Tag Archives: Ben Carter

On the Oregon Ducks’ Lack of Defense

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For some time now I’ve speculated about the Oregon Ducks’ defense. I’ve had my concerns about it but I was having a difficult time picking on a team that was 13-0. I also couldn’t pinpoint the issue. If any at all. Perhaps I need to up my criticism game? But since winning their lucky thirteenth, the Ducks have stopped exactly no one from scoring.

Without the advantage of having watched a ton of Oregon basketball and with the advantages of having a social life and a highly analytical mind (which behooves me in sports and torments me in dating), I’ve come to the following conclusion about Oregon’s defense: they’re the perfect storm of bad. I’ll explain.

On Dana Altman’s roster, there are just a shade under two million guards. Loyd, Artis, Joseph, Calliste, and Dotson make up one of the most formidable back courts I’ve ever heard of. Offensively that is. Otherwise they’re a group contributing to the nation’s 152nd best defense. My assumption has been that the guards aren’t carrying their weight considering four of their top five players in terms of %min are guards. So I don’t think they’ve done their light front court any favors.

I’ll begin anecdotally and tell you that, certainly in their conference games, this perimeter group hasn’t done much to limit dribble penetration. It’s what my Buffalo friends told me. My Cal friends told me it had to do with an inability to protect the paint. Even my Oregon compatriots confirmed.

Porous perimeter defense theory confirmed anecdotally? Check.

Jim-Halpert-Sarcastic-Fist-PumpBut anecdotal tales of a perimeter defense lost at sea aren’t going to cut it here. This is PacHoops and while I talk to some of the most brilliant and trusted minds in Conference of Champion theory – seriously, my g-chat windows are to Pac-12 thought what Cafe Trieste was to the Beatniks – we need more than perception. This is some Ginsberg, Kerouac shit.

Let me begin by saying we’re going to go ahead and agree and assume that Oregon’s front court is already not the best defensively. They’re undersized and undermanned with Mike Moser (6’8″) and Richard Amardi (6’8″) getting the lion’s share of big man tick. Size doesn’t dictate defensive prowess but sometimes being the 11th worst defensive rebounding team in the conference (and 230th worst in the nation) while combining to commit more than 11 fouls per forty minutes can support that assumption. Ben Carter was expected to have a bit more impact but he sold his shoes and so he’s just now getting to lace them back up. Let’s move on.

Here is what Oregon’s defense breaks down to:

Oregon's DI’ll get this started with the jump shooting defenses and leave the rim stuff for later. The rim stuff is my favorite so we’ll call it dessert. The shooting D is slightly below average. The yellow indicates they allow an average amount of twos and threes as well as an average 3FG% against (158). That’s fine. Average defense masked by a superior offense can get things done. But that’s only on threes which is generally not the most exciting defense to discuss because, as KenPom explains, sometimes taking a three is like playing the lottery. Thus, three point defense becomes an interesting point of defensive philosophy. For the Ducks it seems to be a shot they’ll let opponents take a comfortable amount of, letting them gamble a little but not a lot.

So with regards to my porous perimeter theory, I’m left to see that against that very average number of two-point jumpers, teams are hitting a very un-average percentage of them. Opponents are shooting 37.3% in the two-point jumper range and that ranks 251st in ‘Murica. To me, and in an effort to support my theory, this suggests that the already undersized and undermanned front court is being confronted with the defensive challenge of stopping dribbling guards. To stop the same guys who’ve just blown past a Duck guard and who are now able to do one of two things:

  1. Hit a relatively uncontested two point jumper that teams are doing at a relatively high level, OR
  2. Getting to the rim!

Oregon is allowing 39% of shots against them to come at the rim which ranks 205th in the nation and 11th in the Pac-12. Now this doesn’t necessarily mean they do a poor job of defending the rim so we can cite their opponents’ FG% at the rim. This is 59.1%, 186th in the nation and 9th in the conference. Those powers combined – high percentage of shots at the rim and high percentage being made – and you have the perfect storm of bad defense. Penetration leads to easy jumpers or a shot at the rim.

