The season is freshly over. The moments shined and while we have a long ways until November – as well as a significant news cycle in the immediate future including: ASU coaching hunt, Ivan Rabb and the Cal(?) Five Stars, NCAA’s head of officiating change, NBA decisions.
But maybe we can take a second to reflect. In January, I noted 12 things to watch during this Pac-12 season, let’s revisit.
Reading instructions: The headlines are as written in January. The blurbs are today’s insights.
Arizona and Colorado will square off for the eleventh time in three seasons tonight. Ben Burrows knows Colorado basketball the way you know your seventh grade crush’s class schedule: he’s on their every move. This is may be our fifth iteration of a Rumblin Buff-PacHoops Q&A and it’s the first time that we find ourselves with a Colorado team that’s really struggling. For their entire Pac-12 lives, CU has been pretty damn good. This year it’s been an unfortunate not so much. Let’s ask Ben – the genius behind The Rumblings of a Deranged Buffalo – about it:
With high spirits considering I knew the entire episode was recorded, I was delighted to see things open with Snoop saying, “We Bruins now.” How could this not be a great episode? I guess setting high expectations is a tough proposition for Colorado.
Alas, what I’d come to discover is that what I missed in mis-DVR’ing the final four minutes was just a power-reel through the most recent weekend of games. We less-than-enthusiastically got to re-live UCLAs sweep of the Ski schools and Askia’s 43. Meh. Continue reading
Before embarking on our fourth week of Pac-12 play, allow me a brief State of the Pac address. SOTP, if you will: Continue reading
It’s a frustrating game and there are a lot of ways your team can frustrate you. From anything that happens on the court to the litany of things they screw up off of it. It’s the curse of fandom. And maybe you’re an optimist – see growth opportunities in a failed in-bounds or benching due to tardiness. Bless you and may that spirit take you far.
Of course one of the most frustrating things is when your team is struggling. When they just seem to suck but you can’t really figure out why. You can’t quantify it, there’s just a feeling – effing feelings – but you know it and the slouched shoulders aren’t helping. Neither is the scoreboard.
That’s maybe the feeling for Colorado right now. Continue reading
Before we get too serious with things, I want to remind all Oregon fans that there are two games this weekend – in Eugene – and their attendance would likely be appreciated. That said, if you’re preoccupied, I’d understand. Hell, Dana Altman might even get it. SCOOOOO BUCKS DUCKS. Allow me to remind you that I’m a heart divided. Grandpa – who’s daughter is featured at the tail of this post – gave me a different Ohio State sweatshirt for the first 13 years of my life. I grew up in scarlet hoodies – for the weekend a year that I’d wear one in Arizona – and dad telling me what an asshole Woody Hayes was (great story about my dad’s law partner and Woody Hayes, ask me about it some time). But after grandpa, grandma, a buncha cousins, and a video of my mom telling me she’d root for OSU over Arizona (her alma mater) I have some really good Duckships (which is friendships with Duck fans). Am I split? Probably not. Let’s talk Monday around 10 PST. I love all y’all.
Week 2 Preview:
The obvious call here is the first ever CFP championship game in which Oregon or Ohio State will arguably earn themselves the moniker of MOST DESERVING COLLEGE FOOTBALL CHAMPION EVER. That’s literally what I’ll run with. In the hoops world this is – to be honest – a really uninteresting week of Pac-12 basketball. Can we say that in week two? Am I supposed to hype something that’s unhypable? Neverthless, I think the game I’m most interested in is Stanford’s visit to UCLA. It’s doesn’t feature the two best teams to face off or arguably anything even that close to it. But Stanford came it at #3 in our Power Rankings this week suggesting, they’re good. Good enough to beat UCLA in Pauley. For UCLA, that would be six straight. Reeling. Conversely, this would be a really big win for a team that needs a really big win. The Bruins are capable of doing it but will they? I’ll be watching to see if Bryce Alford can connect on his first three point bucket of 20-Quinceañera.
This one’s pretty clear to me but if you disagree, you have the opportunity to channel hop. Simulcast with our GotW – Thursday at 6pm PST on FS1 – will be Arizona State’s visit to Corvallis. While I like what Oregon State is doing with Tinkle Time, and think this is one of their best opportunities at a distinguishing win, I really don’t think this is remotely must-see. You can probably save yourself the thumbing, stick to ESPN and the ‘Furd-UCLA game, and use TV timeouts for things like the restroom or calisthenics.
Sorry to be redundant but it’s got to be UCLA here. They’re losers of five straight and in unimpressive fashion. But, because I’m not going to harp on one team throughout our Week 2 Preview, the team with the most to prove could be the Oregon Ducks. On WANE this week, Spencer and I talked about this being a sleeping giant (can you call a team that mid-season? I feel like that’s a phrase reserved for the “Program” level and perennially used to make ASU football fans feel good). The Ducks have played well for the most part and host the Wildcats who haven’t won in Eugene since 2010 (which is misleading because it was December 30th 2010 but nevertheless it’s been quite awhile).
