pushed themselves in ways they supposedly have not before. I applaud that. I understand and appreciate culture shifts. I actually talked to a close friend who is a Red Sox fan about John Farrell’s work in Boston. He’s taken a dumpster fire and last place team with seven free agents to the World Series and baseball’s best record. Shifts are possible. But that also included a leadership change and that’s a path I never like to head down. I’m selling the “change of thinking” thing and buying – speculatively – the urgency of seniority.

Stat you need to know:

88%

That is the usage percentage returning to Maples this season. Compare that to the next most in Pac-12: Colorado’s 69%. Frankly, I’ve already gone in on this whole what-will-they-do-with-all-that-returning-skill thing so I’ll just say remind you they’re returning a 9-9 team.

In their words: My man, @kevo408, calls D-League hoops for the Santa Cruz Warriors, is all over the Pac-12 Post, and attended this here Stanford spot. Thanks, Danna Man.

Marcus is the scorer and Malcolm the passer from what I recall. Marcus is certainly more highly touted but I’m not sure they’ll be the major factors. It’s really a do-or-die year for the Card. They’re going to be tested early with Bucknell, BYU, Northwestern, a trip to Denver and UCONN. They’ll take on Beilein’s Wolverines in Brooklyn and could draw Pitt there as well in the Legends Classic. They haven’t proven yet they can close a team out. I can’t count the number of ways these guys lost games last year: Powell missing a DUNK down two at USC; Powell not knowing the clock and making the game tying layup after the buzzer; Randle fouling beyond mid-court with less than a second left in a tie ball game. Do they haveit? I don’t know. But I want to see them in the Dance.

Quotable:

“”I just want to thank all of my teammates.”
– Andy Brown

Outlook: I want desperately to say I like this team’s prospects but they return that 9-9 team that underwhelmed me season long (except when I saw them demolish Oregon). Have I mentioned that? Everyone else across the conference is rolling out rosters that  make the Cardinal an afterthought. I keep thinking about them and I can’t imagine three guys named Allen (Marcus, Malcolm, and Rosco) making a tournament changing impact. Which means that if we’re going to believe in these Cardinal, well we have to believe something different; the same approach Dawkins and team are taking. I’m all for mental fortitude I just don’t know if you can force it. I’ve seen my fair share of players asked to be leaders and get handed the How to Lead for Dummies book. That usually turns into a disingenuous, untrusted teammate. These aren’t bad guys. Just guys who are asked to be something they’re not (perhaps reference: Lyons, Mark). But I’ll tell you what, if any school was going to be clever enough to figure this stuff out…

A video:

On Last Night’s Stanford-Cal Game. And Beyond

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I don’t know if you were at the game and so if you were we’re tied in the following category. But my guess is that if you weren’t, I now have a new “Never Have I Ever” trump card.

Never have I ever seen an entire assistant coaching staff ejected.

Because that happened in Haas Wednesday night following the “Brawl in Berkeley” (that’s what people are calling it, right?). I mean, Mark Madsen got tossed. And what a ridiculous rule that only the HC can leave the bench to break up a fight. Whatever.

I kinda loved it.

But not that much. I won’t condone fighting, it’s pretty bush league, but I sure as hell love a rivalry game. I’ll always reference the “anything can happen” factor and it most certainly can. Cal was a 6 point favorite at home. They lost by 12.

When the dust settled from the scuffle and we watched the most tense final five minutes of a blowout I may have ever seen; and after Allen Crabbe tried his best at a mega comeback (assisting and scoring a swift 8 points post delay); and following Ricky Krekow going full Rudy for three of those minutes trying to get his entire lost season’s worth of physical contact in; indeed, after all of that the only thing Spencer and I could discuss was how could we get these two to play in Vegas.

As it were today, we’re going to need some help. Arizona will have to beat ASU and Washington must beat…OK well it’s impossible at this point but it stands that I want Arizona to beat ASU (handily). Write that down.

But there is one way in which this occurs (I’m telling you there’s a chance). Each of UCLA and Oregon lose-out and Arizona triumphs over ASU causing a four way tie for first and Stanford (currently sitting in ninth) stays where they are (I don’t believe they can move much beyond eighth). They’ll then need to win their first round game and – voila! – we have a Thursday Big Game!

Note: There is the obvious situation in which these two meet in the semis or finals but I want spice early and often which explains my hope for a Thursday meeting. Also, after scouring the standings and tiebreakers, this:

 

But the overarching point here isn’t a commentary on fighting or even rivalries for that matter.

It’s the ubiquitous fact that March is magnifying and tense and highlights everything we love about sport. It’s the lone time in our lives in which we encourage drama. For this fact, it makes total sense to put this thing in Vegas because if there was ever a place for drama to stay, it’s Vegas.

Last night we saw the 12th place team handle the 1st place team. We watched the ninth place team complete the convincing sweep of the third place team. And there is still a chance of that four-way tie for first in which case hell wouldn’t freeze, it’d just get hotter.

One week out. BRING ON THE DRAMA.

And maybe let’s party with Mark Madsen.