Furthermore – and this might be the toughest part of it all – the Ducks are allowing the 226th highest free throw rate in the nation meaning – and this is a very loose description – opponents are getting to the line on about 43.1% of their possessions. This of course isn’t taking into account all of the factors that define a game’s possessions but it’s how I’ve chosen to explain FT rate in this context. It gives us an idea not a fact, chill out.

But why it further contributes to this poor Duck defense is that Oregon is playing with the 18th most possessions per game in the nation. Ipso facto, Duck opponents are getting more possessions too and if they’re getting fouled on those – or easily to the rim – then they’re going to score more points. More points = bad defense.

Porous perimeter defense theory confirmed quantifiably ? Meh.

Halpert ShrugDefense is so difficult to quantify and it’s really tough to pinpoint a single weakness without watching all of their games, breaking down tape. I’m not going to watch all of their games. And I won’t soon tell you Oregon is a good defensive team. We’ve gone pretty extensively into a few reasons why they struggle. Areas in which they can and need to improve.

I can say that Oregon is an average defensive team. Their defensive efficiency ranks just a few tenths of a point above average (103.3 vs. 104.1) and prior to entering Pac-12 play, Oregon had played a very average schedule. Their non-conference strength of schedule ranked 211th. Average opposition + average defense + elite offense = 13-0. Note that the Ducks’ three conference losses are to 3 of the 4 highest KenPom rated teams they’ve played. It’s why the Duck SOS was on my Fourteen Things to Watch list (#5).

This isn’t a Duck death certificate. As good friend and Duck fan Matt told me, “Altman’s defense is a process, not a formula.” I love this concept and believe he’s right. There were going to be growing pains with such turnover and Altman should be applauded for what he’s done. A season ago he was coaching a top-10 defense and a season later he’s coaching a top-10 offense. He’s done both successfully. Their current slide perhaps supports the adage that defense wins championships. The Ducks, after all, did win the 2013 Pac-12 Tournament.

The best part about defense, however, is it can often be a simple test of fortitude. Sometimes you can just choose to be a better defender. With Arsalan Kazemi not soon to walk into Matt Knight, I wonder what direction these Ducks will take?

Fourteen Things to Watch in Pac-12 Conference Play

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Conference play will tip tonight. That’s a fun fact to let sink and now’s a good time to let your loved ones know that Thursdays and Saturdays are booked (and the occasional Wednesday. And the occasional Friday. And the occasional Sunday. And all of March). I love conference play because it means something. A “good win” doesn’t just carry a nice perception, it moves you up the ladder. And we know that college basketball is all about getting to the top of ladders. With scissors.

Fourteen things to watch in this 2014 Pac-12 season:

  1. The Games and Stories – An elementary opening point for a ‘must watch’ list, but as we head into this most anticipated of Pac-12 conference seasons, I am acutely aware that I don’t want to watch Southern University play a ton of games. I’m not that stoked on seeing Arkansas-Pine Bluff, Weber State, or Evergreen State (St. Katherine, for that matter). And I mean no offense. I just don’t know them from Adam and I want the drama. I don’t care if UW and WSU rate outside the top-100 on KenPom. That’s the damn Apple Cup. USC is the 4th worst team remaining on UCLA’s schedule. BUT THEY’RE THE ONLY SCHOOL YAPPING AT UCLA. Suddenly we’re privy to subtext that wasn’t there when the opponents were [Directional] State Tech. Arizona is the top team, but Spencer Dinwiddie has already said he thinks his team is the cream of the crop. I have running bets about Arizona V. Oregon and I love the Arizona-Washington rivalry. Last time Cal and Stanford faced off, STANFORD’S ENTIRE ASSISTANT COACHING STAFF WAS EJECTED. Prior to last season, there hadn’t been an in-conference matchup of ranked teams since 2011. This year we’ve already got one in the first week (#10 Oregon @ #20 Colorado)…with more to follow! It’s conference time.
  2. Ben Carter – He has just three games under his belt (flipping shoe swag) and really just one of consequence. In that game – against BYU – he managed 4 points, 4 boards, 3 assists. Not quite Arsalan Kazemi yet not even close, either. But he’s long been considered a budding piece of what Dana Altman is trying to accomplish. And now’s the time. From a personnel standpoint, the Ducks can’t quite hit the boards the way they used to. Or rather, the way Tony Woods and Kazemi did. They’ve shifted from a top 10 defense to a top 10 offense. The best offensive team Dana Altman has ever coached. As we move forward, the emergence of a Robin to Mike Moser’s Batman could greatly benefit the Ducks.
  3. DaVonte Lacy – There aren’t going to be many reasons to watch Washington State so I present this guy:
  4. Washington’s Front Court… amongst so many other things in Seattle – Maybe there isn’t much to watch here as this team has become decimated through recruiting failures and injury (RIP Jernard Jarreau). Perris Blackwell is a fine player, but he’s one man. This is Romar’s worst defensive team since – well it’s literally the worst defense he’s ever coached. They rank 287th in defensive efficiency giving up 1.09 points per possession. Woof. Teams are shooting a 54% eFG against them, otherwise known as 318th best nationally. Double Woof. And that front court that doesn’t necessarily exist? Allowing 70% shooting at the rim. Teams are shooting 56% from 2-point range and I could go on but I won’t because as the Dawgs allow more and more points it raises more and more questions I don’t want to discuss about the health of Husky Hoops. So why watch? Because it could be something of a last hoorah.
  5. Oregon’s SOS – It has to improve. Or perhaps better said: it’s going to. They’ll play all of Arizona (State and the good guys) and UCLA twice while only escaping a visit from Colorado. Amongst KenPom’s top-25 teams, the Ducks have the 5th easiest schedule. Completely to their credit, they’ve handled that schedule. But as the going gets tough we’ll get to see whether or not this team will Win the Day.
  6. Cal’s Injury Bug – First they dropped two tough games without Richard Solomon in the lineup at the Maui Invitational. Then Kreklow and Bird sustained injuries and it’s pretty wide open as to when either of these two is coming back. You don’t need me to tell you that’s not good. I love Bird’s skill set and he carried the Bears through a few games earlier this year. They’ll now rely even more heavily on seniors Cobbs and Solomon as well as soph Ty Wallace and junior David Kravish. That’s a nice foursome, but nothing close to what this team is with Ricky and Jabari. Will their absence cost the Bears a chance to dance?
  7. The POY Race – I wrote really early in the year about this because why not? This is going to shake out to be a really great race because there are so many players that will be worthy of the title for so many different reasons. From Joseph Young who gets points like a Fuel Band to Kyle Anderson who does everything like a Swiss Knife,  how will voters (Pac-12 coaches) evaluate? Value (Nick Johnson, Anderson, Delon Wright, Mike Moser)? Skill (Young, Jahii Carson, Jordan Adams)? Whatever the case, it’s not going to be Jorge Gutierrez.
  8. Arizona’s Depth – Or lack thereof. They’re a damn talented team who then ranks 312th in percentage of bench minutes. The Pac-12 season is a grind and getting into the Yorks, Pitts’, and Korcheks of this lineup could help alleviate some of stress on the core-six. But it’s a really good core-six. One thing I’ve long been interested in – ever since he started the first game of the year – is the development of Gabe York. He wasn’t expected to be getting much tick – his defense a liability and a thorn in Miller’s side. But he’s shown some ability to defend but it’s his shooting ability (42% 3FG%) that I believe could make Arizona the hands down favorite to win this whole damn thing. But he’s not quite there yet. Conference play will be his chance to cut his teeth in some big games.
  9. Hot Seats – I hate this topic but it’s going to come up and as a given team maybe does worse than we might expect, there could be some seats warming up all over the conference. The influx of coaching talent across both football and basketball in the past 3 years has been impressive and if you’re not keeping up with the Joneses then you’re just losing sporting events. There are going to be a few ADs with tough decisions in the coming months. You already know which ones they are and so do they.
  10. Dunks –
  11. Delon Wright and the Scorin’ Utes – Larry K’s team has exceeded the 120-point mark twice this season and they’re third in the nation in points per game (87.4). They’ve also played nothing short of a middle school schedule but that’s a whole different topic. Delon Wright has been an incredible addition to this team. He’s doing almost everything for them: 15/7/6, 138.3 ORtg. The obvious here is that I’m intrigued to see how he fairs against better competition; which begins tonight as he and the Utes host #10 Oregon and all of the guard talent in the world. The other thing to note about Utah here is that they have the fifth highest eFG% in the nation. Again, the schedule stuff, but at a certain point we have to appreciate that what Larry K’s team is doing is simply efficient. Excited to see how it translates. They’re 11-1.
  12. Jahii Carson – Because he’s Jahii Carson.
  13. #20 Colorado – The lede here is that they’re ranked and Tad’s making a name of this program and Spencer Dinwiddie is likely league-bound and then something else about Askia Booker putting up shots like a Tri-Delt. It’s all true. But let’s take a moment to think about Josh “Jelly” Scott as we head to conference play. The guard play in this conference is obscene. The Arizona bigs have been getting their love but how about Scott? Here are his numbers in Colorado’s last four games: 15 points and 11 boards. That’s a lot of everything you’d want from your big. He takes just 7 shots per game to get his points, which is grossly efficient. And this is the point in the blurb that I mention his free throw rate: 88.2. That’s a 147% increase over last season’s FTRate. He’s drawing greater than 6 fouls per forty minutes. Once perceived as soft, he’s banging his way to the free throw line and offensive success. Such a post asset is going to bode well for the Buffs as we make our way towards March.
  14. Vegas – Things happen there that should stay there. You know this and I know this and the Vegas travel bureau markets that. Certain things should stay there including the Pac-12 tournament. This will be year two of the three year contract that I fully expect to be renewed. But I don’t expect many teams to be sticking around Vegas. What I mean is I think there’s going to be a hearty number (seven) of Pac-12 teams leaving Vegas for the big dance. I also think this Pac-12 tourney is going to be as fun as it gets. Hoops on basketball on baskethoops.

