Tag Archives: CJ Wilcox

WANE: Eugene Wins, Las Vegas Gets Spencer

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Ben Carter dismissed a Nick Johnson shot and then Washington State beat the hell out of UCLA and now Vegas. Those were the waning moments of Pac-12 regular season basketball and we had Matt from Addicted to Quack on WANE to discuss that Oregon game and everything forthcoming in Las Vegas.

Give it a listen, we go deep:

 

The Table:

0:00 – Matt’s work all over that intro

0:40 – Spencer admits that Eugene is different when you’re not an undergrad, but no-less fantastic.

1:38 – Really strange moment where everyone admits they’re not really sure what’s going on with regards to recording and logistics. You learn a little about how we make this happen.

2:20 – Things get existential

3:26 – We are going to handle this podcast by asking questions and then we note that Utah vs. Washington is an awesome way to kick this thing off.

4:33 – Tangent on Washington State and Spencer admits he was a little butt hurt to see the Wildcats lose in Eugene then poses a great argument for said WSU upset of UCLA.

7:40 – WHO IS THE MOST DANGEROUS TEAM – OUTSIDE OF SAY….ARIZONA – IN THE PAC-12 TOURNAMENT?

18:57 – WHICH TEAM HAS THE MOST TO GAIN?

24:24 – DOES ARIZONA STAND TO HAVE THE MOST TO GAIN…A NUMBER ONE SEED?

29:41 – WHO IS THE PLAYER TO WATCH?

38:14 – Money, sent to me in a won bet with my father, arrives.

39:37 – THIS IS HOW YOU DEFINE STANFORD. BRAVO, MATT!

41:42 – After diving into the number of ridiculous guards in this conference, how’s about the big kids?

47:10 – Adam with a major buzzkill on his stance on conference tournaments

48:02 – WHAT IS THE BEST POTENTIAL MATCHUP IN THE PAC-12 TOURNAMENT?

57:26 – Spencer, the only of us going to Vegas, with the last word

Where They Affect the Game: Roberto Nelson and CJ Wilcox

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Between Roberto Nelson and CJ Wilcox, these tremendous seniors have weathered the worst Pac-12 storm we’ve ever seen. And that’s on a coast that rarely experiences bad storms. Across their four years, they’ve been a part of some awful conference play. Yet here they are now, on the cusp of being two of the best players in a conference possibly sending 7 teams into the Dance.

And do you realize that neither of these two would make a normal first team all-conference team? Normal would suggest a five-man squad which the Pac-12 doesn’t do so they’ve got a Pac-12 chance at first team. But these guys aren’t even top-5! Sure, neither plays on a particularly dangerous squad so they fly under the radar, ignored pretty regularly despite terrific individual numbers. I get that wins are the most important stat; but that doesn’t mean we can’t appreciate an individual’s efforts to try to win.

I wanted to tell each of their stories, how they affect the game. But as I worked harder into their numbers, deeper into their stories, I found some interesting parallels. And some fascinating divergence.

I’d like to begin with the parallels:

Player FG FGA FG% 3P% FT% TRB AST PTS
CJ Wilcox 6.2 13.5 0.46 0.401 0.854 3.6 2.6 18.2
Roberto Nelson 6.1 13.7 0.449 0.402 0.843 3.5 3.7 20.6

I was really excited to see these near identical outputs. The two best players on these two average teams. I mean, even their teams are nearly identical. Washington is 16-13, 8-8 and Oregon State is 15-13, 7-9. I even took a gander at their win shares: Nelson 3.7, Wilcox 4.0. Right on down the line they seem to be pretty similar. Wilcox is 6’5″ 195lbs. Nelson is 6’4″ 198lbs. Same size, same numbers, the big picture suggests they affect the game similarly.

But going a level deeper, we find our divergence.

Screen Shot 2014-03-04 at 10.03.50 PM

 

Simply put, Roberto gets to the rim and CJ prefers not to. If you were paying attention to the chart above, you’d have noticed they were making nearly the identical number of FGs per game (6.2 Wilcox, 6.1 Nelson). Yet, per our graph above, Nelson is taking 18.5% more two-point shots than Wilcox. How are they putting up the same number of points. If you guessed free throws, you were right. Nelson’s free throw rate is double that of Wilcox’s (56.7% vs 26.3%). And so it makes sense.

Like our Delon Wright study, Nelson is the slashing creating type. He differs from Wright in that he connects on 40% of his threes (Wright’s an atrocious 25.6%). But ultimately the two of them, as noted, are slashing and creating. Nelson’s possessions result in a play at the rim more than 40% of the time. It’s inside the paint that Nelson fights to 20.6ppg with just a sparse percentage of his shots being assisted. A little more than a third of Nelson’s shots at the rim are assisted. With Wright as our barometer, Nelson gets a slight more help from his friends. Wright has 29.4% of his rim shots assisted. For continuity’s sake, Wilcox is assisted on 45.3% of his rim buckets. These numbers suggest some self-reliance on the part of Nelson and Wright, the ability to create for oneself.