Also going to give a Colorado mention. They played better against the LA schools, got a kick in the emos from Xavier Johnson, did it all without Josh Scott (whom they’ll get back tonight at Utah) and won’t be lost in the thin air of Salt Lake. Further, they’d kicked the demons of never beating UCLA so why not this curse, too:
Well, streaks are meant to be broken, right? The last time CU defeated a Top 10 team on the road was Jan. 15, 1973 (at Mis- souri,81-79 (ot)
— JG (@jgisland) January 7, 2015
UCLA? Nah. OK but seriously. UCLA. But for serious, we’re so early and the schedule is so light that there isn’t much for people to lose. If forced to pick – and I’m forcing myself to pick – I’m going with the Cal Bears. After a big win over UW they lost to WSU suggesting anything is possible. So losing to USC on the heels of that would be bad. Malo if you’re speakin’ Spanish.
This is our newest feature where I text my mom or another family member about the happenings of last week’s Pac-12 to see what she or they have to say. I already can’t wait for next week:
We need something to look forward to. Conference play begins tonight and because while we stuffed ourselves with holiday cheer, the Pac was ballooning its RPI, distancing itself into relative obscurity. We know better. We know better and that’s why we’ve got twelve things to look forward to amongst so many other unlisted ones such as: When will Stanford have their big win? Their big loss? Can WSU climb out of the cellar? UCLA’s offense? USC’s offense? ASU? And yet still so much more.
Here’s just twelve things to look forward to as Pac-12 Conference play begins tonight:
This post, had it been written two months ago, would’ve looked a lot different than it does today. Back then, seeing as how I’m a big Booker fan, it would have evolved into another defense of his shot selection and gumption. We’d probably have revisited the Jayheave and his performance against then #10 Oregon where he dropped 27, 7, and 4 on (have to note this in an Askia column) 8-16 shooting. That would have made for a great post and likely unfolded a lot like this one.
Won’t be the case.
Not since Colorado’s season pivoted (I live in start-up land) and what the Buffs need from Booker, the once trigger happy sidekick. The Doc Holiday to Spencer’s Wyatt Earp. When it all changed, Askia has had to reign things in and be the Buffs’ facilitator. It wasn’t necessarily a strong suit of his. We often discuss poor decision making when addressing the matter of Askia. So how has he adjusted?
The first measure I’d like to examine is assist to turnover ratio. This is a less than scientific formula but it is a general indicator of a sound facilitator: distribute to friends, keep away from enemies. Here’s the five game rolling A/T ratio I’ve been subscribing to lately:
As you can see, there’s a correlation between not having your primary ball handler, not winning basketball games, and learning over time. This would suggest that it took Askia about five games to learn a new role. To begin facilitating things such as easy buckets. In the immediate post-injury slate, the Buffs were 1-4 and Booker, in his new role, saw his A:T ratio dive. And then it all began to change. He became more comfortable and distributing. The ball moved and the Buffs won.
When they began winning again, Colorado’s PPP returned to right about their season average (average: 1.08 vs. 1.05). During their 1-4 skid, the Buffs’ effectiveness dipped to 0.896ppp. You don’t need me to tell you that’s bad and conversely you don’t need me to tell you that getting back to their season average was good.
Now I won’t soon forget about Josh Scott and if you’re looking to beat Colorado, neither should you. But his game hasn’t had to significantly change the way Booker’s has. He’s upped his scoring but there are a number of factors that play into that. He’s getting more touches in the post and deserves a lot of credit for turning those touches into points, but he’s not necessarily playing a different role.
Booker, on the other hand, has made some changes. Let’s glance at his FGA:Assist ratio. In doing such, I think what we’ll see is Booker distributing more and shooting more effectively. Or at least marrying up two of his skills to more facilitate the Buffaloffense.
I find this to be a particularly Askia-centric point because his shot selection has so long been a point of contention. The gross numbers don’t necessarily indicate fewer shots, interestingly enough, but it appears he’s working harder to get others involved and better shots for himself. Our previous chart demonstrated that he was taking better care of the ball. This one shows us he’s perhaps taking better shots and getting others into good position. Furthermore, and this is probably a discussion for another time, if his role is to facilitate the offense, it seems he’s doing such.
But everything boils down to wins and losses. The Buffs have lost their last two games (AZ and Utah) and will now head to the Bay for another pair of road games. The type of game (road) the Buffs don’t win very often. As they currently sit, Colorado seems to be in the NCAA tournament but a four game losing streak heading into the Pac-12 tournament might not do them any favors.