Six thoughts on Five Days of Pac Hoops

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This first week of the college basketball season has really moved fast as we’re already going to have a new number one team and I’ve already completely written off Stanford’s season and proposed trading Washington State. It’s gonna be a good one.

Here’s a few observations from close-to-the-first week:

What if this really is Richard Solomon? And Ty Wallace?

Through just two games the big Bear has grabbed 26 rebounds. Maybe that’s not sustainable but I’ve long touted the necessity of his improvement for Cal to be a frightening contender. They’ve got the pieces to contend but to strike fear? That’s Solomon’s job. What’s more is he’s committed just four fouls in those two games. It’s obviously early but these are auspicious signs for Monty’s front court. And Ty Wallace is 18/5/4.

BUT OREGON SUSPENDS DOMINIC ARTIS AND BEN CARTER!

Old news, yes, but then Johnathan Loyd missed no shots, turned no balls over, and assisted on seven buckets as the Ducks beat JOSH SMITH’S Hoyas. I’ve said it a few times now but Oregon is the only team that could survive this suspension. They have more guards than jersey combinations. We ultimately, however, have no idea what Carter is going to bring to the table. Would he have helped to stop Josh Smith? Probably, but the front court will continue to be a place to focus for the Ducks as they shoot their way through these suspensions.

Tony Parker’s development at UCLA:

Luc and I agree that UCLA’s ceiling is primarily dependent on this kid’s development. He allows the Wear family to become role players and that’s what they are: very good role players. Tony Parker could be a star and if he is, Jordan Adams is going to rain Manna from heaven and it’s rumored that Kyle Anderson would shave. Here are Tony’s two stat lines:

  • vs. Drexel: 20min, 3-6 FG, 6pts, 5rbs, 1blk, 4fls
  • vs. Oakland: 34 min, 10-12 FG, 21pts, 12rbs, 3blks, 3fls

I’m going to conclude that Tony Parker plays his best basketball when he’s on the court. Fair? Keep him out of foul trouble and the Bruins just might have the big man they’ve coveted to open the floor for Adams threes and Wear jumpers. Going to elaborate on this one later.