Not CJ’s strong suit. Wilcox is a phenomenal three point shooter. We noted he makes 40% of his shots from there and takes half his shots from there. That’s a productive output and why he’s 10th in the conference in eFG%. Conversely, Nelson leads the conference in usage (32% good for 21st most in the nation).

Nelson needs the ball in his hands to affect the game. Now obviously so too does CJ, but he ranks just 19th in the conference in usage, the lowest such percentage amongst the conference’s top-10 leading scorers (Wilcox is fifth). He’s a beautifully pure shooter. I’m inclined to note how often CJ’s threes are assisted but it’s actually below the D-1 average (75.3% vs 84.9%). Not exactly fulfilling our CJ-is-team-reliant narritive. But as such a great shooter (career 39.2% shooter as compared to JJ Redick’s 40.2% or Salim Stoudamire’s 45.8% – wait, Salim was that much better than JJ, sigh…)  it’s understandable that Wilcox is going to get the green light a little more often than not. Particularly as a senior with two underclassmen guards feeding him. Year-over-year, Wilcox’s percentage of assisted threes has decreased (I see you Abdul).

Ultimately, what each of these players is accomplishing is individually impressive and unique. They’ve arrived at similar destinations taking very different paths.

Neither of these seniors will win the Player of the Year award. But each has been a terrific Pac-12 basketball player, contributing to the resurgence of a conference once mired below mediocrity. It was the laughing stock of college basketball.

Today, while neither of their teams has seen great success, they’ve developed into two of the most dynamic and unique players in the conference. A part of arguably the best guard corps in the nation.

And they are seniors at the ends of their respective paths. I enjoyed watching them and I imagine you did, too. They did great. Good luck.

Where They Affect the Game: Kyle Anderson

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At this point in the season if you haven’t picked up on my new found fascination with shot location data then I should welcome you to the blog. Welcome! But as different shots hold different values, and different players different skill sets, I wanted to learn how and where different players are affecting a basketball game. This is the story of how I got to asking the question.

The transit between my first two BART stops on the way home from work gets no cellular reception. If I’m able to get a Twitter refresh before frantically boarding, it means I scour over the last few hours of tweets. That night I came across this:

In a further panic than the aforementioned refresh, I managed to email myself that tweet as it had piqued my interest. I then went home, ordered $45 of Indian food and watched Elysium with my brother. He passed out while I grabbed my laptop. I was setting out to answer Nieves’ question. Where does a specific player (Kyle Anderson in this case) most effectively and frequently affect a basketball game?

We first needed to know how often Kyle even had a chance to affect the game. One component of this would be to look at a player’s %poss or usage rate. This tells us how often a player is shooting, passing, turning over. It’s a great number but without context it just shows us where the ballhogs are (for better or worse). KenPom often marries usage with ORtg to see if players are being efficient with the possessions they get. It’s a far better marriage than anything Kardashian but not good enough for Neal’s answer.

I needed to know how much of Kyle’s usage was coming at the rim or otherwise. From the hoop-math, I can tell you Kyle’s FG%, percent of shots and assists at the rim, on 2-point jumpers, and from three. I could have told Neal some of these numbers and perhaps satisfied his question. But I wanted to answer it. I knew we’d have to marry up KenPom and hoop-math.

From Pomeroy we could capture Kyle’s possession data and from hoop-math his location data. Our first calculation was to understand how often he had the ball, uncovering how many possessions Kyle was involved in per game. It’s a complex stat but after consult of greater minds than my own, we agreed that the following would suffice in ball parking Kyle (or any player’s) individual possessions per game:

Individual Possessions/game = (team possessions per game)*(%min)*(%poss)

This is taking into account the total number of possessions a player’s team is getting per game, the percentage of minutes he’s on the floor for those possessions, and the percentage of possessions he’s involved in. With this number we understand approximately how many shots, assists, and turnovers Kyle is a part of. More visually:

Player Team PP % Min % Poss Poss/Game
Kyle Anderson 71.20 0.82 0.26 15.37
Slow-Mo gets the third most possessions per game amongst ‘participants’ in my initial study involving the Pac-12 elite (only Roberto Nelson and Jahii Carson were getting more touches per contest). With the knowledge of how often Anderson was doing something, it was time to discover where he was doing it.
Here is where I have to tell you that our final answer is going to be inexact. That’s ok, right? A study like this is a fun examination into that great middle ground between perception and reality. Without Synergy Sports I’m not soon going to look at all of Kyle’s possessions to discover how often he is indeed getting into the paint and scoring or dishing. But the perception is that he’s doing it often; it’s why Nieves asked the question and I imagine you’ve noticed it too because I know your team’s struggled to stop it. What we’re figuring out here is approximately how often Kyle Anderson is helping his team be successful from inside the arc. Kapeesh?