Can Askia facilitate a win?
We returned from Colorado no worse for the wear and our favorite team had won. Boulder was a great trip and if you want the non-WANE tales let’s meet at another one of the Pac-12’s great locales and discuss it. Nevertheless, this week Spencer and I dive into the bubble and a lot of hypotheticals and awkward prognostication.
The Table:
1:05: Spencer gives the built in mic everything it can handle as we begin to talk about the Colorado Trip.
We were perusing the upper bowl of the Coors Event Center during halftime of Saturday’s Arizona-CU game when what I can only assume was an undergraduate encouraged me to “leave [my] f**cking stadium.”
But to say I was mistreated in Boulder would be a gross exaggeration. Quite the contrary. In fact, my favorite team in the world won by 27, shot 60%, garnered 1.32 points per possession, yielded no baskets for more than 10-minutes, held Xavier Johnson to 1-10 shooting, Jacob Hazzard got involved, and Aaron Gordon:
I had little to say to that kid. I declined his invitation carried on to my seat and then the rest of the night transpired. We’ll skip the basketball for now and I’ll go straight to a big shout out to the fine gentlemen who recognized me at Absinthe. I can only hope that the DJ has changed tunes by now and I thank you boys for the drinks.
And I thank you, Boulder, for another glorious trip. I beg an answer as to how I entered the Dark Horse (and its appropriate bathroom) in a T-shirt and jeans and exited to snow? Do the Wildcats bring the snow? We all know they brought the heat but was it snow, too? Alas, I saw old friends and new and a loud, involved crowd. On the latter, speaking bluntly, that crowd had little to cheer Saturday night. The aforementioned successes of my Wildcats gave them nothing to make noise for and Tad Boyle himself said they deserved more. But the effort those fans gave was impressive. It was deafeningly loud and while the Wildcats had an answer for each of their roars, the loyal Buffaloes responded with great support for their seniors, sending Ben Mills and Beau Gamble off in deserving senior fashion. Furthermore, Ben Mills’ family lead the Harlem Shake.
I booked things at the wrong Marriott but we got little else wrong that weekend. Once again the Shady Pony (I like this nickname) treated us right and then it was off to The Sink and a conglomeration of drinking establishments that saw us have a ball and a dance event. It’s what running around a college town is about. And when the night was down and the sun up, stories were shared, the game relived and brunch was had with the most dense number of attractive people I may have ever seen. Bravo, Highland Tap and Burger. The DJ was a heavy touch but the clientele made up for the noise. Good burger.
If I rode in your car, thanks for that.
As for the basketball, I’ll take the perspectives of two people. First, Tad Boyle. From his seat and in his shoes I’m torching that game tape. There’s nothing to look at and nothing to learn. An opposing team shot 60% in your house, there was poor effort, poor execution, and a general abandonment of the game plan. Address these items (defense on screens, 4 transition shots, general effort, etc.) and move along. No sense in dwelling.
Our second perspective shall be my own. I’ve already discussed some of the more impressive notes from Arizona’s game above and in yesterday’s review. Arizona’s tour d’force was an announcement of sorts but I was most impressed by the Wildcats’ bench. As I walked the upper loop, dismissing vitriolic requests of departure, I overheard rather valid commentary about CU’s position (down just 6) considering the half they’d just played. I mean, they’d started the game 0-14 from the field and to be down six was something of a miracle. Or at least a whistle. Because in a span of twenty game seconds, each of Rondae Hollis-Jefferson (5:12), Kaleb Tarczewski (5:04), and Aaron Gordon (4:52) picked up their second fouls. The Buffs were down twelve and Arizona was left to a lineup with a local from Tucson (Matt Korcheck) and a kid named Pitts. Before you could say CUnit, Colorado had rattled off seven straight. Five point game. Arizona timeout
Gordon and Tarczewski wouldn’t play the rest of the half if memory serves me correctly but the Wildcats would give up no further real estate during that final 4:37 of the half. It was this critical juncture, a moment when the most hostile crowd was itching to blow the Keg’s roof off, when a multitude of infrequently used players responded to their coaches plea to defend and opportunistically score. They did, like a set up man getting the ball to Mariano, they weathered that storm. And when the closers came in – again, after it was requested I get the f*** out – well they only missed four more shots.
Of final note, a closing observation, I saw a familiar application in use in front of us about mid-second half. The game was getting out of hand but in this young patron’s hand was a phone and an app and photos and swipes. Yes, I witnessed in-game-Tindering and the most notable was a a photo peruse of what appeared to be rather attractive lady. Photo 1 seemed adequate so he sauntered to the second. Attractive women plus child. Right swipe. App closed. Back to the game.
For you, Boulder, I’d swipe right.