You should probably get used to this:

And these dunklights:

The new starter

Much ado about Colorado’s returning of four starters. It’s a nicety for any team and a recipe for high expectations. They lost Andre Roberson who is actually averaging 2 rebounds a game for the Buffaloes this season despite not playing a game or even being eligible. But keep an eye on his replacement, Wesley Gordon. He’s a thick athlete (6’9″ 225lbs) and is swiftly putting up competitive numbers: 11 points, 8 rebounds. There’s a team-wide learning curve but those things tend to flatten out when there’s talent around. Wesley Gordon’s pretty talented.

 

Ranking the Pac-12 front courts

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While this group doesn’t hold a candle to the collective guard talent, there are some formidable pieces. The conference has brought in solid transfer bigs and we could see a record fall in Tempe. I’ll propose the question: What is Kyle Anderson and why’d ya do it, Eric Moreland? The bigs:

  1. Arizona – Three five-stars that each bring a completely different set of skills to the table. You can push Aaron Gordon to the three and he can talk all about his desire to play there, but the fact of the matter is, the kid plays above the rim. That’s Kaleb Tarczewski big. The impending health of Zach Peters (recently cleared) offers another six-feet-and-ten-inches of unique skill set (shots).
  2. Stanford – Maybe they haven’t won much but between Dwight Powell and Josh Huestis you’ve got everything you’d want in a front court. Each has springs and can play physical. Powell can score from all over the place while Huestis is about as tough defensively as they get.
  3. UCLA – I already gave Kyle Anderson some back court love, but last season he was asked to be more of a forward and he excelled at that – averaging nearly a 9 boards/game. The Bruins already feature the Wear family who’s been formidable and while Travis is out injured right now, David is healthy again and should have an improved season from a year ago. The unknown to this group – and the piece that could make them a pretty scare team – is the improvement and conditioning of Tony Parker. It’s an unfortunate annual event that we discuss the conditioning of a Bruin big but if one of them ever gets it about them to be in shape, look out.
  4. Colorado – Josh Scott had a great first season and particularly when he had fresh legs. His output tapered some as the season dragged on but that’s what sometimes happens with freshmen. He’s now a year aged and while he lost his rebounding running mate, Xavier Johnson projects to fill in nicely at the wing-forward spot while Buffs fans are also very high on Wesley Gordon.
  5. Oregon – One of their starters was suspended but that’s not the key piece. Mike Moser has proven to be a terrific power forward. In 2011-12 he was amongst the nation’s best players. Then a year later he wasn’t. Who is Oregon getting? I’m thinking it’ll be a lot more of the former than the latter. If Ben Carter can recover from his salesmanship and produce, this group could be tough with all those guards.
  6. ASU – Depth maybe isn’t their strong suit up front but if Jordan Bachynski can replicate last season, he will be the Pac-12’s All-Time leading shot blocker. That’s saying something.
  7. Oregon State – Let’s note right up front that Eric Moreland will be out for 14 straight games. We’ll also note that he’s a very good basketball player and flirted with the NBA. The First Team also has Devon Collier and returns everyone’s second favorite Aussie, Angus Brandt. In most any other system, I think these guys might be a top-four front court. But this is a school averaging just 15 wins a year the past three seasons. Sigh.
  8. California – I’ve said it before, I like Richard Solomon. I think he could have a big year. But to this point he’s been a foul prone athlete in Cal’s paint. His services have been supplemented by a walk-on named The Thurmanator. Solomon has the skills to be great, but will he? The other big in Haas is David Kravish who has a very sound skill set, a solid big, but he’s just not that big. Front court depth will also be a Bear-issue.
  9. Washington – They lose their anchor in Aziz but they’re bringing in a very interesting piece that LoRo says has the “potential to lead the team in scoring.” That’s nice – and scary, frankly, considering CJ Wilcox is on the team – but what I like the most about the addition of Perris Blackwell is that he’s a big body who’s going to let all those guards run amuck. Between him and the Rain Man Jr. (along with Desmond Simmons), the Dawgs have a few guys to get dirty in their second attempt at the high post offense. And this.
  10. Utah – This ranking hinges squarely on the fact that Jordan Loveridge is fantastic, he’s a double-double about to happen. Maybe he’s manning the middle alone now (bye Jason Washburn), but he’s man enough to do it. Worth noting, K did mention an improved and healthy Renan Lenz.
  11. USC – I don’t think these two are well suited for Andy Enfield’s tempo but they are serviceable bigs. Omar Oraby and DJ Haley are just too big for Dunk City. This is an offense that needs to get out and move and 7’2″ and 7′ tends to be a bit rigid when it comes to the fast break.
  12. WSU – Uhhhhh. They have their full allotment of scholarship athletes?