And so how often are those 15-ish possessions resulting in something around the rim?

Player % poss resulting in rim score % poss resulting in play at rim Success % at Rim
Kyle Anderson 33.57% 41.64% 80.63%

So more than 40% of the time Kyle Anderson is involved in a play, it results in something happening at the rim. And on 34.51% of Anderson’s possessions, someone in powder blue (Anderson or otherwise) is scoring at the rim. Stand alone numbers are rarely significant but let me tell you something: that’s significant. I’ve exhausted rim data on the blog but if the average FG% at the rim is 61% then it would seem to behoove your team to shoot there. Kyle Anderson ensure that it happens more than 40% of the time!It was the fourth highest percentage of possessions in the study but the third most scores at the rim per game (5.16) against the fifth most plays there (6.4).

And he’s not just flailing in there, diving recklessly into the paint with no where to go. Looking at the difference between his scores and plays at the rim (those last two numbers from the paragraph above), we find that 80.63% of his rim possessions are resulting in two for the blue. That’s the fourth best percentage amongst the guys I studied. By comparison, Jahii Carson has 40.06% of his possessions at the rim (shot taken or assist made) but only 62.05% of those result in a rim score (more on Carson later this week).

Here is the full table ranked by success at the rim:

Player % poss resulting in rim score % poss resulting in play at rim Success % at Rim
TJ McConnell 44.25 49.84 88.79
Nick Johnson 28.04 32.18 87.13
Delon Wright 50.65 61.23 82.71
Kyle Anderson 33.57 41.64 80.63
CJ Wilcox 21.80 27.25 80.00
Pe’Shon Howard 38.34 48.54 78.99
Nigel Williams-Goss 26.17 35.09 74.59
Askia Booker 29.00 38.95 74.45
Justin Cobbs 29.93 40.62 73.68
Brett Comer (2013) 51.18 72.47 70.63
Roberto Nelson 26.96 40.43 66.67
Chasson Randle 20.96 33.14 63.25
Jahii Carson 24.86 40.06 62.05

This is a ranking of effectiveness when making plays at rim (third column). The players chosen was essentially arbitrary and ad-hoc based on who I thought was driving and dishing. Email or tweet me if you want me to get your guy. There are infinite depths by which to dive further into this and I intend to do that on a team-by-team basis over the coming weeks. But above is a Pac-12 snap shot.

Oh, and you’ll notice Brett Comer. Brett was Andy Enfield’s Florida Gulf Coast point guard and I figured the leader of Dunk City would be an interesting study. Turns out I was right as he CRUSHES the Pac-12 guys in percentage of plays at the rim (72.47%). Anyhow, more on that later.

Back to your question, Neal. Kyle Anderson is creating a play at the rim 6.4 times per game and turning 5.16 of those into a score or assist. Only Delon Wright creates more scores at the rim and he’s a freak (7.08). But as the question asked about Kyle’s time in the paint, we could also include the two-point data. I was hesitant to do such considering that’s a much bigger and less effective shooting range. Plus, the Wear twins love shooting twos with their foot on the arc and ain’t nobody but evidently Kyle Anderson got time for that.

As it were, amongst those studied, he creates the second highest percentage of scores from 2-point range (3.92/game, 25.5% of his possessions). He’s the fourth most successful at converting these plays to points (54.75%). Once again, Anderson is setting his teammates up to be successful, but like I said, the two-point data doesn’t fully scratch the itch. The rimformation answers Nieves’ trigger question.

But to examine Anderson as a complete game affecting package, we had to see what he did in creating threes, too.

Anderson blows the rest of these players out of the water when it comes to effectively creating three pointers. Of his possessions that result in a trey,  78.95% of them are successful. Next best in conference is Jahii Carson’s 69.93% (which is why I believe he has such a low rim success rate but, again, more on him later). And this isn’t even a diluted stat. Anderson creates the second most three point scores per game (3).

So between the rim and three data, I’m drawn to three conclusions: 1) Kyle has a great ability to draw multiple defenders to himself, 2) he’s very adept at finding the man left or the hole created, and 3) his own shooting. Slow-Mo in an efficient 22-42 from distance this year and so he’s either shooting a good three or passing to one.

To summarize (again): 80% of Kyle Anderson possessions that result in a rim shot or three point shot go in the hoop. Kyle’s helping you help him.
Steve Alford Kyle AndersonWe’ve long known Anderson was a terrific basketball player and we’ve long called him a unique talent. As we said early on, this was a look at the balance between perception and reality. We assumed this about Kyle, we’ve proven this about Kyle. Only he and TJ McConnell rank in the top four of all three locations by way of success percentage and he’s the only one who is 6’9″ within that two-man subset. Unique to be certain.

I’m going to use this information to hopefully learn a little more – and share -about each of your teams. As I mentioned, I found the Dunk City stuff to be fascinating as well as the Jahii Carson stuff (Jahishalls are real). Stay tuned and thanks for reading through this 1567 word marathon.

A Friday Runaround the Pac: It Sucks Edition!

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Today, with an emphasis on brevity, I wanted to fly through the Pac-12 as we watch it somewhat begin to bottom itself out. I ask that you read that opening line with that wide-eyed look of faux joy and genuine insincerity when you say something true and painful that you don’t really want to wrap your mind around but you must. Because this conference currently has teams in free fall, limbo, shock, and infancy. There’s one team of predictable performance and after that things appear to suck (they don’t but let’s just be fans on a Friday before a fun weekend. Hey…WHO’S BROTHER IS IN TOWN? This guy!)

Utah – They’re lost on the road, struggling to survive and scraping by on whatever they can. They’re not winning but they’re not dying either. This is a brief plot summary of Utah’s season and Cormac McCarthy’s The Road. Larry Krystkowiak, fortunately, is more articulate than The Son.

Washington State – You need talent to win basketball games and DaVonte Lacy hasn’t played (excluding an injury inducing 11 minutes against ASU) since Bieber retired. Also, not even DaVonte is enough here.

Washington – The Huskies are proving that you can win with a bad offense and a bad defense. Seriously, they’re 4-3 and yet in the bottom half of in the conference in ORtg, eFG%, TO%, OR%, FTrate, 2P%. 3P%, FT%, and Tempo and each of the corresponding defensive calculations. That’s bottom half in 16 of 18 categories and the only two (defensive eFG% and 3p% against) correspond mathematically and the latter is often tossed up to luck. You silly purple team.

USC – DJ MalSki, their top defender.

UCLA – “You’ve got to make Tony mad. He had a really ugly outfit on. He wore red in our office, and that’s just something you don’t do. Make fun of his outfit a lot and that bothers him.” – Steve Alford on how to get Tony Parker going. He’d score 22 on 9-14 against Stanford. Curious if Xavier Johnson was listening?

Stanford – Just not that good. But maybe tonight?

Oregon State – FLOTUS GIF!

Oregon – I mean, why not Washington State, too?

Colorado – There’s still something there (if not just a raging, irrational fire in the belly of Xavier Johnson who has now predicted a 20-point blow out of #1 Arizona on 2/22 in Boulder a game I will be attending) but it’s tough to play the two best teams in the conference after losing your best player. That said, in light of XJ’s comments, maybe a shift in humility is in order?

California – I’m going to chalk up their loss at USC to the MalSki effect. Cal’s seen zone defenses and fast offenses and man defenses and deliberate offenses, but they ain’t never seen beats like that.

Arizona State – Jahii Carson shoots 31% in ASU losses (5) and 50% in ASU wins (14). Stop Jahii, win the game. And may the odds be ever in your favor.

Arizona – “What a team. What a game. How fun. I’m going to sleep in the desert tonight.” – Bill Walton.

WANE: The Mayor Takes Leave

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Spencer and I rekindled WANE and – on the air – declare to record weekly. In this return episode, we talk a lot about Colorado as their bad news filled the news cycles and why Josh Scott needs all the touches. Spencer (not Dinwiddie) discusses his love for the now blown-out-by-Cal-Huskies and we probably get some statistics wrong. There’s an awkward pause in there for effect; not for lack of organization. It’s worth a listen because it’s great. I diatribe briefly about Utah. Seriously amazing stuff.

 

Now that you’ve maybe clicked on the audio I’ll apologize for two things:

  1. We recorded during/before Wednesday’s games
  2. Not enough time – technical difficulties – to post this AND get you a sweet chronological table of contents. My bad

Week 3 Pac-12 Hoops Preview

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Well for the first time in awhile the medical news out of Colorado had nothing to do with marijuana. Which isn’t good but it’s what filled the headlines when we weren’t watching Aaron Gordon dunk things behind his head. Twice. Moving forward of course, this is a big weekend. Scroll up and down the schedule and I challenge you to find a game that doesn’t  have significant long term effects. Maybe that’s hyperbole but I find genuine intrigue to every game this weekend. Making this a great weekend for my parents to come to town and my dad to schedule a Segway Tour (I can’t currently confirm this but it’s heavily rumored. I’ll keep you posted). The weekend:

GotW: We must ignore, to an extent, a top-25 match up. As noted in previous previews, a top-25 tilt is a big deal in the Pac-12 of late because there just haven’t been many. Like actually hooking up with someone via Tinder, it’s rare. But similarly to that app, we’re going to have to swipe #25 UCLA @ #21 Colorado to the left in favor of a night on the town with Washington at California. This one doesn’t have particular national implications but it’s a Wednesday night contest featuring the league’s two most surprising stars. The Dawgs have played fantastic through four games with a solid split in the desert. Meanwhile, Monty’s road warriors are 3-0 with nary a game atop the giant bear. And where this diddy spices up aside from the standings implications, is in the contrast of styles. Or, perhaps more succinctly said, what Washington can’t do. They have almost no interior game. The percentage of shots they take at the rim (30.9%) ranks 315th in the nation. The ball does not go into the lane when Washington has it. Often, they let CJ rain. LET CJ RAIN. But these front court issues aren’t exclusive to the offensive side of the ball. Teams shoot the third highest FG% at the rim against Washington 🙁 That’s 72.1% shooting which, in lay terms, is not-missing-much-percent. All of that said, Richard Solomon will be an obvious key here for the Bears as he’s a game changing big man and Justin Cobbs gets crazy buckets at the rim for a PG or anyone for that matter. Kid gets more than 30% of his offense there. This isn’t the game of the week we deserve. It’s not even the game of the week we need. But it’s the game of the week we’ve got so LET CJ RAIN. (read on for more about Washington as this preview somehow became commandeered by Dawg stats)

Game to Avoid: Scrolling through this week’s Pac-12 schedule like I told you I already did lead me to not one game I wasn’t interested in. This is probably why I’m the world’s preeminent Pac-12 hoops blogger but that’s a different story. Here’s where I net out: Oregon @ Oregon St. First I love this game because no one knows what you’re going to get out of Oregon State or a rivalry game. This is the Civil War on the hard court. Anything can happen and if you know what I mean by anything can happen then what the hell are we going to do with a 1-4 Oregon squad? Alas, this becomes a game to avoid because of geography. That’s a strange proposition considering I declared my love for this game based on the geography of its participants. I’m thinking bigger picture here, guys. You see, Oregon is uniquely located between the states of Washington and California. More specifically it’s located between Seattle and San Francisco. And even more specifically it’s located between the Seahawks and the Forty Niners. See where I’m at now? The population center is Portland which is just stone’s throw from Seattle and probably defines much of the State’s Hawk allegiance. Nonetheless, all across the Beaver State there is a vested interest in the NFC Championship that kicks off at 3:30. If you’re going to avoid the 5pm Civil War, this iteration would be the one to skip. Besides, the Ducks’ defense isn’t about to stop you.

Something to Prove: It’s the Colorado Buffaloes. Here’s a team that has developed a reputation for playing  emotionally over the past two years – winning the big game, losing to the lesser travel partner. But they find themselves now with their greatest and easily most emotional challenge yet. The loss of Spencer Dinwiddie is a major blow. One any team would struggle to absorb but a challenge nonetheless. And then they found out, just hours later, that Tre’Shaun Fletcher would miss the next 6-8 weeks with a knee injury of his own. Shit on shit on shit. But this cannot define the Buffaloes. It is a challenge they must rise to and accept. They’ll need to make adjustments – you don’t replace a Spencer Dinwiddie overnight – but there are enough talented players here to carry on. They’ve been dealt a tough hand, I want to see how they respond.

Something to Lose: It’s a surprising 3-1 but not as if they’ve used a herculean effort to get here. They haven’t necessarily blacked out from the field (aprox same FG% in four conference games as their overall FG%, 46% vs. 45%). Their ORtg has taken a near ten point dive so they’re technically less effective on offense. But for these Washington Huskies, their in conference defense ranks second amongst the Conference of Champions. Context? It’s more than ten points per 100 possessions better than their overall defensive efficiency (92.3 vs. 103.5). It’s a similar drop to that of their offensive efficiency (noted above). And so I ask: Who are these Dawgs? Are they the effective offense of their non-conference slate with a porous defense or the inverse they’ve shown us through four conference games? What do they have to lose, you might ask? Sweet momentum and their winning identity, of course. The Dawgs are riding high but a tough trip to the Bay could derail the Dawgs and normalize this trend. Or it could not.

The YouTuber: Slight deviation from our traditional final segment but it’s a pretty long GIF so it shall fly. Enjoy, it’s called “picking up chicks at the gym” and it’s really weird:

VdfKTH8

Week 2 Pac-12 Hoops Review

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I had a joke all lined up. I subtle jab to get our review going and remind everyone it’s just sports. But then Spencer Dinwiddie’s knee moved in a manner that would break his heart – and ours – and I didn’t feel like joking anymore. Because on the tail end of that bench, in Spencer’s red eyes, was a tragic reminder of why this is our favorite game. Sure basketball is grand but the collegiate version calls to us because we know what we have is brief – four years at best – and then it’s over. On to the next crop of kids wearing familiar colors and left to tell tales of the old days with delusions of grandeur. So when that brevity is cut further short by the body’s failures – sudden and unforgiving – it sucks. We selfishly lose out on the joy of watching our team be the best version of itself in their tiny window for success in that iteration. And then there’s the kid. The one who’d worked his ass off to get into the school, to get into the lineup, to get into the lore of this sport. The one with a mom. Maybe it is just sports but that’s not what breaks your heart about Dinwiddie’s tumble. It’s not that we won’t see him jump, pass, or shoot. It’s that he doesn’t get to.