Dominic Artis and Ben Carter Suspended

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Oregon took a selfie on Tuesday afternoon and it unfortunately did not involve a cheerleader. Sorry to disappoint but evidently you can sell yourself for autographs but not your free tees.

No the disappoint lay in the action of two projected starters for the Ducks who sold team apparel. Domninc Artis and Ben Carter did their best Terrell Pryor and Dana Altman did his worst Jim Tressel (didn’t lie, self-reported) and the University of Oregon had to be the centerpiece of NCAA compliance – again – during a week in which they’re doubly starring on ESPN. Between Thursday’s football game and Friday’s South Korea game, the Ducks are all over the worldwide leader.

And this news ain’t helping. Certainly not on the heels of sanctions for the football team and certainly not on the heels of the Joseph Young news. The latter was reason for gross optimism surrounding UO hoops. Tuesday’s news, however, serves to dampen some of that excitement. But not too much.

I love college basketball and one of the reasons I love it is because it allows teams to grow and develop. Get a little hot, a little cold, time your runs and that’s a season. But ask this very Duck program what one loss meant to their 2012 football season.

Artis and Carter won’t play and my biggest concern for the Ducks isn’t that they’ll drop the Georgetown game or even a lesser non-conference game (the apparel sellers project to miss about 9 games). Those are all nice contests to win and Oregon would be expected to win with these two. No my concern isn’t on the wins or losses column so much as it is on the minutes played column for Carter. Here’s a guy many folks are very high on and are expecting big things from – his coach likely not withstanding – who played only a handful of minutes last season. He recorded just 10.4 minutes per contest with an introductory 13% usage rate. Ben Carter didn’t contribute a ton last year.

But we’ve been expecting him to significantly contribute to a revamped Duck front court (HI, MIKE MOSER) and the only way he’s going to improve is by recording more court time. To increase his usage and minutes played because that’s how you get better at things. 10,000 hours isn’t a joke and it isn’t achieved during self imposed suspensions.

Oregon is going to weather this storm but perhaps at the cost of Ben Carter’s development. They’ll replace Artis with reigning Pac-12 Tournament MVP, Johnathan Loyd. How many teams can say that? But the effects of this suspension could have ripple effects as the games grow in magnitude after the calendar turns over into Pac-12 season.

In his stead, the Duck front court will turn to guys like Waverly Austin and transfer Richard Amardi. True, they’re no more experienced than Carter, but he was the one projected to start and the one who many felt would solidify an already outstanding lineup.

I guess we’ll just have to wait.

Arizona and Oregon Still Dancing: Advance Factors

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The last remaining Pac-12 squads in the NCAA tournament face steep challenges. For the Ducks, they’ve drawn the Dance’s number one overall seed and the toughest press this side of Gutenberg. In the West bracket, the Wildcats will face the Ohio State Buckeyes and their athletic set of wings and a scrappy point guard.