Leader in the Clubhouse: Arizona remains the number one team in the nation and unblemished on their record. They are the definitive leader. But let’s talk about someone else this week namely the California Golden Bears. Here’s a team everyone except Doug Gottlieb has slept on and perhaps rightfully so. They then lose Jabari Bird and Ricky Kreklow heading into conference play where their first three games are on the road. So naturally they win all three of them. They are tres-and-oh and Justin Cobbs is the man. He’s scoring 19.3 conference points per game, grabbing 4.6 conference boards, and assisting on 8.3 conference baskets for his teammates. And one of those teammates is Richard Solomon who is playing like a man possessed by his seniority. This is his last hurrah and so he’s grabbing all of the rebounds (8th best DR%) and making all of the baskets (56.2% eFG up from 48.1% last year). In case basketball is new to you, when you have a point guard and a center playing well, you have a recipe for success. And Mike Montgomery has a degree from Hogwarts.

Biggest Loser: You can’t drop home games. I mean you can, it’s competition and so anything can happen but if you’re trying to win things like the conference you can’t lose at home. And winning on the road is really important because it’s really hard. Those red letters on the left link to an article I wrote about this very subject. We judge teams based on where they win or lose. I’m judging Oregon. They have not defended their homecourt or anyone for that matter. The points per possession they’ve given up in conference: .89, 1.28, 1.19, 1.21. They have little problems getting the buckets (7th best offense per ORtg) but if they’re going to be taken seriously on a national if not conference level, they’re going to have to start getting some stops.

What We Learned: Well not a whole lot more about Stanford who split their Oregon trip the way few teams will (lose in Corvallis, win in Eugene). Of course if this team’s season long improvement play (what they were going to do differently this year vs. last as told to me by Johnny Dawkins) was to think about the year differently, I’m curious what’s on their mind. They’ve started conference play 1-2 for the second straight year and have almost an identical 15 game record as last season (10-5 now vs. 9-6 then). Not so different as their ORtg and DRtg are also almost identical to the past, too. They’d also mentioned being mentally tougher (part of thinking differently) and thus winning close games. Well that’s kinda working as they squeaked out wins by 2 points at each of UConn and Oregon. Maybe we start a new segment in here that’s just called WHAT DOES THE STANFORD SAY? and then I just write or link to whatever I want and it’s wildly unpredictable and completely upsetting but you’re attracted to that instability by some unintelligible force that keeps telling you that they’ll change. Did I just describe my ex-girlfriend?

In Defense Of: I’ve been all over Utah lately and how interesting what they’re doing has been. What have they done? Well lost 3 of 4 conference games. That doesn’t sound all that interesting but perhaps lost amongst the excitement of their 11-1 start and their thrilling loss to Oregon is that the Utes never really were there. That’s to see, I wasn’t annointing them title contenders or March dancers but rather noting their marked improvement, their progress and the promise of what could be. They’re definitively not there yet. But like previously noted, winning on the road is difficult. Utah took to Oregon and left with two black eyes. But their eyes are blackened because they were in a fight, not because they got their asses whooped. They’ve now lost by a combined seven points and have held a second half lead in every one of their conference games. There’s a measurement on KenPom that looks at luck because sometimes you can’t win them all. I wrote about it with regards to Utah last year. Basically, the Utes are the 345th unluckiest team in the nation right now (see: Dotson, Damyean). They’re 1-3 but that doesn’t yet mean they’re bad. Utes, defended.

The YouTuber: Have you ever seen so much in 82 seconds?

 

Egregiously Premature Pac-12 Player of the Year List

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Oh you know it’s wildly early in the season and so we should judge every book by its cover, anoint a champion yesterday and fire all of the coaches. We can call this an egregious or just a Watch List. Semantics aside, here’s a little check-in on some of the conference’s best.

New-ish and very seriously in the conversation

Joseph Young – We knew that he was talented but the junior has been scintillating. I mean, his worst game has been a 12 point effort in which he still managed to piece together a 115 ORtg. Joe Young has been terrific and the Ducks are just five games away from getting better following Shoe-gate.

Jordan Loveridge – I mean no offense to Evergreen State but the Utah Utes have played absolutely no one. But SOS aside, Loveridge has been stat stuffing monster: 18 points, 12 boards, 3 assists, and a 129 ORtg. Sustainability will become the name of the game – along with whether he can do it against school’s not named after foliage.

Roberto Nelson – This Beaver has the third highest usage percentage in the nation at 39.1%. That means he’s putting up a shot four out of every ten Beaver possessions. That alone doesn’t say much beyond, perhaps, BALL HOG or duh-the-Beavers-needed-someone-to-jack-up-all-the-shots-after-Ahmad-Starks-transferred. But let’s note here what he’s doing with all those shots. His ORtg is 127.2 and his EFg is 55%. His turnover rate is sub-10% and he’s dishing assists at a top-40 clip (36.2%). The ball is in his hands and he’s doing nothing but good things. And he torched the Terps in College Park.

Chasson Randle – Long been a fan of this kid’s talent and was a little disappointed by his sophomore season. He cooled off in the shooting department, coming back down 44% shooting to 40%. He took more shots, however, and maintained his scoring average. This year, however, he’s shooting a blistering 52% and dropping 22 a game. The identity of this Cardinal team is still yet to be determined, but Randle seems to have his groove back.

The Usual Suspects

Jahii Carson – I’m not going to effuse here about how damn good this guy has been. He scored 40 points by making 14 layups. He’s 5’10”.

Kyle Anderson – Dude dropped a triple-double and is just thriving as a point guard. Slow-mo is every bit the unique talent we thought he was. His shot still hasn’t quite come around (20% from distance, 63% from the line) but that doesn’t always matter when you’re doing everything else on the basketball floor.

Jordan Adams – I think he might be my favorite player in the Pac-12. He’s just so smooth out there and he hasn’t missed a beat since last season when he unglamorously played thrived in the shadow of Shabazz. And when I say smooth, I mean he’s getting everything done. He’s the owner (producer?) of a top-100 ORtg, eFG%, and TS%. And because I just love the traditional stats, there’s this: 22ppg, 5rpg, 2apg, 3spg, 56% FG, 46% 3FG, 87% FT. Oh Jordan.

CJ Wilcox –

 Great players who won’t win the POY award
Aaron Gordon – He very well could be the best player in the conference but by way of the system he’s in and the talent around him, I don’t think he’s going to shine the way a POY tends to shine. Or needs to shine. He’ll get oodles of hoopla to be sure, but he might be out produced on his own team by Nick Johnson. Or Brandon Ashley.
Justin Cobbs – Fantastic player. Love his talents. But Monty has put together some additional skills around him that are allowing Justin to be a facilitator as opposed to threat and while this bodes well for the Bears’ ceiling, it isn’t doing him and POY favors. But who cares so long as you’re filling up the left column. His usage is down to just 17% compared to 23.1% last year. But his ARate has jumped to an outstanding 39%, translating to 6.3 dimes a night.
Time will tell
Spencer Dinwiddie – Few are going to question his talents. He’s great, but thus far he’s pretty much mimicked his output from last year. This is by no stretch a BAD thing but if he didn’t win POY last year, then having the same year would suggest he ain’t winning it this year.
Dwight Powell – Similarly to Dinwiddie, Powell is producing the same numbers from last season. In this year of thinking differently Dwight is playing the same aside from one key stat: Free throws. He’s shooting and making fewer of them (down to 57% FT from 80% last year) and the Cardinal have looked…mediocre?

Briefly on Washington’s Boards

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I didn’t have the opportunity to dive deeply into watching the Washington game. But even peripherally it appears that our concerns about Washington’s front court were affirmed by Tom Crean and company. The Dawgs yielded 102 points to Indiana despite trying to slow them in a zone (in stretches) and coughing up just nine turnovers. By most accounts, nine turnovers is a recipe for victory. The catch, is on the glass. Or otherwise said, a lack of catching, and this is where our front court hypothesis is affirmed

You see, while Washington only forfeit nine turnovers, they were out rebounded 50-29. Of those 50 boards, the Hoosiers snatched up 20 offensive boards and subsequently 20 additional possessions by which to approach the century mark. A mark they achieved.

We knew that Washington was going to miss the presence of Jernard Jarreau, but this much? Shawn Kemp Jr. joined us for nine minutes; or just long enough to commit five fouls but not long enough to grab more than one rebound. Giles Dieroidsajflkxvlkjasgcxz grabbed 100% more rebounds than Kemp (2). As I explained on a Daily Dose of Dyl (I start at the 4min mark) this week, Washington is still learning itself. JJ was to be a big piece of what they were doing and Nigel Williams-Goss is still getting his feet wet. CJ Wilcox is fantastic but he doesn’t necessarily create his own shot. Sure, Perris Blackwell has proven pretty formidable on the blocks (13/8). But if 20% of his offense is coming off of put backs, it suggests he’s still not a threat worthy of letting Wilcox get open.