So how can these two squeak by? How can Oregon get to their first Elite Eight since 2007 (subsequently this is their first Sweet 16 since then, too)? What’s it going to take for Arizona to advance?

The advance factors:

The Obvious

  • Oregon – Dominic Artis and Johnathan Loyd are the team’s primary ball handlers. They man the ship for the nation’s 83rd most turnover prone team (21.5% TO%). That’s not good and as we mentioned, Louisville has a press which not coincidentally is at the root of the word “pressure.” They put heaps and loads of it on guards. And teams. The Cardinals are second in the country in defensive TO% (28%). You realize this means their opponent yields nearly 1/3 of their possessions to the Cardinals? That’s like having your team manager stand outside a restaurant bathroom and watch guard while you… well wait… it’s nothing like that. But the point is, Artis and Loyd are preparing for the toughest test of their season. This undersized tandem will have their hands and faces full of pressure. Dealing with it and taking care of the rock will go a long way in advancing the Ducks.
  • Arizona – As it’s been a season long dialogue, Mark Lyons is the obvious X-Factor for the Wildcats. I wrote about it for Point Guard U this week and now allow me to quote Chris Dufresne’s LA Times piece on the semi-PG:

    The truth is, Arizona will win this year’s NCAA title if senior guard Mark Lyons plays the way he played last weekend in Salt Lake City.

By that hyperbolic (though I love it) account, I think it’s fair to call Lyons an X-factor.   And just to recount, “last weekend in Salt Lake City” means 50points, 63% shooting, and just 4 turnovers.

The Subtles

  • Oregon – Maybe this one is obvious in that I’m about to make a total pun but subtly very important to the Ducks’ success will be their wings (see what we did there? so much giggling right now). And by wings I’m looking at Daymean Dotson and Carlos Emory. In his first big dance, Dotson has scored 40 points on 54% shooting and is 8-15 from deep. For a team that struggles to shoot the three, the emergence of a greater-than-50% shooter is nice, to put it subtly. And in his swan song, the senior Emory has gone ahead and become great energy off the bench and spent his upset minded first weekend dropping a combined 26 points and grabbing 13 boards. The Duck Wings (decidedly I’m hoping this catches on) combined for 66 points. Stay hot my friends.
  • Arizona – While we may have overwhelming memories of the cardinal and navy putting up gaudy offensive numbers, the core of the current team and current philosophy is tough defense. That tenant was lost for some portion of the season and then it reemerged in contagious fashion as Nick Johnson has reestablished himself as the defensive stopper Sean Miller lauded him to be. Thad Matta and others are taking note, too. It is yet to be determined what assignment Johnson will draw but the tone is set: Defense will win games for these Wildcats (unless you ask Dufresne, above). The Buckeyes pose no mega, collective threat offensively as the core of their success lies on the defensive end, too. Can Johnson be the more disruptive force?

Under the Radars

  • Oregon – These Ducks are pretty damn big. With a starting front court of Woods and Kazemi they’ve managed to be one of the better rebounding teams in the nation. And after those two they trot out the likes of Waverly Austin (6’11”) and Ben Carter (6’8″). It’s been this rebounding edge that I believe has allowed the Ducks to overcome their proclivity for turnovers. DYK the Ducks are one of the top offensive rebounding teams in the nation (36% OR%)? DYK the Cardinals are one of the not so good defensive rebounding teams in the nation (yield a 33% OR%)? Now, I should note that the Cardinals manage to rebound the hell out of the offensive end (38.5%), a byproduct of their full court pressure. But this advantage could be negated by Oregon’s size and rebounding. The rebounding battle (looking at you Iranian Mound of Rebound) should prove central.
  • Arizona – The crop of freshmen have been lauded since forever. As the names said “yes” to Sean Miller last summer the fable grew. And then the season began and they were….freshmen. They’re the only top-10 recruits still playing which is a moderately fun fact but what they provide is something Ohio State just may not be able to handle: size. These kids are huge which the Buckeyes are not. Now size itself is not the answer (too many jokes to be made here) but just as Dotson/Emory have caught fire in the Dance, so too have these pups. Excluding Jerrett from Saturday’s win over Harvard in which he played just one minute after injuring his now completely healthy elbow, this triumvirate (and one game tandem) has put up a combined for 35 points, 36 boards; or 7/7.2 in just 21.4 minutes. They’ve been the difference makers on the glass and in the lane and will need to continue to do so against the undersized and less-than-stellar rebounding Bucks.