More on the rebounding. Check this out and search for the patterns:

Wash Rebs Opp Rebs Opp Oreb Result
Seattle 37 41 13 W
UC-Irvine 38 43 6 L
E. Wash 48 35 12 W
Indiana 29 50 20 L

What’d you find? I’ll tell you what I found: get out rebounded and you’re likely to lose. In UW’s case, they’ve suffered this punishment twice and lived to see another day, once, when they danced with the Devil in Cameron Dollar form.

Austin Sefarian-Jenkins isn’t soon going to run out of the seven win tunnel to remedy this. He’s got an NFL draft to prepare for and Jon Brockman certainly isn’t on the way.

We knew the Dawgs were going to need some front court help. Who’s going to do it?

Ranking the Pac-12 back courts

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This was no easy task. Back courts across the Pac-12 are loaded this season and a major reason why the Pac is Back. Thus, not coincidentally, this list most closely resembles how I think the conference will shake out. There are big guards and small guards and quick guards and shooters. Veterans and pups. I’d pit this group against any in the country. Alas, they’re just going to pick on each other like Miami Dolphins.

  1. Oregon – Sure the Ducks just lost Dominic Artis to entrepreneurship, but they replace him with the 2013 Pac-12 Tournament MVP. Oregon has guard depth as deep as this guy is drunk. Joseph Young (18ppg), Damyean Dotson (11ppg), Jason Calliste (11ppg), Johnathan Loyd (5ppg), Dominic Artis (9ppg). [somewhere Mike Moser smiles].
  2. Arizona – You can try and tell me that TJ McConnell hasn’t played at the highest level but I’m not about to knock him for that. I’ve watched mid-major talent the last four years in the Pac-12. I know what good looks like when I see it. He’s joined by the ever improving Nick Johnson with Jordin Mayes backing each of them up. I like these pieces.
  3. Colorado – Came very close to being second on this list. While Dinwiddie vs. McConnell is not a draw (Mayor wins out), Askia Booker’s propensity to shoot and to pull up and to fire as compared to everything Nick Johnson does….well I’m giving the collective nod to the Cats. But man, Spencer Dinwiddie is good.
  4. ASU – This might be too low of a ranking for the Devils. Carson is one of the nation’s best and the addition of Jermaine Marshall is an upgrade over the departed Evan Gordon. Did I mention Jahii Carson is good?
  5. California – Aside from Loyd (who will be filling in for Artis) Cobbs is the first senior to make this list (and I’m not counting Marshall, either). He’s joined by Jabari Bird, a McDonald’s AA who isn’t getting near the love he might deserve because of Commissioner (Aaron) Gordon. But the wildcard here is Ty Wallace who I think could have a monster year for the Bears.
  6. Washington – I’ve heard mixed reviews on Nigel Williams-Goss and that’s OK. Another burger All-American, he’s an incoming freshman so there’s going to be equal parts question marks and hype. I get it. But CJ Wilcox. CJ Wilcox. CJ Wilcox. Perhaps the best shooter in the conference is now a senior and very well could have the dynamic, distributing PG to get him even more touches in ideal spots. The rules changes should also help to get him even more open looks. BOMBS AWAY. (Andrew Andrews mention)
  7. UCLA – Their point guard is 6’9″ and goes by the name of slow-mo. That would seem inauspicious but Kyle Anderson is one unique talent. The Bruins are going to miss LD2 but Anderson’s play making and size will make UCLA a tough out. Oh, and that Jordan Adams kid is my favorite.
  8. Stanford – Last year I was very high on the prospects of Chasson Randle who I loved watching slash into the lane and get buckets. He could shoot it, too. His trajectory plateaued last season and he hit a cold streak from the field (44% from 3FG to 36%). This came inopportunely at the same time as Aaron Bright’s cold spell (44% from 3FG to 32%). So what’s the norm, I ask?
  9. Oregon State – Roberto Nelson is a fine player who can score with anyone in this conference. It appears, however, that he’s a one man show with Ahmad Starks (who was really high on him anyways?) departed. Challe Barton will get a crack at PG duties and there’s one more thing I want to mention: Malcolm Duvivier. Why you might ask? Because he’s definitively not Andrew Wiggins. But he is a Canadian prep star who reclassified from 2014 to 2013 to play American College Basketball. Ya hoser.
  10. Washington State – I’m a sucker for veterans – perhaps above talent? No – and the Cougars, for whatever their season will become, feature DaVonte Lacy and Royce Woolridge. These two are nice players for Ken Bone, adding to the guard depth of the conference more than wins for WSU.
  11. USC – JT Terrell should benefit greatly from Dunk City as he’s an athletic guard who wants to get up and down the floor. Or at least get his shots up. Additionally Pe’Shon Howard is a nice pickup for ball handling duties as Enfield’s offense has a tendency for turnovers.
  12. Utah – I’m relatively high on Brandon Taylor. I liked his work down the stretch for the Utes but he’s a sophomore guard with little experience leading a team full of even less experience. His learning curve is steep and I wish him luck swimming in the deep end.