Survive.

And advance.

Baby Bigs and Why Patience Matters. Josh Scott, too.

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I debuted this morning on SB Nation’s Wildcats site, AZ Desert Swarm. It’s a good, comprehensive site covering all facets of Arizona athletics. Get into it.

So what I dove into over there this morning was the Arizona freshmen bigs and this absurd but relatively muted notion that they’ve disappointed (I really should curb my message board reading). They have not been a disappointment and I spell that out with comparisons to Arizona bigs of the past – all of whom were drafted except Ivan Radenovic – and the collection of Top-50 bigs of the past three classes and their freshman year output. Kaleb, Grant, and Brandon are about par for the course.

Those kiddos will be improving and one has to appreciate the sound of that considering they stand at 17-2 with room to indeed play better.

But what about other baby bigs across the conference? Arizona didn’t have a complete monopoly on sized incomers, how are those guys fairing? We have seen a smattering of matured big men coming into their own this season (Tony Woods, Jordan Bachynski, Eric Moreland, Dwight Powell), further supports the notion that everyone grows up. A quick peak at the pups:

Big PPG RPG
Tony Parker, UCLA 2.7 1.4
Ben Carter, Oregon 3.1 2.8
Grant Verhoeven, Stanford 0.9 0.9
Jeremy Olsen, Utah 2.3 2.6
Josh Scott, Colorado 12.6 5.6

Toldya! Freshmen bigs have a steeper learning curve (apologies if I’ve missed any others). While few of these guys came in as ballyhooed as the Zonies, they too will need time to develop. Yeah, it takes the brain a minute to fire off synapses seven feet apart and suddenly when you enter the college game you’re not playing against City High’s 6’5″ pimple faced junior who just texted his mom that he got a B+ on his chemistry exam (so getting grounded). Now these guys are banging against like-sized humans and that’s a different ball game. There is so little post development at the sub-collegiate level because there just isn’t the competition to support it. I mean, Anthony Davis developed his skills as a guard and then puberty reared it’s ugly head and said, “Young man, let’s do this.”

But let’s talk about Mr. Scott.

By many accounts, he was one of the most skilled big men in the 2012 class. Scouts raved of his scoring ability and ambidexterity. In learning about the 6’10” Coloradoan, we find that his profile has few parallels to other bigs in his class. Their profiles read something like a model’s, talking about bodies and frames or how athletic they are. Something straight out of that scene in Moneyball where Billy Beane abruptly dismisses the celebration of “high butts…like we’re looking for Fabio.” Well no one is soon to call Mr. Scott “Fabio” but he is an example of a skilled tall person in the right system who is taking advantage of the opportunity.

He’s not about to wow you with athleticism but he will get by you with deft skill and put the ball into the basket be it by post move or free throw. He’s crafty and it’s been an impressive twenty games thus far. He’s an exception to the rule.

Conference and nation-wide, freshmen bigs will improve and that’s exciting news. It’s anecdotally supported that the older these guys get, the better they are. Tony Woods doubles his scoring output? Oregon is 18-2. Jordan Bachynski jumps from 6/4 with just one block per contest to 11/7 and 5 blocks? ASU is a bubble team. And sure there are other factors playing into Oregon and ASU’s success but these bigs have been integral to that success. Look, I know it’s not rocket science but teams are better suited with a formidable front court than back court. There’s a reason you have a 17% chance of making the league if you’re seven-feet tall.

But in the meantime, some teams will continue to endure the learning curve. A message that may resemble Sean Miller’s comments for his freshman, Aneglo Chol, last year:

Please catch the ball when it is passed to you, Angelo.